Average house price to continue falls after Jan blip

tommy75

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/rogerbootle/4560861/House-prices-have-much-further-to-fall-and-that-is-no-bad-thing.html

http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2009/feb/05/house-price-false-dawn

IveSeenTheLight

tommy75 wrote: »

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/rogerbootle/4560861/House-prices-have-much-further-to-fall-and-that-is-no-bad-thing.html

http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2009/feb/05/house-price-false-dawn

At the moment surely its just crystal ball opinion / best guess.
there is a high probability that average house prices will fall again next month, but not fact until the figures are finalised

chucky

Tommy - do you think this will affect property prices in Bury?

botchjob

Patrick Collinson speaks sense but Roger Bootle (Telegraph piece) is like one of the pantomime bears who post on here. Bootle has been getting his predictions wrong for many, many, many years so anything he says should be taken with a large pinch of scepticism. This is the same bloke who predicted a 20% drop would take place between mid-2003 and 2005.

carolt

botchjob wrote: »

Patrick Collinson speaks sense but Roger Bootle (Telegraph piece) is like one of the pantomime bears who post on here. Bootle has been getting his predictions wrong for many, many, many years so anything he says should be taken with a large pinch of scepticism. This is the same bloke who predicted a 20% drop would take place between mid-2003 and 2005.

Er..that would be the same widely-respected Roger Bootle who was one of the few economists to correctly pinpoint the bubble and come closest to predicting the massive falls we have seen over the lat year?

I suppose it all depends on your perspective. Better - to my mind - to call the peak too early than not to call at all.

ess0two

carolt wrote: »

Er..that would be the same widely-respected Roger Bootle who was one of the few economists to correctly pinpoint the bubble and come closest to predicting the massive falls we have seen over the lat year?

I suppose it all depends on your perspective. Better - to my mind - to call the peak too early than not to call at all.[/quote

We can all second guess to which you last paragraph implies.

tommy75

chucky wrote: »

Tommy - do you think this will affect property prices in Bury?

Do I think that particular newspaper report will affect houses in Bury? Is that what you mean? If so, I don't think that report will affect anywhere. I don't think any article will have much effect on any of the market in particular. You didn't have to look through my posts to find where I'm looking to buy (although now looking at Macclesfield area) you could of just asked. I'm well aware you want houses to rise from recent posts you have made. I'm not sure, but it seems you have something to lose from house price deflation. Maybe this is why you feel house prices are not overvalued? I am in the position of buying so we have different views but what I'm seeing is prices throughout my area hardly being reduced at all.

carolt

ess0two wrote: »

We can all second guess to which you last paragraph implies.

Eh? Can you post that in English please?

housesitter

carolt wrote: »

one of the few economists to correctly pinpoint the bubble and come closest to predicting the massive falls we have seen over the lat year?

Throw enough darts and eventually you'll get a bullseye.


Plenty it saw it coming. Few called it correctly. He had more than the one guess.

ess0two

carolt wrote: »

Er..that would be the same widely-respected Roger Bootle who was one of the few economists to correctly pinpoint the bubble and come closest to predicting the massive falls we have seen over the lat year?

I suppose it all depends on your perspective. Better - to my mind - to call the peak too early than not to call at all.

In other words the guy just 'second guessed' a crash,albeit yrs later,bit like saying houses will rise by 10% in 5yrs time.
If they dont can i still claim credit if it happens 15yrs later,understand?

botchjob

carolt wrote: »

Er..that would be the same widely-respected Roger Bootle who was one of the few economists to correctly pinpoint the bubble and come closest to predicting the massive falls we have seen over the lat year?

I suppose it all depends on your perspective. Better - to my mind - to call the peak too early than not to call at all.

He called the bubble every year for the past 6+ years. I guess at some point he would be proved right! But if i were a FTB, trying to work out when to buy, I would be very wary about listening to his predictions.