Recession 100% official now

treliac

StevieJ wrote: »

I must say discussions of the 70's and 80's are very interesting, if you lived in those times you realise how historical context can be distorted even though it is not that long ago. It makes you wonder about our historical views of for example The Middle Ages and other more distant periods of history:D

Agree 100%. Also, any historical referencing, near or distant, is going to be highly subjective to one's personal experience, location (the 70s/80s experiences were vastly different according to whereabouts in the country you were), your position in society, research tools, etc. etc.

There's only the broad picture and that can be very misleading. It gives a context but says little about what each of us are experiencing. In fact, exactly like life today.

Generali

treliac wrote: »

Generali, What's going on in Australia's economy now and where do you see it going in the future?

Can you say in what ways they have run their economy differently or similarly to ours? And how do individuals manage their personal finances by comparison?

Hope you don't mind the questions, but the comparison interests me.

Thanks.

Can you say in what ways they have run their economy differently or similarly to ours? And how do individuals manage their personal finances by comparison?


Australia is for the most part a primary producer. They dig stuff out of the ground or grow it in fields and sell those things at home and to Asian people. That really drives the local economy. This is a massive difference.

Also, the Aussie economy has a different driver for its rules and regulations. In the UK, rules seem to be all about red tape and box ticking. In Aus they want you to have a ticket for everything. If you want to be a barman you need to pass the Responsible Service of Alcohol test. To spray pesticide you need to do a 2 day course. The UK seems to go for less trained staff with lots of pernicaty rules for the companies to follow. As a result, Aus has lots of small companies compared to the UK, anecdotally at least.

There is a sizable (although smaller than the UK) trade deficit - that is to say the Aussies import more than they export, mostly cars, oil and 'toys' (for kids and adults).

The Federal budget is roughly in balance but won't be for much longer. There is no net public debt in Aus. Personal debt is high. Unfunded pension promises aren't increasing as everyone has 'super' (Google it - too dull to explain).

People do much more for themselves here - they have that Frontier mentality like the US-ians do. It seems like everyone has a 'hobby car' that they have been in the process of doing up for the last 20 years. If they're moving house then they'll ring round a bunch of mates and get a couple of 'utes' (pick-up trucks) and everyone will muck in. We moved here and after a week we had a garage full of decent furniture including a 1 y/o washing maching, TV etc. All we need to buy is a matress for the bed, a stove and a fridge and we have a (sparcely) furnished house. No question of us paying. I guess the word I'm searching for is community - you don't need Socialism if you have community.

What's going on in Australia's economy now and where do you see it going in the future?

The Aussies have been pretty compacent about the future until recently. They saw foreign banks going bust and saw theirs continuing ok and thought that would be that.

Unfortunately we're now getting the secondary effects. Small mining firms are going bust and the Big Boys are laying off staff. Retail firms are reducing staffing and the whole thing has come as a very nasty shock. IMO, things will get pretty horrid here pretty quickly - I've given myself a deadline of end of Feb to get a decent job before I get a job as a train driver or similar; a Govt job paying pretty good money that I can get an income from to ride out the recession hopefully.

When we first arrived here 8 weeks ago, friends and family would ask me what I thought the prospects were for the Aussie economy and I said what I thought which is lousy short term (due to Asians not having any money as US-ians and Europeans can't afford to buy stuff no more) and good longer term as long as the water thing gets sorted finally. They didn't really know what to think as it was at odds with their world view but I think they respect my views on stuff like that, mostly as they don't have much interest/knowledge about it I suspect.

Fundamentally, the Aussies are in possibly a unique position for a developed nation in that they produce nearly everything they need (bar oil and they even produce a little of that), have no history of tyranny (debatable I know - just ask the Aboriginals or the earlier freed convicts) and what they do produce is in great demand elsewhere and almost always will be.

The biggest risk of things going badly wrong here is invasion by the Chinese or Indonesians. This would be a very tough country to invade and hold. There are a lot of privately held weapons and an awful lot of desert. Supply chains would be a nightmare too.

treliac

Generali wrote: »

Australia......

Thanks for a fascinating 'mini-view' of things over there.

What comes across most strongly to me about society, is the sense of community spirit, though that is probably mainly between people in the same communities rather than cross-communities. However since they are, I guess, not as multi-cultural as the UK things probably feel a lot easier in terms of living alongside your fellow humans.

I like the idea that people seem to take more responsibility for themselves, which has been fostered out of vast swathes of Brits.

Apparently, their govts understand human nature better than our govt and are prepared to back their knowledge by regulation and by ensuring that standards of competence and responsibility are met, rather than leaving it to hope or inefficient bureaucracy.

If Aussies are more self-reliant, personally and in terms of their natural resources and economic production, then good luck to them. It sounds a good place to be.

StevieJ

treliac wrote: »

Agree 100%. Also, any historical referencing, near or distant, is going to be highly subjective to one's personal experience, location (the 70s/80s experiences were vastly different according to whereabouts in the country you were), your position in society, research tools, etc. etc.

There's only the broad picture and that can be very misleading. It gives a context but says little about what each of us are experiencing. In fact, exactly like life today.

I guess 1915 would have seemed a little bit different if you were 'up to your neck in muck and bullets' at Gallipoli ( a quote from my grandad who was there in the RM's) or Winston Churchill who simply made a complete !!!! up of the whole engagement and was then demoted and moved on Bring back Blackadder.

MrsB2100

I'm curious about 'protectionisim' and exactly what that entails? I understand this is a very bad idea - and I believe was at least partially responsible for the recession in the 1930's turning into the depression. But I dont quite get what it actually means? The reason I ask this is because I lost my job recently as it was outsourced to India / Europe because it's cheaper to employ staff there. But, because this seems to be prevalent everywhere, I am having difficulty getting another job doing what I was doing, as everyone is at it! (I dont remember this being a factor of the recession in the '90's?)

And of course, the more people who lost their jobs to outsourcing, the more the unemployment figures rise, the less people can buy and the more people lose their homes. Which leads me to think that 'maybe' (and it's a big maybe!), the banks were not altogether irresponsible in their lending patterns? Of course, there have been some spectacular !!!!-ups being uncovered now, but I'm talking about the folks that we've read about who bought houses but now cannot pay for them?

I will fight tooth and nail to keep my home, but if this keeps up and I cannot get another job when this one finishes, I'll have no choice but to become another statistic. Mortgage insurance only pays out while you're signing on ... but if you're offered a temp job, you cant turn it down so it's a catch 22 situation ... take a temp job for a month and lose your insurance or refuse the job and lose any benefits you may be entitled to ... which means you cant sign on, so no insurance! (I believe, anyway - guess which category I fell into!)

Incidentally, I'm in accounts so virtually all of these kinds of jobs are thin on the ground, with increasingly more of us joining the dole queue. On a lighter note though, one of the employment agencies I'm with dosent believe that this is as bad as the recession of the early 90's, which is nice!

So, back to my original question: What exactly is protectionisim? And why is it so wrong?

amcluesent

I reckon 9% GDP contraction in 2009-10. Definitely going to be a depression.

Generali

treliac wrote: »

Thanks for a fascinating 'mini-view' of things over there.

What comes across most strongly to me about society, is the sense of community spirit, though that is probably mainly between people in the same communities rather than cross-communities. However since they are, I guess, not as multi-cultural as the UK things probably feel a lot easier in terms of living alongside your fellow humans.

I like the idea that people seem to take more responsibility for themselves, which has been fostered out of vast swathes of Brits.

Apparently, their govts understand human nature better than our govt and are prepared to back their knowledge by regulation and by ensuring that standards of competence and responsibility are met, rather than leaving it to hope or inefficient bureaucracy.

If Aussies are more self-reliant, personally and in terms of their natural resources and economic production, then good luck to them. It sounds a good place to be.

I reckon Sydney is much more multi-culti than London. They do however take a different approach as it's expected that you'll learn English and become Australian rather than be part of a minority - I'm as much a foreigner as someone from Vietnam or Indonesia I think.

Country areas are still very white (sometimes with Aboriginals too, especially up north).

I think you sum up the bureaucratic ideal here - give people skills (and require them to have them) then let them get on with things for the most part.

The self reliance is an important part of the national myth. They like to think they're one step away from being stock men or Jackaroos/Jillaroos.

It's a very good place to be. I can understand why some Brits hate it but I don't think I'll ever hate it myself. I could see myself getting bored eventually I suppose.

stevetodd

akks wrote: »

There is now the real prospect of riots on the streets of Britain!

I'm a bit busy today but after seeing your post I hurled a dustbin through my neighbours lounge window, is that ok for now? I promise to start throwing petrol bombs at the weekend, just in case my wife asks why I am doing it? She may say why not take the dog for a walk instead (which to be honest is what I wanted to do but after seeing your post its obvious that we should all do our bit and riot).

cogito

Are we really richer: average household debt is £7,650 (exc. mortgages)?

I spend about £2000 a month on my credit card for food, fuel, etc. I pay by direct debit 18 days after the bill lands on the mat so by that time, I've probably got £3000 on my card. But I pay it off in full every month just like many other people do. However according to the stats I've got £3000 in debt when the truth is that I've got no debt at all that I couldn't repay on demand. Is it just me or is there something wrong with the stats?

feeta

amcluesent wrote: »

I reckon 9% GDP contraction in 2009-10. Definitely going to be a depression.

Do you really think it will be that much? :eek: