Repos up a staggering 92% iYear on Year

mbga9pgf

http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Business/Repossession-Of-Homes-Soar-According-To-The-Financial-Services-Authority-said/Article/200901415208432?lpos=Business_Top_Stories_Header_2&lid=ARTICLE_15208432_Repossession_Of_Homes_Soar_According_To_The_Financial_Services_Authority_said

Not good news.

Prices are about to collapse.

Really2

mbga9pgf wrote: »

http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Business/Repossession-Of-Homes-Soar-According-To-The-Financial-Services-Authority-said/Article/200901415208432?lpos=Business_Top_Stories_Header_2&lid=ARTICLE_15208432_Repossession_Of_Homes_Soar_According_To_The_Financial_Services_Authority_said

Not good news.

Prices are about to collapse.

I agree bad news if you need to move (and the poor people who have lost their homes). But as I have always said the more repos that come on the market the more people who do not have to move will not put their houses on the market.
I think 50% less houses came on the market this December compared to last December.

Again Repos will be the drivng force for prices in 2009. But numbers of houses on the market will reduce as those who do not need to sell withdraw from the market.

But with cheaper propertys on the market it may get things moving again but I would say even at current compleation figures they can easily be absorbed at the moment.

The time for a masive drop would be when repos are higher than sales.

carolt

To be expected.

And worse to come, I'm sure.

Cannon_Fodder

Its the quarterly figure, compared to a year earlier, not "in three months".

Still not good, don't get me wrong.

But to avoid getting sidetracked...

Really2

mbga9pgf wrote: »

http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Business/Repossession-Of-Homes-Soar-According-To-The-Financial-Services-Authority-said/Article/200901415208432?lpos=Business_Top_Stories_Header_2&lid=ARTICLE_15208432_Repossession_Of_Homes_Soar_According_To_The_Financial_Services_Authority_said

Not good news.

Prices are about to collapse.

PS title is a bit misleading they are up 92% on the same period of last year not 92% in three months.;)

CF beats me to it.

mbga9pgf

Really, couple of points.

Most of the completion figures are still as a result of remortgage as opposed to home purchase. Actual transactions are lower than they seem.

http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/media/press/1912

Number of
house purchase
loans Value of
house purchase
loans, £mNumber of
remortgages Value of
remortgages
£mNovember 2008

33,000

4,500

52,000

7,000

Change from October-17%-18%-25%-25%Change from November 2007-59%-63%-36%-30%

These repo stats dont take account of recent events and are no-where near the peak they will reach.

People cant wait forever. Worker mobility etc, especially as jobs are becoming more sparse, people will have to move to find new work. In the short term I agree. but once it dawns on everyone that in fact prices arent going to simply bounce back many will panic and flood the market. Wait and see.

chucky

Cannon_Fodder wrote: »

Its the quarterly figure, compared to a year earlier, not "in three months".

Still not good, don't get me wrong.

But to avoid getting sidetracked...

yep that's right - the thread should be renamed.

it's a sad story for those who will and have lost their homes.

Really2

mbga9pgf wrote: »

. In the short term I agree. but once it dawns on everyone that in fact prices arent going to simply bounce back many will panic and flood the market. Wait and see.

Have you sold your car or do you still need it?

Sorry if people think owners are just going to dump houses becuase prices are falling they are in for a shock.(mainly because they still need somwhere to live)
What do you think the last 18 months were?(could not be people selling because prices were falling = the biggest amoutn of propertys on sale for years)
That stage as gone mate, you are kidding yourself if you think sellers will now flood the market to compete with repos.

mbga9pgf

Wait and see!

If you have an expensive X5 on costly finance, do you stick with it when money is tight or do you downsize?

Have a look in your local 4X4 dealership and see what I mean.

Exactly the same concept.

besonders1

I disagree about sellers withdrawing from the market as I have seen loads of new properties appear over the past month, even though they are still priced at peak levels. I wonder whether these might be worried sellers who cant afford the mortgage hoping to be saved by a desperate buyer while they can. If you wanted a higher price for your home then it would make sense to sell sooner rather than later before the prices go right down even further and be in more negative equity with no guarantee that the prices will ever recover again.

I don't it will make much difference if sellers withdraw from the market or not if they don't need to sell as they are not selling at the high prices now anyway. If this was the case then there would be "zero" homes for sale on rightmove and estate agents would be a thing of the past, as people would only buy one house in their lifetime and die in it.

Really2

mbga9pgf wrote: »

Really, couple of points.
.

sorry but 33,000 house purchases in one month is still higher than 13,000 in three months.

It averages just over 4000 a month so If all those were sold it would still account for only 12% of the market.
I still stck by the statement that even at current levels they can easily swallowed up.