Average % drop by region??

archie9uk

pickledpink wrote: »

Property prices ROSE in January of this year. Haven't you heard?:money:

Yes, I have heard. But overall they have fallen over the past year.

I am struggling to make much sense of "average" figures. It seems like they can be very easily manipulated, and do not necessarily relate to the real world.

Is there a difference between rural and urban areas, between flats and houses, between large and small properties for example? i.e. is it the case that certain properties and areas will be holding their value much better than others? It is interesting that the Right Move report that Becky Marshall helpfully suggested I refer to (thanks Becky! :T) mentions only a 3% annual decrease in London, the lowest drop in the country, yet London is the area with the highest and least affordable property prices? Somehow doesn't make sense to me. My region apparently has one of the biggest annual decreases, but the house prices in my village are no different to what they were this time last year??

geoffky

some good graphs and reports here..

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/graphs-index.php

IveSeenTheLight

archie9uk wrote: »

Is there somewhere I can look for average percentage falls in value by region, postcode etc? As far as I can see, in my area, prices are pretty much the same as they have been for the last couple of years. (But properties seem to be taking longer to sell and there are fewer for sale.)

For England and Wales, I would use the Land registry
http://www.landregistry.gov.uk/

for Scotland I use the Registers of Scotland Executive Agency
http://www.ros.gov.uk/productsandservices/lpd_stats.html

These are the most conclusive figures (although lags by a couple of months) of various areas.

You are correct you need to look more specifically than the UK average :T

IveSeenTheLight

Deleted_User wrote: »

Page 6 any good?

http://www1.landregistry.gov.uk/assets/library/documents/29012009e.pdf

Everyone knows LR reports lag and this report is for Decembers figures, not January's

mitchaa

ad9898 wrote: »

Fortunately if you take away the seasonal adjustment from the Halifax figures, it seems they actually fell by around 1.1%, which tallys closely with the Nationwide's 1.3% fall. It was all just VI spin. Next month you will see more inexorable falls. Sorry to burst your bubble (no pun intended:D)

Come on then smarty pants, prove the above, as what i can see, the average price of a home according to the Halifax index increased by just over £4k last month.

No ifs no buts, seasonal adjustments, bladdy bladdy blah, when we look at the figures they speak for themselves. The index rose by over £4k.

Black is black, no it isn't, black is white:rotfl:

Come on this is getting ridiculous.

ad9898_3

Here is a graph from HPC, showing the falls of this crash and the last one, from both Halifax & Nationwide.

It's not unusual to have 'gains' during a crash, in fact looking at the graph it's surprising the 'gain' in January hadn't happened earlier.

ad9898_3

mitchaa wrote: »

Come on then smarty pants, prove the above, as what i can see, the average price of a home according to the Halifax index increased by just over £4k last month.

No ifs no buts, seasonal adjustments, bladdy bladdy blah, when we look at the figures they speak for themselves. The index rose by over £4k.

Black is black, no it isn't, black is white:rotfl:

Come on this is getting ridiculous.

Sorry mitchaa, who am I to deny you your moment in the sun. Soak up those rays mate.:D

mitchaa

ad9898 wrote: »

Here is a graph from HPC, showing the falls of this crash and the last one, from both Halifax & Nationwide.

It's not unusual to have 'gains' during a crash, in fact looking at the graph it's surprising the 'gain' in January hadn't happened earlier.

I agree, a rogue month, but Februarys drops will cancel out Januarys gains and we'll be where we were in March back in November at exactly the same point.

That will be 3-4mths of 'stagnation' if you like. (No im not predicting stagnation just now, purely talking of the figures presented to us)

If you look at the actual figures the change was not 1.9%, it was in fact 2.5% Jan-Dec comparison.

mitchaa

ad9898 wrote: »

Sorry mitchaa, who am I to deny you your moment in the sun. Soak up those rays mate.:D

Jan 09 £163,966
Dec 08 £159,896
Nov 08 £163,605

If you get your calculator out and calculate the % difference between Dec and Jan figures you will note a 2.5% increase.

Fact is, house prices now are higher than what they were in November 08, true or false?

It's not me arguing black is white here buddy;)

I agree it's likely to be a rogue month but Februarys drops will just cancel out Januarys gains and we'll be back to where we were having just lost 2 months.

So all these -20% predictions for 2009, they need to battle against +2.5% first, then down to 0, then into the negatives;) I suspect Feb will cancel out January gains leaving 10mths of the year left in order to get these 20% drops.

ad9898_3

mitchaa wrote: »

I agree, a rogue month, but Februarys drops will cancel out Januarys gains and we'll be where we were in March back in November at exactly the same point.

That will be 3-4mths of 'stagnation' if you like. (No im not predicting stagnation just now, purely talking of the figures presented to us)

If you look at the actual figures the change was not 1.9%, it was in fact 2.5% Jan-Dec comparison.

One thing's for sure, the falls have been gigantic in such a short space of time, and with that, no one can possibly predict where we are going to be in 5 years. It's a staggering loss, a loss that will not continue on the course it has taken so far, it must moderate at some point, perhaps January is the start of that moderation, much like the previous crash.