Gordon Brown: "not me Guv, I wouldn't change a thing"

Cat695

neverdespairgirl wrote: »

The thing party political types miss is that I'm not that interested in what people did when I was a baby, nor in what people might have done (but didn't, because they weren't in government). I'm interested in what Crash Gordon's actually donw, and I don't like it.

My argument all along Labour have been in power long enough now to have stopped this way before it happened....and all they did and are doing is making it bigger.

Rochdale_Pioneers

I think some of you misunderstand. I'm not trying for a second to blame the mess on the Tories - Labour have been in charge for 11 years so any specific Tory policies have long gone.

My point was that a Tory government would also be in this mess as they proposed nothing else. Who aside from Vince Cable warned against this? We heard not a peep from the Tories, so how would things have been different had they been in power?

Ultimately we and the rest of the western world adopted free-market deregulated economics as a philisophy in the 1980s. It came from Reagan was adopted by Thatcher then spread across Europe. It quickly became the only economic model in town and was adpted across the world by parties of the left and right. We all got suckered in - and if you think we have it bad try being Iceland or Eastern Europe, massively borrowing in foreign currency.

Now that system has finally collapsed, with a left wing government here and a right wing government in America. Not sure what some of you are trying to say about party ideology there but never mind. Brown's failing was in being taken in by his own success. And it was success - low interest rates and inflation, steady growth. He believed his own press and like Lawson before him grew beyond arrogance into smugness. And then the bubble burst - but unlike Lawson's economic miracle it didn't collapse under its own weight - this one wasn't home grown. Some of you seem to think it is - so is the global recession also home grown in each individual country at the same time?

How we could have avoided it was capping the housing bubble by regulating what could be built and taxing BTL out of existance, capping city profits, regulating hedge funds with a noose. Do they sound like Tory manifestoes of the recent past? Speeches by Cameron before the autumn?

So I get the frustration with Brown, but we need an alternative policy. haven't heard one from the Tories yet, apart from repeat their mistakes of the past by letting the recession run itself. And that my right wing friends is why the Tory lead has almost gone - punters don't believe Labour single-handedly got us here and don't believe the Tories know how to get us out.

purch

My point was that a Tory government would also be in this mess as they proposed nothing else

It's a point, but it doesn't excuse the failings of the New Labour Government that was in power.

In fact it just clouds the issue.

Just as you can't blame someone else for your own mistakes, accusing those who are not in power for having no alternative policy's cannot excuse thoise who are in power.

nickmason

Rochdale_Pioneers wrote: »

So I get the frustration with Brown, but we need an alternative policy. haven't heard one from the Tories yet, apart from repeat their mistakes of the past by letting the recession run itself. And that my right wing friends is why the Tory lead has almost gone - punters don't believe Labour single-handedly got us here and don't believe the Tories know how to get us out.

Actually this is precisely the point. Neither "side" has the policies; once again it comes down to philosophy. For my part, I'd like empowered individuals and communities, deregulation, local choice, and economic realism. The "Brown" philosophy seems to hinge on statism, interventionism, micro-management, equality of achievement, complexity, keynesian economics.

StevieJ

nickmason wrote: »

Actually this is precisely the point. Neither "side" has the policies; once again it comes down to philosophy. For my part, I'd like empowered individuals and communities, deregulation, local choice, and economic realism. The "Brown" philosophy seems to hinge on statism, interventionism, micro-management, equality of achievement, complexity, keynesian economics.

But these are the very things that people on theses boards say he should have done with the banks e.g. controlling lending, house prices,inerest rates etc.

nickmason

StevieJ wrote: »

But these are the very things that people on theses boards say he should have done with the banks e.g. controlling lending, house prices,inerest rates etc.

Right, you are.

Two things, though:
1) For the context of this board, it's clear that house prices and debt have got out of hand. This can be avoided by increasing interest rates. Fiddling around with inflation indicators, without reconsidering inflation targets, is effectively forcing changes in interest rates. So Brown could have controlled the house price/debt boom better, without any great level of interventionism. All he needed to do was not fiddle (sorry, I mean intervene - too much Nero in that image).
2) You are allowed to rage against the machine.

Edit: There is also the suspicion that GB tried to invent money by inflating houses through low interest rates, then lock that value in through such anti-market devices as HIPs. This is consistent with putting the burden of debt on future generations. And was b****y silly in it's Canute-likeness.

cogito

Rochdale_Pioneers wrote: »

I think some of you misunderstand. I'm not trying for a second to blame the mess on the Tories - Labour have been in charge for 11 years so any specific Tory policies have long gone.

My point was that a Tory government would also be in this mess as they proposed nothing else. Who aside from Vince Cable warned against this? We heard not a peep from the Tories, so how would things have been different had they been in power?

Ultimately we and the rest of the western world adopted free-market deregulated economics as a philisophy in the 1980s. It came from Reagan was adopted by Thatcher then spread across Europe. It quickly became the only economic model in town and was adpted across the world by parties of the left and right. We all got suckered in - and if you think we have it bad try being Iceland or Eastern Europe, massively borrowing in foreign currency.

Now that system has finally collapsed, with a left wing government here and a right wing government in America. Not sure what some of you are trying to say about party ideology there but never mind. Brown's failing was in being taken in by his own success. And it was success - low interest rates and inflation, steady growth. He believed his own press and like Lawson before him grew beyond arrogance into smugness. And then the bubble burst - but unlike Lawson's economic miracle it didn't collapse under its own weight - this one wasn't home grown. Some of you seem to think it is - so is the global recession also home grown in each individual country at the same time?

How we could have avoided it was capping the housing bubble by regulating what could be built and taxing BTL out of existance, capping city profits, regulating hedge funds with a noose. Do they sound like Tory manifestoes of the recent past? Speeches by Cameron before the autumn?

So I get the frustration with Brown, but we need an alternative policy. haven't heard one from the Tories yet, apart from repeat their mistakes of the past by letting the recession run itself. And that my right wing friends is why the Tory lead has almost gone - punters don't believe Labour single-handedly got us here and don't believe the Tories know how to get us out.

According to Blair, it was more good luck than good management. Just what some of us suspected all along.

WTF?_2

cogito wrote: »

According to Blair, it was more good luck than good management. Just what some of us suspected all along.

It was a global boom just like its becoming a global bust.

Brown would prefer to take personal credit for the results of the boom in the UK but blame the bust on events outside his control.

The real test is what shape the country is in as the bust hits and whether or not the govt made good use of the wealth generated during the prosperous times - and in that regard he has failed miserably. The UK is especially badly placed amongst the main players and its entirely down to policies that he pursued as Chancellor and PM.

Rochdale_Pioneers

!!!!!!? wrote: »

It was a global boom just like its becoming a global bust.

Brown would prefer to take personal credit for the results of the boom in the UK but blame the bust on events outside his control.

The real test is what shape the country is in as the bust hits and whether or not the govt made good use of the wealth generated during the prosperous times - and in that regard he has failed miserably. The UK is especially badly placed amongst the main players and its entirely down to policies that he pursued as Chancellor and PM.

Contrast this with the last bust then.

Interest rates - 14% in 1990, 4.5% summer 2008
Inflation - 10% 1990, 5% summer 08
Unemployment - both under 2m
Borrowing - broadly level. Don't have the pre-90s bust figure to hand but post bust it was 51%. Was 44% last summer before the bank bailout started.

Looks like a pretty good record to me. Here's the thing. We experienced growth for 15 years straight, starting with Clarke continued by Brown. Have we ever had a spell of growth that long? Lawson declared his personal economic miracle on 5 years of growth. And would our economy have gone into bust without the rest of the world also going bust? We rode out multiple recessions elsewhere in Europe and further afield during those 15 years. Previously we bobbled in the ripples of other economies and were swept wherever they sent us. Did we do that when the Asian economic bubble burst? or dot com? The recessions seen in Germany?

nickmason

Rochdale_Pioneers wrote: »

Contrast this with the last bust then.

Interest rates - 14% in 1990, 4.5% summer 2008
Inflation - 10% 1990, 5% summer 08

Splitting hairs slightly, but isn't it healthier for interest rates to be above inflation?