Repos up a staggering 92% iYear on Year

chucky

!!!!!!? wrote: »

It doesn't matter whether it's a good sellers market out there or not - as long as you are in equity the same reasons to move exist as before and you are able to do so (probably at less cost to yourself) - and it's people who sell and move somewhere else that drive the market.

You seem to be fixated on the idea that making a fat profit on the sale of your house is the be all and end all for sellers and is what drives the market. The people driving the core of the housing market do not move house because they are enthralled at the amount of zeroes on the cheque when they sell their house.

you've got to admit that this is a massive driver and probably the key factor in people's appetite to sell their property.

in the past boom this was the main driver and they used this equity to upgrade or even MEW.

Cannon_Fodder

Really2 wrote: »

Sorry I fail to see how you can not see it as somone who did not consider it in the past.

Also in 2007 and 2008 there were record property numbers on the market as people looked to STR. Most could not sell or have still left them on the market.
So you think the people who could not sell then will think "hey its droped another 20-30% lets go for it.?"

I really don't know why you are trying to convince yourselves that their will be a glut of people selling this year that are not foreced.
Time will tell but full grovelling will be expected in 12 months as I am proved right.
A marked decine in the number of houses coming to market is not a sign of more coming on.
Unless a 2.5% drop in prices is a sure sign of prices going up next month.

I think you are getting in a muddle over who said what and what point you are tryin to make to who, as usual, which is why I often stop reading your stuff.

I have NEVER said a glut will happen.

In the past, I was FTB. At 25, I cared not one IOTA for house prices. I bought it and continued having my life. "as someone who did not consider it" - exactly - I DID NOT CONSIDER selling, STRing, buying, anything. I'd just bought it and was getting on with my life....just like the majority of the population will in due course. Maybe not in January as a recession bites, but spring could be be a turning point, not a glut, but an upturn in numbers, not prices.

6 million apparently read this website, but you can bet 5.9 million have not seen this Forum, so 59 million or so, are equally uninformed, as all the vested interests wish us to be, so people just do what suits their life, in their situation, at any given time.

Why would I buy in 1990 and in 1991 panic sell? If that's what someone else has suggested, in relation 2007/8, that's mad. BUT, if someone bought in 2004/5 and is weighing up downsizing that is less cut and dried.


That link you used, http://www.ft.com/cms/s/1961757c-e5b5-11dd-afe4-0000779fd2ac,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F0%2F1961757c-e5b5-11dd-afe4-0000779fd2ac.html&_i_referer doesn't work properly, but is actually headed;

"Property website sees activity surge in UK"

"By Daniel Thomas, Property Correspondent
Published: January 19 2009 01:52 | Last updated: January 19 2009 01:52

The new year has seen a surge in “window shoppers” for new homes, with the number of inquiries from those seeking to look at properties more than doubling even as actual sales stay near record lows.
Rightmove, the online home sales portal, has reported a surge in activity, with inquiries rising to 429,560 in four weeks to January 10 from 199,762 in the same period last year"


- those new inquiries could be people checking out possibilites before putting their own house on the market - check the neighbour's place out, so you know how to price your own, is a classic technique.


is it the same article as ?http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/property_and_mortgages/article5542426.ece

"Rightmove, the property website, said that a sharp fall in the number of homes coming on to the market and an increase in interest from buyers meant that an end to house price falls was in sight and could happen as early as the end of this year."


So, you are basing your argument on Rightmoves vested interest in generating activity that will help their share price;

http://markets.ft.com/tearsheets/performance.asp?s=uk:RMV


You have to remember, whether a buyers or sellers market, the housing market is DIFFERENT to shares/commodoties...

The majority, in the middle of a housing chain, are BOTH buyer and seller. What they gain in one market, they lose in the other, so it becomes a toss up, whether the right house they want is available and whether they can afford it.

I am NOT saying there will be a glut. But i can understand how there may be a spring bounce. Not saying its sensible or advisable to all, but like the various indices, being averages, there will be relative bargains in different parts of the country. And the next property up the ladder, if it comes on the market, may be too good to ignore.

I think part of the problem is that you think everyone analyses the statistics like you do, and will act accordingly. The reality is that most people don't even know various statisics exists, let alone understand enough about it to act upon them with any confidence.

So, they will go about their lives as per usual; often taking their lead from headlines, i.e. recession = "panic saving/not spending", despite relatively small % directly affected so far.

Really2

Cannon_Fodder wrote: »

I think you are getting in a muddle over who said what and what point you are tryin to make to who, as usual, which is why I often stop reading your stuff.

I have NEVER said a glut will happen.


So, they will go about their lives as per usual; often taking their lead from headlines, i.e. recession = "panic saving/not spending", despite relatively small % directly affected so far.

Please don't anounce to everyone you are going to stick me on ignore again:rolleyes:
No muddle cannon fodder you said numbers would increase by that I take it on 08 which saw record numbers of houses coming on the market.

Who should I belive you guys report rightmove have record numbers of houses not selling and prices dropping but then say don't trust them?

The last bit not spending? From what I remember from buying a larger house you throw nearly £10K down the toilet and pay a bigger mortgage.
Does not quiet fit in with the idea spend less ad save more in a recession(which is true)

whathavewedone

Look the reality of it is that if people put their house on the market now at the market value now no one will buy it because they are worried that the house will fall further. Rightly so.

This means that the seller has to reduce their price way below the current market price to achieve a sale. Possibly low enough to reflect the most pessimistic predictions of the HPC.

Look at it from a seller's point of view. Unless they bought in the mid 1990s they won't be able to take such a hit without losing so much money that they won't have an adequate deposit to put down anywhere else never mind a bigger property once you take into account stamp duty, agents' fees and other moving costs.

Add to that the fact that reducing your price to well below the current market value in order to achieve a sale means you are taking a risk that prices may not actually fall to those levels.

So most people would have little equity to put down on a property at a time when banks require 25% deposits and are only lending 3 x salary.

If we hadn't moved from our 3 bed semi in 2007 we would have been cramped for space and I wouldn't have been chuffed to be stuck there for up to 10 years or maybe longer but I wouldn't be trying to sell it now because there's no way we'd have got the 4 bed we are in now with the amount we'd have had to knock off the price which would have wiped out anything for a deposit once stamp duty etc was taken into account.

Not only that but while percentagewise you take a bigger hit the more expensive your property is, having looked at Mouseprice it seems as though it's the 3 beds which are taking more of a hit when it comes to actual recent sold prices than 4 beds. I guess this is down to there being more of them around - in a falling market people think hell why should I settle for a 3 bed? If I can get a 15% off a 4 bed now I'd rather buy that.

So all in all it's a rubbish time to trade up.

whathavewedone

In fact while we did intend to stay here until the kids left home I wouldn't mind trading up to a bigger detached house in the next road up. If I thought I could sell my house for the most recent valuation yet buy a bigger house for 30% off peak then I might be tempted to do it. But that would only happen in dreamland unfortunately.

Cannon_Fodder

Really2 wrote: »

Please don't anounce to everyone you are going to stick me on ignore again:rolleyes:
No muddle cannon fodder you said numbers would increase by that I take it on 08 which saw record numbers of houses coming on the market.

Who should I belive you guys report rightmove have record numbers of houses not selling and prices dropping but then say don't trust them?

The last bit not spending? From what I remember from buying a larger house you throw nearly £10K down the toilet and pay a bigger mortgage.
Does not quiet fit in with the idea spend less ad save more in a recession(which is true)

"you said numbers would increase" - where? What numbers?

"by that I take it on 08 which saw record numbers of houses coming on the market" - your assumption. Try following the context.

"The last bit" - was totally unrelated to houses, it was an example of how the population follow headlines, being otherwise poorly educated/informed.


Earlier I said;

"People didn't stop buying/selling, but it wasn't enough to stop the crash in the 90s...I don't expect it will this time either."

WTF?_2

Really2 wrote: »

No you are, I said nothing of profit (why do you want to buy at the bottom again?:rolleyes: ),
Come to think of it saying wait to sell at the bottom is hardly a "FAT PROFIT" line is it.:mad:
It is virtualy impossible to sell and difficult to get a mortgage at the moment why the hell is it a good time to sell.
You are such a TROLL.

I'm merely explaining to you that the core of the housing market is driven by a desire/need to live somewhere and not to make profit and peoples circumstances will continue to change, requiring selling/buying of houses. Therefore the market will not grind to a halt just because average prices have dropped and continue to drop.

Sorry if that's not what you wanted to hear.

Transaction volumes are likely to be lower simply because a sizeable segment of the market over recent years was comprised of credit-fuelled speculators but the buying and selling of houses will continue as it did before property-mania hit.

People who want to buy a house and who are in a good financial position will be able to get one at a decent price because people will still be there to sell to them. Even with a return to 2003 prices that leaves a hell of a lot of people out there with equity.

Really2

[quote=Cannon Fodder;17960415

"People didn't stop buying/selling, but it wasn't enough to stop the crash in the 90s...I don't expect it will this time either." [/quote]

And neither is it meant to but it is an extreamly poor time to sell worse than last year and worse than after the recession.

The other evidence is eveyone on this thread saying it is a poor time to sell and are not going to sell = have a house.

All the ones saying more people will sell = looking to buy

So homeowners say people will not sell unless forced.
Prospective purchasers say they should sell its as good as any other timel

Going on it will be owners making that decision I am fairly confident I will be a right that people will not sell unless forced as they will not want to compeat with repos.

Really2

!!!!!!? wrote: »

I'm merely explaining to you that the core of the housing market is driven by a desire/need to live somewhere and not to make profit and peoples circumstances will continue to change, requiring selling/buying of houses. Therefore the market will not grind to a halt just because average prices have dropped and continue to drop.

.

God:mad:

It as nothing to do with prices it is the market conditions.

The market conditions are very bad to sell (Repos, Recession ,lack of mortgages, prices falling so buyers avoidind buying) are you really that far up your own @ss you cannot see that.

Sorry the market is not driven by just need I would say it is a fairly even split between need and want.
Last year was want & Need
This year will be Need and Repos.

whathavewedone

Totally with you Really 2. Where is the head banging icon?