Why will the UK economy be "Worst in West" (IMF prediction)

kennyboy66_2

Wookster wrote: »

This is another thing that has masked the true mediocracy of the UK workforce. Hard working Eastern Europeans.

Or made our skills and work ethic deficiencies more obvious ?

It is no surprise when many degree educated Poles have come to do relatively menial jobs.

WTF?_2

BlondeHeadOn wrote: »

I hear the message, but I am still not quite sure why the UK economy is so much worse-placed then other countries to weather the downturn. I know I read this board a lot (:o ), but even so I am not quite sure of the details of what makes the UK so vulnerable.

I'm sure a lot of you can enlighten me! Please?

Easily explained - the IMF are HPC doomers who get aroused when there's bad UK economics news.

Quite possibly they're also hoping to buy a house and are talking the market down.

Rochdale_Pioneers

kennyboy66 wrote: »

Simply wrong.

As a proportion of our GDP we export more than the USA.

Thats a number that includes Financial Services though, and you have to ask what state that industry will be in when we all come out of this. Our non-financial exports are significantly lower than they once were - we privatised and deregulated so that the free market could decide where its most efficient to produce goods, and so the jobs went elsewhere.

And when we get one of our few remaining mass export businesses - cars - in trouble needing some cash to keep it going, the free-market loons advise against saying that we shouldn't interfere with the market. Well France and germany are subsidising their car industries so if we don't then thats another chunk of manufacturing leaving the UK thanks to "free" market forces.

And then the very same people complain that we don't manufacture enough things! If we had gone down the same protected subsidy route as the Germans - which they object to - then we'd still have mass manufacturing!

kennyboy66_2

Rochdale_Pioneers wrote: »

Thats a number that includes Financial Services though, and you have to ask what state that industry will be in when we all come out of this. Our non-financial exports are significantly lower than they once were - we privatised and deregulated so that the free market could decide where its most efficient to produce goods, and so the jobs went elsewhere.

And when we get one of our few remaining mass export businesses - cars - in trouble needing some cash to keep it going, the free-market loons advise against saying that we shouldn't interfere with the market. Well France and germany are subsidising their car industries so if we don't then thats another chunk of manufacturing leaving the UK thanks to "free" market forces.

And then the very same people complain that we don't manufacture enough things! If we had gone down the same protected subsidy route as the Germans - which they object to - then we'd still have mass manufacturing!

I'd agree - although I suspect German manufacturing and engineering success is as much about culture, skills and industry structure than government subsidies.

BlondeHeadOn

!!!!!!? wrote: »

Easily explained - the IMF are HPC doomers who get aroused when there's bad UK economics news.

Quite possibly they're also hoping to buy a house and are talking the market down.

Ah - that makes so much sense, of course!! Should have thought of that oe...

:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:

Rochdale_Pioneers

One question - this is the IMF making a forecast.

Is this the same IMF who forecasted UK growth of 1.6% in both 2008 and 2009?

Much is being made of this latest forecast along the lines of "The IMF said so so it must be true". Is their other forecast also true then? Didn't the Sunday Times declare IMF forecasts to be 42nd out of 42 organisations in terms of accuracy last October?

mr_jetlag

Rochdale_Pioneers wrote: »

Much is being made of this latest forecast along the lines of "The IMF said so so it must be true". Is their other forecast also true then? Didn't the Sunday Times declare IMF forecasts to be 42nd out of 42 organisations in terms of accuracy last October?

That may be so, but the IMF also sets the conditions on any rescue funds for distressed economies, so being pointed out as "worst in the west" by them won't do the UK any favors in the bond markets and sterling.

Though as I type this we've just gone over 1.43 again... So maybe nobody believes them out there either!

Kenny4315

BlondeHeadOn wrote: »

I hear the message, but I am still not quite sure why the UK economy is so much worse-placed ...

Two reasons :

MR CLOWN :mad:

&

HS DARLING :mad:

Wookster

kennyboy66 wrote: »

While this may be true (the imports bit), this does not contribute to making "our" recession worse.
In fact the opposite is true - in a world wide recession the more you export the worse off you will normally be as trade decreases.

Well what are all these 3 million people going to do when they are unemployed? At least if we had a bigger agricultural industry (for example)there would be something for them to do...

kennyboy66 wrote: »

GDP growth is what it is, it may have been increased by borrowing (corporate), however consumer borrowing to buy imported shiny goods has no impact on GDP at all directly.

Let me rephrase my point - reported GDP growth over the last 10 years has significantly diverged from increase in wealth, the difference being debt that has come through the so called international money markets which have "dried up". That has increased consumption in the UK and shops, restaurants, construction companies have increased their activities to be able to cope with this increased consumption. Now that that excessive consumption is vanishing those industries that have built up to feed it are dissappearing (e.g. surplus capacity in the car manufacturing space). This is what I mean when I say this has masked the mediocracy of the UK economy.

Rochdale_Pioneers

Well the IMF have already lost this prediction. Was listening to the PM programme on my way home, and the Irish forecast a 4% decline this year. That beats both the IMF's current forecast for the UK of -2.8% AND their previous forecast that we would grow by 1.6%