Average % drop by region??

mitchaa

ad9898 wrote: »

One thing's for sure, the falls have been gigantic in such a short space of time, and with that, no one can possibly predict where we are going to be in 5 years. It's a staggering loss, a loss that will not continue on the course it has taken so far, it must moderate at some point, perhaps January is the start of that moderation, much like the previous crash.

I do agree with you partly, but i'm not so sure i would use the word gigantic as when looking at the halifax tables, the market peaked August 2007.

17 months have passed since then and we are at the moment around 18% down according to their figures.

Aug 2007 £199,770
Jan 2009 £163,966

A fall of £35,804 from peak or 17.9%

Certainly not gigantic at an average of 1.05%pm but more so steady and sustainable. (I wouldn't like to lose a real £35k though so i guess this is what you are getting at)

I still hold my prediction of between 25-30% so i do suspect 10% falls or so still coming this year.

ad9898_3

mitchaa wrote: »

I still hold my prediction of between 25-30% so i do suspect 10% falls or so still coming this year.

Brown is throwing everything including the kitchen sink (using everyone else's money of course:rolleyes:) to bail out the indebted in this country, so even though I have said in earlier posts that I think 40% down by the end of the year, your 30% figure could be more accurate.

IveSeenTheLight

mitchaa wrote: »

I agree it's likely to be a rogue month but Februarys drops will just cancel out Januarys gains and we'll be back to where we were having just lost 2 months.

It is possible that February could drop and wipe out January's gains.
Just Like January's gains wiped out Decembers losses.

What is for sure is that house prices will not stabalise until the credit issue stabalises and confidence in the credit market leads to confidence in the housing market.

ad9898_3

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

What is for sure is that house prices will not stabalise until the credit issue stabalises and confidence in the credit market leads to confidence in the housing market.

I think the problem will be is that when the credit market stablises, it will stablise at a much lower level than we have seen in the recent past, the money no longer exists as it did even 18 months ago, this is a fact, as it is playing out right now in front of our eyes. Confidence in the housing market will not return whilst we are in recession and unemployment is rising.

StevieJ

ad9898 wrote: »

I think the problem will be is that when the credit market stablises, it will stablise at a much lower level than we have seen in the recent past, the money no longer exists as it did even 18 months ago, this is a fact, as it is playing out right now in front of our eyes. Confidence in the housing market will not return whilst we are in recession and unemployment is rising.

But what if high inflation suddenly springs to life as the recession eases?

ad9898_3

StevieJ wrote: »

But what if high inflation suddenly springs to life as the recession eases?

Then IR's will also rise, putting huge pressure on home owners, to be honest I think that's the reason Clown hasn't fired up the printing presses. With unemployment generally rising for 12-18 months after the recession ends, wage inflation will be kept to a minimum, meaning everyone will be much worse off. Home owners would be caught in a vice, with inflation on one side and IR's on the other. The housing market would then capitulate. QE is an absolute last resort that even the Clown wants to avoid.

StevieJ

ad9898 wrote: »

Then IR's will also rise, putting huge pressure on home owners, to be honest I think that's the reason Clown hasn't fired up the printing presses. With unemployment generally rising for 12-18 months after the recession ends, wage inflation will be kept to a minimum, meaning everyone will be much worse off. Home owners would be caught in a vice, with inflation on one side and IR's on the other. The housing market would then capitulate. QE is an absolute last resort that even the Clown wants to avoid.

Not the ones that have fixed for 5/10 years I accept it will affect FTB's that is why they should get in and fix in the next 12 months if they can, the timing will be delicate with the trade off between falling house prices and interest rates.

ad9898_3

StevieJ wrote: »

Not the ones that have fixed for 5/10 years I accept it will affect FTB's that is why they should get in and fix in the next 12 months if they can.

What % of the market is fixed at the moment ?, Whatever it is, it's reducing as people who are coming off them go onto a cheaper SVR or a tracker, a very small amount would be on 10 year fixes I would say.The fact that you reckon FTB's will be affected means 90% of the market will be, no FTB, no chain, no sale.

I agree about the fixing if I was buying, but the rates are crap, over 6% for a 10 year fix. I don't fancy putting my 40% deposit down to watch it being whittled away over the next few years while the banks are coining it in at over 5x the base rate.

IveSeenTheLight

ad9898 wrote: »

I think the problem will be is that when the credit market stablises, it will stablise at a much lower level than we have seen in the recent past, the money no longer exists as it did even 18 months ago, this is a fact, as it is playing out right now in front of our eyes. Confidence in the housing market will not return whilst we are in recession and unemployment is rising.

I read with interest today profits released by Barclays and reported also by RBS.

Barclays were reporting £6 Billion profits with £600 million in bonuses while RBS was reporting bonuses of £1 Billion:eek:

Are we sure there is no money in the system.
Two businesses, each showing quite a substantial profit.

StevieJ

ad9898 wrote: »

I agree about the fixing if I was buying, but the rates are crap, over 6% for a 10 year fix. I don't fancy putting my 40% deposit down to watch it being whittled away over the next few years while the banks are coining it in at over 5x the base rate.

I thought you could get under 5% with a 40% deposit?

http://www.britannia.co.uk/home/mortgage/fixed/10_year/index.html