Very worrying stop press news re Anglo Irish

Trollfever

Is there anyone who can show evidence of having predicted Iceland going bankrupt before everything blew up in their face ?

<H1>Iceland ramps interest rates to prop up krona as alarm bells continue

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Last Updated: 12:49AM BST 31 Mar 2006

Iceland's central bank slammed on the brakes yesterday, raising interest rates three quarters of a point to 11.5pc to curb inflation and restore faith in the battered krona.
The shock move marks an end to the bank's failed strategy of "baby steps", which has led to a housing bubble, fast-rising prices and wild over-leveraging by banks, some of it used to launch Viking raids on Britain's high street.

</H1>
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/2935659/Iceland-ramps-interest-rates-to-prop-up-krona-as-alarm-bells-continue.html


P.S. The Icelandic PR Teams were posting on this Board right up to the end.

GeorgeHowell

JP45 wrote: »

So I would maintain that there is still a possibility that the UK government would compensate UK savers in the unlikely event that i. The Irish government goes bankrupt and fails to honour its guarantee to UK savers, and ii. The EU/ECB fails to step in to bail out the Irish state. But you are never going to get the UK government to say so explicitly for perfectly obvious reasons.

There is always a possibility. But is it worth taking the risk for a few decimal points of interest ? With Icesave etc British savers could legitimately claim they were caught unawares, and public opinion was probably broadly supportive of the UK government bail-out. But if it happens again after all the warnings then I would expect that public opinion would in fact prevent the use of taxpayers money for another similar bail-out.

gozomark

am I worried about having savings in Ireland - yes, a little - I'm also worried about having savings in the UK to be honest. A number of posters here seem to believe Ireland is risky, but that the UK is risk free. Neither country could cope with a wholesale collapse of their banking sysyems.

In both cases there is a very small chance of it all going horribly wrong. However, people closing accounts with Anglo Irish earning 7% and putting in a UK bank earning 3.5% - thats somewhat more than a few decimal points.

Ireland on its own is riskier than the UK. Ireland in the Euro, and with ECB in the background is about equal to the UK on its own in my opinion

Berty

there is a chance the world will end tomorrow - better commit suicide now just in case

Blow suicide I'm off to find Miss World, Ksenia Sukhinova

Have fun Because I will be:rotfl:

GeorgeHowell

If the UK banking system looks like collapsing the UK government will look after UK savers and investors first and foremost. If the Irish banking system looks like collapsing the Irish government will look after Irish savers. Look what happened in Iceland. I would not want to risk being on the wrong side of the fence as it were. If other people do then be it upon their own head.

gozomark

but neither country could look after even just its own savers. If the UK banking system collapsed, all savers in the UK system are F***ed, no matter what nationality, unless IMF or other countries help out. Same for Ireland, except they also have the ECB to potentially help out.


Its not a matter of "oo, looks like our banking system is about to collapse, lets make sure all our peoples savings are OK" - it won't work - there will be nothing to make the savings OK with

captainkevos

JP45 wrote: »

I'm not at all surprised at the response you got from the UK FSCS. I wouldn't expect them to say anything else. But the fact remains that the government has already stepped in to bail out savers when they were not required to do so under terms of the FSCS. And had you asked the FSCS a few months ago whether they or the UK government would be willing to bail out UK savers beyond the cover provided by the FSCS scheme they would have said the same thing back then ie NO.

So I would maintain that there is still a possibility that the UK government would compensate UK savers in the unlikely event that i. The Irish government goes bankrupt and fails to honour its guarantee to UK savers, and ii. The EU/ECB fails to step in to bail out the Irish state. But you are never going to get the UK government to say so explicitly for perfectly obvious reasons.

As one of the (200-300,000 ex-Icesave savers) who also has a FTB (maturing next month) with Anglo-Irish, I thought it may be worth asking if anyone actually knows how many UK (retail) savers have money deposited with them? It seems relevant to the hypothetical question of how many of us will be demonstrating outside No11 Downing Street if "the worst" happened and Ireland shafted us and HMG refused to help.

If no-one knows this, I'll call them and ask them myself and then post an update.

Apologies in advance to anyone who thinks that this is a "naive question"

bendipa

GeorgeHowell wrote: »

Is there anyone who can show evidence of having predicted Iceland going bankrupt before everything blew up in their face ? Ireland is bigger it's true but not that much bigger in the scheme of things. It was over-optimism, such as anticipating house prices going on rising for ever, that in large part caused the credit crunch. If savers in Irish banks, or anywhere else abroad, get turned over without any bail-out this time -- and they've been warned enough -- then they'll get no sympathy from me, nor I would hope from the vast majority of the UK population.

I wonder if people here ever bother to read this thread. Brian Lenihan, the Irish Finance Minister has publicly pledged that safeguarding all bank depositors' funds is paramount. Now that ANG is nationalised all savers money is guaranteed by the Irish State in full. It doesn't matter if you are a British depositor. Savers in ANG are safer now than they were before. So unless you really believe that Ireland will be the first modern country in recent history allowed to go bankrupt, I wouldn't worry too much.

Iceland has been bailed out by the IMF and Scandinavian countries. So its government has been prevented from defaulting on its debts. Ireland is a full member state of the EU (unlike the UK). If the EU decide they will not assist Ireland in a bail-out (should it come to it) then it would spell the end of the EU, as its main purpose (economic union) would have been completely compromised. Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy economies are also in a precarious situation. Would the EU also turn its back on them if push came to shove?

stevetodd

gozomark wrote: »

am I worried about having savings in Ireland - yes, a little - I'm also worried about having savings in the UK to be honest. A number of posters here seem to believe Ireland is risky, but that the UK is risk free. Neither country could cope with a wholesale collapse of their banking sysyems.

In both cases there is a very small chance of it all going horribly wrong. However, people closing accounts with Anglo Irish earning 7% and putting in a UK bank earning 3.5% - thats somewhat more than a few decimal points.

Ireland on its own is riskier than the UK. Ireland in the Euro, and with ECB in the background is about equal to the UK on its own in my opinion

That more or less sums up my view too, I am earning 7% in a 2 year bond with about 21 months to run, 21 months at 7% instead of 3.5% is worth the SMALL risk. I think people are panicking though and rationality goes out of the window.

soulsaver

debbie_cliff wrote: »

Before withdrawing my money from Anglo Irish I checked with the UK FSCS and they informed me that the UK government would not get involved at all if Ireland defaulted and that the UK govt insisted that Anglo Irish and other Irish Banks contact all investors to let them know they will not be protected by FSCS. Investors beware NO UK BAILOUT

The FSCS is NOT the government, and as such '...couldn't possibly second guess what the HMG may or may not do...' - which is how they responded to me when I asked the right question.
I suspect they have told you that the FSCS won't cover your savings with Anglo in any circumstances. But isn't that what the letter from Anglo said...