House prices - what year will they go back too? (2000, 2001 etc)

Cannon_Fodder

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

You make a lot of sense in this post, yet we constantly see references to here to the UK average as reasons why not to buy.

"Don't buy yet, house prices to fall a further 20% experts say". In reality it may not happen in some areas and conversly, it could be worse in others

The synopsis of this thread is asking what we think the UK average will revery to and I'm simply saying I don't give a diddly squat about the UK average as I understand each area is affected differently as has been prooved during previous corrections

Thanks, I do try to make some sense. I understand your stance.

For others, it can become an issue, i.e. if the UK head office of a Bank says, "right -15% expected in 2009, so our LTVs have got to make allowance for that"...no fine-tuning of region/area.

See other thread where mortgages of 25% LTV are up to 60% of total sold...

...some people might, depending on their circumstances, have to give a diddly.


Would there not be an argument for ignoring the UK average when you are setting your own house price, i.e. keeping to strictly local averages, then, when bargaining for the house you want to buy, bring up the UK awful figures - hope they are with a know-nothing nationwide EA etc ?!?

Are all EAs and other home owners as clued up as us MSEers?

IveSeenTheLight

Cannon_Fodder wrote: »

Would there not be an argument for ignoring the UK average when you are setting your own house price, i.e. keeping to strictly local averages, then, when bargaining for the house you want to buy, bring up the UK awful figures - hope they are with a know-nothing nationwide EA etc ?!?

Are all EAs and other home owners as clued up as us MSEers?

Of course house prices are set to the local market and not the UK average.
House price are market driven although it would depend on how the local market is operating.
As I understand it, most are set by what another similar local property last went for.
If demand is high, the figure is pushed up, thus increasing the precedent on the next sale.
If the demand is low, then the figure can be pushed down, thus decreasing the precedent for the next sale

However it is still set at a local level, not the UK average else each area would have the same percentages

whathavewedone

Can't speak for the country as a whole but in my area prices are still at 2007/early 2008 levels. The few that have sold (and it is only a few!) have gone for very close to the asking price.

Compared to other parts of the country I don't think prices rocketed as much here during the boom. Our house almost doubled in value between 2000 and 2007 but a lot of properties went up by a lot more than that during the same period in other areas. The average 2007 price for a 4 bed period house in good nick was 420k as against 225k in 2000.

This is an area full of families with very good schools. It isn't a posh area but isn't a rough one either. It's always been a relatively affordable place to live even during the boom.

If prices go back to 2002 levels then we would be in NE but would break even if we used our savings, so not the end of the world for us if that ends up being the bottom

We bought in 07 btw before anyone accuses us of mewing!

whathavewedone

I agree ISTL. The last time we had our house valued for mortgage purposes the surveyor went on the prices achieved on comparable houses in our street and also the amount that prices had gone down since we bought in our town as a whole.

It was the same in the boom. We were all told then how much the "average house" had gone up by but the reality was that prices in some areas were going through the roof while others were increasing at a much slower rate.

neverdespairgirl

What area are you in?

carolt

I'm looking at circa 2000/2001 prices - where I live that's roughly 50% off.

Given we've leapt back 3 years over the last year (2004-7), see no reason why we shouldn't do that this year.

What happens after that depends on what happens to inflation and recession.

Interesting if worrying.

FungusFighter

I agree, 2000 prices, but they always overshoot in a crash so perhaps back to 1997/98, then hover around 1999, back up to 2001 and then steady back at 2000. :beer:

whathavewedone

NDG I live in Tonbridge in Kent

ad9898_3

Banks are going to tighten up this year, fear of unemployment, etc.. 2000-2001 seem almost certain now, since that time it's all been bubble.

We have had 20% off since peak in 15 months, back 2004. With most of the economic bad news still in front of us, I suspect a bottoming of the market at about 50% down, when ????, 2010-2011, stagnation then for a good few years, the evidence seems to be overwhelming now, any other view is purely wishful thinking by those who have bought in the last 2 years.

whathavewedone

Not sure why there's a thumbs down at the top of that post. It's actually quite a nice place to live!