House prices - what year will they go back too? (2000, 2001 etc)

IveSeenTheLight

LilacPixie wrote: »

depends on property type and area.

Most sensible post in this thread.
It does not matter what the UK average is showing, people really need to look at their own area and property type.

My own area is currently at Jun 07, August 08 or Jun 08. The area has roughly stagnated (currently down 1.12% YoY)
What does this matter to most other posters on here, diddly squat, same with the UK average.

beecher

mitchaa wrote: »

You are talking here of 1bed flats though are you not? The average home is not a 1 bed flat, more like a 3bed SD.

I agree with you £135k for a 1/2bed flat in Glasgow, even in the centre is ludicrous money. Your £135k flats may drop to £60k (I hope they do) but your average 3bed semi detached dropping to sub £100k?

Glasgow is a big area.

There's absolutely no point in talking about averages though. We can only talk about the areas we know and understand. It is interesting that you hope a 1 bed flat will half in value, but can't imagine a 3 bed semi detatched halving - you're just wanting to convince yourself that your house will remain worth more than other people's.

I'm looking forward to when your denial finally turns to anger.

StevieJ

I reckon around AD 43 and the time of Caratacus Potts

chucky

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Most sensible post in this thread.
It does not matter what the UK average is showing, people really need to look at their own area and property type.

My own area is currently at Jun 07, August 08 or Jun 08. The area has roughly stagnated (currently down 1.12% YoY)
What does this matter to most other posters on here, diddly squat, same with the UK average.

tried to make this same point to our friend yesterday ISTL.

it's just not logical to think that every property in the UK will drop by 15% or 30%.
some areas will some won't, some property will some won't.

seriously, it's not that difficult of a concept to grasp.

StevieJ

beecher wrote: »

There's absolutely no point in talking about averages though. We can only talk about the areas we know and understand. It is interesting that you hope a 1 bed flat will half in value, but can't imagine a 3 bed semi detatched halving - you're just wanting to convince yourself that your house will remain worth more than other people's.

I'm looking forward to when your denial finally turns to anger.

Way too many 1 bedroom flats have been built, you know it could just be down to supply and demand as usual

abaxas

chucky wrote: »

tried to make this same point to our friend yesterday ISTL.

it's just not logical to think that every property in the UK will drop by 15% or 30%.
some areas will some won't, some property will some won't.

seriously, it's not that difficult of a cocept to grasp.

Cant find my post on this, but I'll give you a synopsis.

Flight to 'value'. Most families (or living together unit style thingy) can live in a 3 bed semi. Not all can live in a 1/2 bed flat, lots of families would rattle around in a 4 bed. Detatched costs more to run hence is not 'value'.

Hence largest drops at the top/bottom, less in the middle. Ie if you own a 'slave box' or a large detached, watch out!

Also dont discount area,best/worst areas will be hit hard. Ones in the middle not so. Also remembering that areas change, what was once posh might not always be. What was a dump might come up in the world.

Cannon_Fodder

I agree, for an individual purchase, averages are not much use.

But we use averages in so many other ways - i.e. inflation is a (contrived) average, however flawed it may be, its what we have got to measure the economy.

BoE use it, not a pensioner's inflation or a gadget-freaks inflation, so its relevant because Interest Rates (should) reflect it.

Likewise, averages of House Prices can be relevant - i.e. mortgage companies are not going to consider the "special-ness" of 1 particular village when deciding what LTV they require...its the average drops that interest them, as they don't have the skills or time to consider the minutiae.

So discussing where we seem to be heading is bound to include averages, as otherwise we would need a thread per postcode or something equally silly...

beecher

StevieJ wrote: »

Way too many 1 bedroom flats have been built, you know it could just be down to supply and demand as usual

I'm in a 1 bed traditional tenement which is bigger than most 2 bed semis. They're always going to be popular but they aren't worth what they've been going for. I'm just not living in denial about its value as it doesn't make the slightest difference to me.

chucky

abaxas wrote: »

Cant find my post on this, but I'll give you a synopsis.

Flight to 'value'. Most families (or living together unit style thingy) can live in a 3 bed semi. Not all can live in a 1/2 bed flat, lots of families would rattle around in a 4 bed. Detatched costs more to run hence is not 'value'.

Hence largest drops at the top/bottom, less in the middle. Ie if you own a 'slave box' or a large detached, watch out!

Also dont discount area,best/worst areas will be hit hard. Ones in the middle not so. Also remembering that areas change, what was once posh might not always be. What was a dump might come up in the world.

very much agree - and would just like to add a bit more to what you have said.

there are sellers that need to sell and sellers that don't.
this creates two layers - the volume of the layer that needs to sell determines the level of the price drops.

IveSeenTheLight

Cannon_Fodder wrote: »

I agree, for an individual purchase, averages are not much use.

But we use averages in so many other ways - i.e. inflation is a (contrived) average, however flawed it may be, its what we have got to measure the economy.

BoE use it, not a pensioner's inflation or a gadget-freaks inflation, so its relevant because Interest Rates (should) reflect it.

Likewise, averages of House Prices can be relevant - i.e. mortgage companies are not going to consider the "special-ness" of 1 particular village when deciding what LTV they require...its the average drops that interest them, as they don't have the skills or time to consider the minutiae.

So discussing where we seem to be heading is bound to include averages, as otherwise we would need a thread per postcode or something equally silly...

You make a lot of sense in this post, yet we constantly see references to here to the UK average as reasons why not to buy.

"Don't buy yet, house prices to fall a further 20% experts say". In reality it may not happen in some areas and conversly, it could be worse in others

The synopsis of this thread is asking what we think the UK average will revery to and I'm simply saying I don't give a diddly squat about the UK average as I understand each area is affected differently as has been prooved during previous corrections