Average house price to continue falls after Jan blip

carolt

ess0two wrote: »

In other words the guy just 'second guessed' a crash,albeit yrs later,bit like saying houses will rise by 10% in 5yrs time.
If they dont can i still claim credit if it happens 15yrs later,understand?

That's true - but you have to compare him to other economists, like say Kalestsky, who were still claiming everything was going swimmingly until the second half of 2008, when it was obvious to anyone with half an eye (no Clarkson-style pun intended) that the economy was up the spout.

stevetodd

botchjob wrote: »

He called the bubble every year for the past 6+ years. I guess at some point he would be proved right! But if i were a FTB, trying to work out when to buy, I would be very wary about listening to his predictions.

So what you are saying is that the botchjob post was actually insulting pantomine horses, I think that's unfair pantomine horses perform a useful function.

Whoops it was a pantomine bear!

macaque_2

Blib? A blib for me is a transient and unexpected deviation in a trend.

There is nothing unexpected about these results. The announcement of a suckers rally from the Halifax was a racing certainty. With every suckers rally, the Halifax sell off a few more intensive care mortgages to buyers with healthy deposits (or mortgage mules to use their correct title which I just invented).

There are a hundred different ways a statistician can cook the numbers and these have a distinct smell of garlic.

IveSeenTheLight

macaque wrote: »

Blib? A blib for me is a transient and unexpected deviation in a trend.

There is nothing unexpected about these results. The announcement of a suckers rally from the Halifax was a racing certainty. With every suckers rally, the Halifax sell off a few more intensive care mortgages to buyers with healthy deposits (or mortgage mules to use their correct title which I just invented).

There are a hundred different ways a statistician can cook the numbers and these have a distinct smell of garlic.

Do you really believe this?

dervish

botchjob wrote: »

Patrick Collinson speaks sense but Roger Bootle (Telegraph piece) is like one of the pantomime bears who post on here. Bootle has been getting his predictions wrong for many, many, many years so anything he says should be taken with a large pinch of scepticism. This is the same bloke who predicted a 20% drop would take place between mid-2003 and 2005.

Although I agree with the overall sentiment I don't think using Bootle, which is quite an already run down area, as a guage will be quite accurate.

Sure, deprived areas prices may have to fall more than the eventual average just to persuade people to go and live there. However you could also argue that they dont have a great deal of scope to falll futher.

I used to live in Walton and I had a friend in Bootle who bought their house in 1994 for under 10k.

StevieJ

carolt wrote: »

Er..that would be the same widely-respected Roger Bootle who was one of the few economists to correctly pinpoint the bubble and come closest to predicting the massive falls we have seen over the lat year?

I suppose it all depends on your perspective. Better - to my mind - to call the peak too early than not to call at all.

Tell you what Carol, he was predicting massive drops in circa 2003, but in Oct 2007 he was predicting -5% not exactly the Oracle :rotfl:
Capital EconomicsRoger BootleOct 2007 5%UK2008

Capital Economics see the economy slowing in 2008 and have cut their forecast yet again.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/index.php

StevieJ

Oh I just noticed he is predicting -35% again, I feel safe with my 20% now


Capital EconomicsRoger BootleJun 2008 35%UK2008-2010

Revised forecast: House prices may fall up to 35pc over the next three years, Capital Economics has warned, in one of the bleakest forecasts yet for the UK's property market.

Cleaver

carolt wrote: »

I suppose it all depends on your perspective. Better - to my mind - to call the peak too early than not to call at all.

Just so I can feel very smug at some point down the line, I see house prices rising again and then there being another crash at some point between 2020 and 2030.

stevetodd

StevieJ wrote: »

Oh I just noticed he is predicting -35% again, I feel safe with my 20% now



Capital EconomicsRoger BootleJun 2008 35%UK2008-2010

Revised forecast: House prices may fall up to 35pc over the next three years, Capital Economics has warned, in one of the bleakest forecasts yet for the UK's property market.

I think your criticsim is very unfair, I am sure his magical roullette wheel actually works, red = fall, black - rise and the number is the percentage.

StevieJ

stevetodd wrote: »

I think your criticsim is very unfair, I am sure his magical roullette wheel actually works, red = fall, black - rise and the number is the percentage.

If I had his luck I wouldn't go anywhere near a casino :eek: The real weirdie is that people actually thought he got it right
I wouldn't even let him pick my lottery numbers.

It is not only Carol
Norma Cohen from the Financial Times recently said "Among private sector economists, some of the most gloomy forecasts - now, seemingly, the most accurate - have come from Roger Bootle and Jonathan Loynes at Capital Economics."

I have to include a disclaimer here, I extracted the forecasts from HPC so the accuracy depends on them, I do not have access to the forecasts that Norma is looking at but I can't believe they are the same figures that HPC are quoting