Does the FTSE reflect the house market

scousethife

cubtryies !!!!ed

neverdespairgirl

Yer what?

ad9898_3

Generali wrote: »

Apparently peak phosphate is the panic du jour for the modern tin hat wearing cognoscenti. It's going to 'run out' in about 25 years at which point we all starve.

Having liked your knowledgeble posts on here General, I'm surprised at your 'head in the sand' stance on the peak oil subject. There is no viable alternative on the horizon and we are utterly dependant on this fuel.

While I admit we aren't going to run out tomorrow, the down side of ' Hubberts Curve' will be a lot more distressing than the upside of it.

This chart shows world oil production up until 2004 with ASPO's predictions of what might occur afterwards. After a short plateau, it is expected to drop away (although it won't be as smooth as shown, of course). The comparisons with the Hubbert Curve are clear until the 1970s when the OPEC-induced oil crisis messed up the slope.

[SIZE=-1]Source: ASPO[/SIZE]

Generali

ad9898 wrote: »

Having liked your knowledgeble posts on here General, I'm surprised at your 'head in the sand' stance on the peak oil subject. There is no viable alternative on the horizon and we are utterly dependant on this fuel.

While I admit we aren't going to run out tomorrow, the down side of ' Hubberts Curve' will be a lot more distressing than the upside of it.

This chart shows world oil production up until 2004 with ASPO's predictions of what might occur afterwards. After a short plateau, it is expected to drop away (although it won't be as smooth as shown, of course). The comparisons with the Hubbert Curve are clear until the 1970s when the OPEC-induced oil crisis messed up the slope.

[SIZE=-1]Source: ASPO[/SIZE]

Peak oil could turn out to be very nasty or not of course. The main reason for me to be sanguine is that people have been saying peak oil is nearly with us since the 70s at the very least.

Clearly one day they will be right. However free markets for oil will push up the price of oil as it runs lower causing people to use and create substitutes. The higher the oil price, the greater the incentive to use something else.

PS I am serious about peak phosphate. Apparently the world is running out. I have no idea if that's true but I believe it to be.

sabretoothtigger

I believe in peak and peak phosphate just like I believe in peak population, we'll surely run out of room one day but in the mean time apparently everyone in the world can fit onto the isle of white standing up if they wanted but who'd want to live standing up.

Im sure some clever bods will envisage a much better alternative given time

Apparently Im too late /o\
http://wiki.answers.com/Q/Can_the_worlds_population_fit_onto_the_Isle_of_Wight

Conrad

Oil is just a phasing phase, just a blip when you consider the Human race could be around for a couple of billion years. As it runs dry and the price increases, we will simply find alternatives. In Dupont can be found a facility that grows organisms thats waste output is pure ethanol for example.

Pobby

Question. I read somewhere that house prices are not that connected greatly to the stock market.Would you say that the ftse could go into another bull run starting some time next year?

WTF?_2

Conrad wrote: »

Oil is just a phasing phase, just a blip when you consider the Human race could be around for a couple of billion years. As it runs dry and the price increases, we will simply find alternatives. In Dupont can be found a facility that grows organisms thats waste output is pure ethanol for example.

It may be just a passing blip but our entire Western way of life (also a passing blip) is based upon the cheap energy that oil provides.

Either we discover nuclear fusion or longer term we face making substantial changes to our lifestyles whether we want to or not.

sabretoothtigger

Bio diesel is a big subject, its definitly possible to create natural oil far more efficently then we do presently but possible and feasible as a business are separate things unfortunately.

Apparently the high yield oil plants are very fragile and expensive to keep.
The cheap oil is the ready made stuff just waiting to be pumped out of the ground, they cant compete with that, so energy production is all about the price


http://wiki.answers.com/Q/Special:Search&search=biodiesel&limitn=old

Yield

Feedstock yield efficiency per acre affects the feasibility of ramping up production to the huge industrial levels required to power a significant percentage of national or world vehicles.



Some typical yields in cubic decimeters (liters) of biodiesel per hectare (10,000 square meters):

• Algae: 2763 dm3 (liter) or more (~300 gallons per acre; est.- see soy figures and DOE quote below)
• Hemp: 1535 dm3[46]
• Chinese tallow: 772 dm3[47] - 970 GPa[48]
• Palm oil: 780 - 1490 dm3 [49]
• Coconut: 353 dm3[49]
• Rapeseed: 157 dm3[49]
• Soy: 76-161 dm3 in Indiana[50] (Soy is used in 80% of USA biodiesel[51])
• Peanut: 138 dm3[49]
• Sunflower: 126 dm3[49]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biodiesel



If you have a diesel car you can walk into a supermarket instead of the petrol station and (at least partially, some cars totally) use cooking oil to fuel the car.
Obviously check your facts before you do this, however it is a reality today

Pobby wrote: »

Question. I read somewhere that house prices are not that connected greatly to the stock market.Would you say that the ftse could go into another bull run starting some time next year?

I expect the market will recover before the general economy but I also believe people who say this trouble will last for years and get much worse.
Also they may not have been connected previously but the boom in prices was linked heavily to banks, their policies, their credit, finances. Now the reverse is true the negatives are also tied most likely and it'll be some time before either market has the power to operate independently

The more government intervenes into the market the longer we have to wait for the two fortunes to separate I reckon, ie. building societies arent able to lend so much at very low interest rates, etc

kennyboy66_2

Generali wrote: »

Apparently peak phosphate is the panic du jour for the modern tin hat wearing cognoscenti. It's going to 'run out' in about 25 years at which point we all starve.

The return of "night soil" as a fertiliser beckons.

Excrement can also be used in the tanning process for leather.

Moneysavers and tin-hatters are, as we speak, stockpiling for when the price takes off.

After all "where there's muck, there's brass"