House sales set for 10% increase

Squish_21

Thought i'd share...
House prices look set to dive by a further 10% during 2009 but sales levels should then begin to pick up, it has been predicted.
The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) said it expected the average cost of a home to drop by at least 25% from its peak in 2007 to the trough.
It warned that the on-going caution among mortgage lenders and the worsening economic climate looked set to lead to further double digit house price falls during the coming 12 months.
But it added that recent RICS housing market surveys suggested activity levels may have reached the bottom and there could be a 10% increase in sales next year.
The number of enquires received from new buyers recently rose to its highest level since 2006.
However, RICS said the key to turning these enquiries into actual sales would be the availability of mortgages.
Mortgage approvals are currently running at only around 30,000 a month, well down on the 129,000 seen during one month at the height of the lending boom.
The group urged the Government to implement the proposals put forward by former head of Halifax Bank of Scotland Sir James Crosby, namely temporary Government support for the mortgage backed securities market, to try to increase the flow of mortgage lending.
RICS chief economist Simon Rubinsohn said: "Lenders are likely to remain cautious in the near term in the absence of any guarantees on mortgage backed securities.
"This, coupled with an increasingly gloomy economic picture, suggests that house prices will continue to decline in 2009. However, transaction levels do seem to have hit a floor with some signs that opportunistic investors are returning to the market."

nembot

Comparing timescales to the last couple of crashes, we're probably a full year in now with at least 18 months or longer to go on the downward slope. I believe a crash is defined as 1% per month over a year, which we've seen so far - 10% further seems to be a rather optimistic figure to me.

The last HPC continued for a number of years before prices started going up, looking at the numbers it started around 1989 and prices started to rise steadily around 1994/5.

This is just my opinion obviously and I could be wrong, infact I usually am....

Soot2006

Well if prices go down enough, I'll definitely be buying, so there's a sale . I know quite a few people of the same thoughts as I.

Cat695

i guess many people will jump on......but with all the job losses etc I think we'll be lucky to see any increase in anything

Davesnave

This is on the wrong board; we've discussed it on House Prices, The Economy & Recession. Still, it's Christmas and your're entitled to have this here as long as the mods allow, which could be some time!

Personally, I don't think a further 10% fall is optimistic at all and, unlike many pundits, I've put real money on that. People like Soot2006 and myself may be tempted back into the market, but at the same time there will be significant numbers of others leaving via the door marked 'repossession.'

thriftyminx13

I posted on the other thread within House Prices, the economy and the recession about how so many of my friends are looking seriously at buying houses, or have placed bids or have bought property in the last 2 months.

I live in northern ireland and they seem to think that the prices here are for turning. i thought it was just me but having spoken to my brother, he said a number of his friends were looking to buy at the minute.

madness? or canny?

Pitlanepiglet

IIRC RIC's were at the start of this year saying that there would only be a small reduction in house prices so I'm not sure how reliable this is as a measure.

robin_banks

It's an absolute pile of pish that's how accurate this report is.

hethmar

I think there may be more buyers next year but no way will prices increase again for many years

themanbearpig

More enquiries; maybe. But more sales? Not a chance.
Credit is getting harder and harder to secure only to get worse in 2009. Only the truely stupid will be rushing to buy a depriciating asset on the brink of a very uncertain financial meltdown.
All the people that are saying "ill buy 2 if they get to 50% less than 2007" are dreamers. Unless you have cash in the bank, you're not going to be able to. Once interest rates hit double figures in a few years, those that can get credit wont!
Large HPC like what we are seeing do not benefit the masses for many many years, only the rich will.

Blad.vart

Buy when there is blood on the street. Difficult to call the bottom but buying into a falling market gives the advantage to the buyer to get a good deal on a property with location factor.

I am buying in the new year.

Fortune favours the brave.