Why will the UK economy be "Worst in West" (IMF prediction)

itsallagame_2

Rochdale_Pioneers wrote: »

Well the IMF have already lost this prediction. Was listening to the PM programme on my way home, and the Irish forecast a 4% decline this year. That beats both the IMF's current forecast for the UK of -2.8% AND their previous forecast that we would grow by 1.6%

Perhaps they are being more honest?

Rochdale_Pioneers

Perhaps they are. Either way, their forecast is far worse than the IMF stated it would be.

SGE1

Wookster wrote: »

For a number of reasons:

- Much of UK consumption is imported meaning we do not produce very much ourselves (relative to what we consume)
- Real economic growth in the UK has been much lower than the reported rises in GDP over the last few years, masked by the fact that we have borrowed (at personal, corporate and state level) to fund spending/ consumption. This has masked the true mediocracy of the UK economy
- The UK has a poorly skilled workforce
- The UK has been overly dependant on financial services which are shrinking permanently
- The UK is a monstrously expensive place to do business
- We have a government that simply does not understand this

I'm sorry, but some of that is just plain wrong.

1) Yes, we import - but so does the rest of Europe! This doesn't explain the differential.
2) That makes no sense. Please explain.
3) We don't have a poorly skilled workforce, that's nonsense. The fact that some people have mediocre literacy and numeracy skills (reported in the news recently) doesn't mean we are poorly skilled. For s start, this point is in direct contrast to the next one.
4) Yes, we are very dependent on financial services - but the fact they they're shrinking is a symptom of the recession, not a cause.
5) The UK isn't a very expensive place to do business. In fact, in many areas it is one of the most lax areas. Certainly compared to Europe. So again, it doesn't explain the differential.
6) I think the Government understand it very well, actually.

Wookster

SGE1 wrote: »

I'm sorry, but some of that is just plain wrong.

I'm afraid that's the view of the optimistic who just don't understand where our "growth" over the last 10 years has come from. My post at the bottom of the previous page says a bit more.