shares to beat the recession

cagey76

Anyone have any tips for shares that are likely to do well during the next year or so.

McDoanlds for me, I have several recent articles suggesting that it could do well.

http://www.chasingprofits.com/2009/02/mcdonalds-share-in-recession.html

tradetime

during the next year or so

That's a fairly short time horizon, I'd be inclined to look at anything that is considered "defensive" Pharmaceuticals, Consumer staples, Low cost providers, McDonanlds as you mention, possibly low cost retail (don't know what stores there are here in UK, Lidl, I guess if it's listed.

gozomark

a recession is already discounted, so unless you are expecting a worse recession than the average investor, then you are probably too late.

tradetime

gozomark wrote: »

a recession is already discounted, so unless you are expecting a worse recession than the average investor, then you are probably too late.

True, but if it drags on as some think into late 2010 a defensive port will probably outperform. Personally, I'd be inclined to think a little longer term, and start positioning for the next move.

cagey76

gozomark wrote: »

a recession is already discounted, so unless you are expecting a worse recession than the average investor, then you are probably too late.

I'm not sure a recession is fully discounted in all prices, neither is a companies ability to act to perform better during one.

McDonalds is a case in point, if they are avtively doing all they can to exploit the current situation, then maybe figures end up being higher than expected, leading to a higher share price.

gozomark

McDonalds was the best performing stock in the Dow last year (I think thats true), for the reasons you give.

I,_Brian

I go for financials, personally - they are so battered and so distressed that many are at multi-decade lows, and have already had a recession or even nationalised priced into many. I try to minimise investing in UK financials, though, and focus most on US financials - much more vigorous and prone to bigger swings, and with the US stimulus package in preparation, financials are especially likely to benefit. Their existing low valuation means that most are ready for double-digit growth over February in my opinion.

97trophy

I,_Brian wrote: »

ITheir existing low valuation means that most are ready for double-digit growth over February in my opinion.

any banks in particular that you have in mind?

clairbear_3

now is not the time to buy for long term
however shares with high divs are preferred, if u get stuck with them at least youll earn something
ideally buy in next slump and sell after rally:beer:

tradetime

clairbear wrote: »

now is not the time to buy for long term
however shares with high divs are preferred, if u get stuck with them at least youll earn something
ideally buy in next slump and sell after rally:beer:

Depends a lot on what you are buying, and how much of it,. Dividends are fine, but if things get as bad as you think there's no guarantee they'll continue

cagey76

clairbear wrote: »

now is not the time to buy for long term
however shares with high divs are preferred, if u get stuck with them at least youll earn something
ideally buy in next slump and sell after rally:beer:

Interesting, I think its probably not a bad time now if you have the long term in mind, but saying that I think we will have slumps along the way.