i feel so selfish but this credit crunch is helping me a lot

jyonda

lynzpower wrote: »

Do we think, for example, in 6 months time it will be impossible to buy trainers under 20 quid or do you think that the prices will get cheaper stll?

I don't know if it will be 6 months, a year or next month even but manufacturing is in decline due to oversupply and at some point it will swing back the other way. The retailers/ manufacturers that are left will have more of a monopoly and will sell things at premium prices to people who either can afford to pay high prices or who can't avoid spending as it is an essential item. If you can afford to because you have a job which is always needed then I would fill your boots whilst the shops are going bust and overstocked. Things will get more expensive once supply starts drying up.

amcluesent

Quite soon (end 2009) the issue will become getting your pay increases to keep pace with inflation.

Right now, people in 'secure' jobs are generally talking public sector work. I can tell you that when inflation lets rip then 'wage restraints' will be used to set an example of suppressing salary increases and your standard of living will fall very fast.

The Govt. need to do this as their policy now is to use inflation to reduce the debt burden of PFI schemes and the like. Public sector people will be taking big pay cuts in real terms.

The smart move in mid-2009 will be to take on really big debts by buying a fantastic house from a distressed seller and work in private-sector area where demand is inelastic with price.

naijapower

what goes down will go up. while we enjoy the cut lets be wary of the future rise. when the rates begin to rise, we may still be unable to remortgage due to deficit in equity hence we would be stuck...
we need to put the current savings aside into a pot to cater for any future hiccups

lynzpower

jyonda wrote: »

I don't know if it will be 6 months, a year or next month even but manufacturing is in decline due to oversupply and at some point it will swing back the other way. The retailers/ manufacturers that are left will have more of a monopoly and will sell things at premium prices to people who either can afford to pay high prices or who can't avoid spending as it is an essential item. If you can afford to because you have a job which is always needed then I would fill your boots whilst the shops are going bust and overstocked. Things will get more expensive once supply starts drying up.

thats what I thought! Surely the premium stuff ( eg charles worthington will make less and it wont end up in pound shops to remain premium IYSWIM )

Its hard to do though buying stuff you dont need. hard to justify.

We had 2 holidays in December, and Id love to go away again now! Do you think holidays ( not packages, we usually book hotels & flights seperately) will get more expensive. some of the flight prices im seeing at the moment are ridiculous, and I got an email from alpharooms last night saying they were selling hotels in turkey for 58p a night!!!! I know I shouldnt just book another holiday now- it just feels like its excessive!! but im feaful prices will get so high we wouldnt go later in the year...

sabretoothtigger

Yea thats good advice, not only pay off the mortgage but set aside 12 months worth of payments because they dont have any obligation to let you off a payment just because you overpaid previously afaik

Snooze

patchy987 wrote: »

hi guys

please dont slate me for my opinion

the credit crunch has so far only been positive for me. our mortgage has dropped by over £200 a month, petrol is 40p a litre cheaper than 6 months ago. food seems to be getting cheaper. sales are everywhere while retailers try to tempt people in.

ok on the other hand we have lost a lot on our house price but as we dont plan to move its not a big issue right now.

is anyone else finding theirselves better off at the moment , crazy as it may sound

Enjoy it while it lasts. I tell you, this is the calm before the storm, and this will be no storm that you've ever seen before! Once Clown has suckered the masses into thinking "oh this credit crunch is actually not too bad" like your good self above, that will be when taxation taps will all be turned on at full chat and you'll suddenly see yourself only getting 5% of your gross wage into your bank account while the other 95% goes to Clown to pay back the £100,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.. (repeat to fade) that he owes.

(Okay you're not gonna see 95% income tax, but you watch all the new stealth taxes suddenly appear over the coming years and also watch your council tax, fuel tax, road tax all go through the roof. By the time you add it all up you're gonna be gonna be left with literally pennies out of your wages).

Rob

patchy987

agent_orange wrote: »

Patchy, My remark was not aimed towards you, but towards the doomsters and gloomsters, I'm pleased that your personal situation has improved - good luck to you. The post was just suggesting there seem to be some posters who delight in posting 'bad news'.

Singlesue, many thanks for your intervention, you were bang on the money.

sorry for taking your comment the wrong way

patchy987

Snooze wrote: »

Enjoy it while it lasts. I tell you, this is the calm before the storm, and this will be no storm that you've ever seen before! Once Clown has suckered the masses into thinking "oh this credit crunch is actually not too bad" like your good self above, that will be when taxation taps will all be turned on at full chat and you'll suddenly see yourself only getting 5% of your gross wage into your bank account while the other 95% goes to Clown to pay back the £100,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.. (repeat to fade) that he owes.

(Okay you're not gonna see 95% income tax, but you watch all the new stealth taxes suddenly appear over the coming years and also watch your council tax, fuel tax, road tax all go through the roof. By the time you add it all up you're gonna be gonna be left with literally pennies out of your wages).

Rob

im not stupid, i know things will go back up but at least i will not have mortgage arrears to worry about, thats the point i was making that i am enjoying it while it lasts and using the situation to pay some debts off

WTF?_2

More on food prices, from The Times:

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/columnists/article5511830.ece

Enjoy low food prices, they are not here to stay
..One for politicians to worry about is rice. The grain that keeps Asia moving has halved in price since it peaked in April last year at $1,080 a tonne, thanks to very good harvests in India and Thailand. That’s a relief for the Philippines, which suffered a rice shortage last year, and several African states, where riots erupted because of the high cost of rice.

But it’s only a temporary respite, according to the International Rice Resarch Institute (IRRI), which is worried about planting and about costs and about credit. Rice farmers in Asia planted aggressively last spring, when their paddies seemed to be lined with gold. The cost of fertilisers had gone through the roof, thanks to the soaring oil price, but that didn’t matter with rice selling for nearly $1,000 a tonne. Unfortunately, by October, the price of rice had fallen to $575 a tonne and the anticipated bumper profit vanished.

What does a farmer with burnt fingers do? He keeps them in his pocket. According to the IRRI, farmers are investing less and the credit crunch is working its sinuous black magic into the world of the peasant farmer. The Philippines has just lowered its estimated of 2009 rice production because of credit problems. Declining rice prices, expensive fertiliser and expensive credit point to one thing, the IRRI says – “another rise in rice prices in the coming months”.

This scenario of the financial crash providing the seeds for a new boom may be seen in other sectors as well. Figures from the US Department of Agriculture indicate a sharp fall in winter wheat planting because of weak prices and shrinking demand for animal feed. In Kansas, farmers seeded nine million acres, the smallest planting for half a century.

Farmers are responding to market signals, a wheat price that halved between February and December and expensive fertilisers. The question is where these very sharp market swings leave us in terms of food security. It doesn’t look good.

According to Barclays Capital, global wheat production will rise to a healthy 684 million tonnes in 2008-09, compared with a lean 596 million tonnes in drought-stricken 2006-07. Between 2004-05 and 2007-08, global wheat stocks had fallen from 151 million tonnes to 119 million tonnes and total stocks are now estimated to rise to 147 million tonnes, thanks to recent good harvests. But the world is consuming a lot more wheat and while last year’s very shrunken stocks represented ten weeks’ consumption, we are only a little better at 11.7 weeks. That is still less comfortable than in 2005 and, according to Barclays Capital, stocks are a lot tighter than in the lengthy agricultural commodity slump of the 1980s and 1990s.

In short - longer term pressure is upward. Given that we haven't seen that much relief in food prices after massive rises last year (even continued rises in some cases), that is pretty worrying.

Ed_Zep

Because I'm on a tracker mortgage, I'm now only paying £274 p.m. which is great but my glee is somewhat tempered by the way this country has gone to the dogs because of a government that doesn't seem able to come up with a good idea.

I'm just glad to have a safe job (at the moment).

To the original poster, don't feel selfish, just enjoy the good luck and spare a thought for those not so fortunate.