Should I sell my shares now or later

Frugalfred_3

I hold 1014 shares in AVIVA. I understand that Norwich Union will become Aviva in June 2009. I need to cah in my shares by end July. Is the merger/renaming likely to increase or decrease my share value.

Blah99

Frugalfred wrote: »

I hold 1014 shares in AVIVA. I understand that Norwich Union will become Aviva in June 2009. I need to cah in my shares by end July. Is the merger/renaming likely to increase or decrease my share value.

Neither. Norwich Union and Aviva are already the same company. The rename is happening to bring the UK operation into line with the global brand. A merger is absolutely not the same thing as a rebranding.

N9eav

Historically it appears to have lost half it's value last year but is currently rising. A lot depends on what sort of profits they have or will make this year. I am sure some expert will chip in his 2p's worth shortly...

Bazn

the name change makes absolutely no difference. the two are already the same. as for the shares, if i could predict the price for july, then i would be a very rich man...

Dooooooooooooooonut

As others say the rebranding is pretty much irrelevant, especially if it's happening in June and you have to sell by July (the rebranding will already be priced into the shares... any effects of the rebranding will be manifesting themselves well after July [assuming no bizarre black swans, probably daily mail related if they're to do with renaming I think])

So...

Toss a coin I suppose

I have no view on Aviva but would suggest that most financials are most likely to move reasonably sideways until July (with more risk to the downside)

So from that perspective I would cash in.

That is a real stab in the dark though, and it certainly isn't based on the merits of Aviva - or even this part of the sector - at all. How about setting a stop loss with your broker?

Dooooooooooooooonut

Bazn wrote: »

if i could predict the price for july, then i would be a very rich man...

only if you could predict the path of the price until July

mikey72

Hisorically they rise to about March, then fall again. But this year, who knows?