Bank warns of 'deep recession'

Really2

lostinrates wrote: »

I don't know. Where is NDG, is she ok?

she recived a threat to her son via PM and as stopped posting. Apparently she is still logging on. Their is a post on it (please ignore the bit where Carol try's to make out I was blaiming her I was not).

Perhaps she may PM with you but no one else as contacted her as far as I know.

Really2

tuggy12 wrote: »

Could someone explain why that is so?

The BOE said they would not do "unconventional" things untill rates were near 0%.

lostinrates

Really2 wrote: »

she recived a threat to her son via PM and as stopped posting. Apparently she is still logging on. Their is a post on it (please ignore the bit where Carol try's to make out I was blaiming her I was not).

Perhaps she may PM with you but no one else as contacted her as far as I know.

Oh how frightful.:eek: Poor NDG. I hope that it has been dealt with properly. I won't go hunting for the thread, I don't think that kind of happening is something I need to read about.

But if NDG is reading then I hope all is well and you are all safe.

Dithering_Dad

mbga9pgf wrote: »

Really, to be fair to wookster, Inflation and HPI dont go hand in hand. You can have 14% inflation and 0% HPI quite easily, simply because people cant afford to bid up house prices when they are struggling with the cost of groceries.

Until wage inflation catches up mind... Which its not going to for a long, long time.

Depends which index you're using to calculate inflation. CPI, RPI-X and RPI-Y do not include mortgage payments and so there is a de-linkage between inflation and HPI, RPI on the other hand, does include mortgage payments.

Given that the BoE's remit was to keep CPI under 3% and given that mortgage payments are not included in CPI, it's no surprise that house prices took off in such a crazy way - basically it was within no one's remit to control HPI.

Had the BoE been told to keep RPI under 3% then they would have put the brakes on HPI long before it went mad and we wouldn't be in the sorry state we're in now.

Cannon_Fodder

Really2

Cannon_Fodder wrote: »

So does that mean you think recovery will be the end of the year?

Wookster

Really2 wrote: »

So does that mean you think recovery will be the end of the year?

:rotfl:

That graph is seriously optimistic. This is going to last well beyond 2010.

Really2

Wookster wrote: »

:rotfl:

That graph is seriously optimistic. This is going to last well beyond 2010.

Did I post the graph?:rolleyes:

I was trying to clarify why the OP posted it. (but then why ask the OP when you can leap on me?:rolleyes: )

Dithering_Dad

Wookster wrote: »

:rotfl:

That graph is seriously optimistic. This is going to last well beyond 2010.

The graph stated that we could be back to zero growth by 2010, hardly optimistic. Most of the recessions since the Great Depression have generally only lasted 6 to 12 months. Incidently, the Great Depression lasted 3.5 yrs, though I think we're a long way from a depression.

Why do you think 'this' (I assume you mean recession - negative growth) is going to last well beyond 2010?

mbga9pgf

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_Kingdom

dithering, average length 2 years.

The only comparable (figures wise) recession that has happened similar to this one was indeed the great depression. Its optimistic because it shows an increase in growth mid 09 jet any justification as to where that recovery is coming from cannot be explained.

reason why: see this:




not due to peter out of the write downs till mid 2012. Tme to batten down the hatches. Unless you can cure people unable to pay for mortgages seeing as they are unemployed. Any solutions?

You cant just say "the average recession lasts 18 months and so will this one". Well you can. Like the BOE have tried to. What aspect of realism it compares to is lost on me. Seems flawed logic.


As for GDP, or finance sector alone accounted for 10%. Want to hazard a guess as to how much of that is left? Retail accounts for close to 25%. Want to hazard a guess on that? Service sector is huge, yet with global economy in deep freeze, who can we service?