Are house prices really going down?

kennyboy66_2

Dithering_Dad wrote: »

Surely if you are expecting the home owner to drop by a further 10-12%, then they're taking the risk, not you?

As far as the home owners not accepting your £250k offers....

The 289k property was marketed from July 2008, so if we average the 15% drop over the last 12 months, we have 1.24% drops MoM. This means that since July we have seen an average of 7.5% reduction in house prices.

The £289k house was initially marketed for £329, which is a drop of £40k and represents about a 12.16% drop. So they have already over discounted for the percentage drop since July.

You now want them to drop a further £39k, down to £250. This represents a further 13.49% and a whopping 24% from original market price.

So to recap, since July the market has fallen 7.5%, yet you expect this home owner to accept a 24% drop in the same period?

With bare figures like that, do you not see why you are not being taken seriously?

You misunderstand, the OP is doing these sellers a favour.

Dithering_Dad

Some people seem to be expecting home owners to look at what their houses were selling for back in 2003, but according to most figures, house prices have fallen back to 2006 figures.

Perhaps accurate comparisons should therefore be made against 2006 figures and not 2003? Just a thought.

lostinrates

Dithering_Dad wrote: »

Surely if you are expecting the home owner to drop by a further 10-12%, then they're taking the risk, not you?
?

Aren't both parties?

kennyboy66_2

sympatex wrote: »

Skap - Found exactly the same in my area Guildford way. I look at 2003 prices and judge whether a house is fairly valued, it seems at the moment houses valued today at 230 (having come down from 270!!) were bought for 185 in 2003. I don't mind paying 200 for those houses but nothing more and i have been rejected on all occasions. We're not quite through the denial stage yet. Maybe it will happen where their house is valued in Euro's rather than £'s they will accept life's different.

But at the end of it all, if they want to move they have to accept and i think its the vendors who will blink first, they have a mortgage.

Its nothing to do with denial!

And its not a game of poker.

Most of these people will only move their prices down if they can get an equally good deal if they are trading up, but they have the same problem as you.

We will see several years where the number of transactions miles less than 2001-2006/7.

A 'sticky' market.

IveSeenTheLight

lostinrates wrote: »

Aren't both parties?

It's not a buyers risk when they are negotiating a drop before their deposit is taken into account.

I can see it being a sellers risk as they have to try and negotiate a similar discount

domcastro

My friends house was on the market for 290k - I don't know if this was realistically priced as they became desperate and just accepted a 220k offer from a FTB

Dithering_Dad

It amazes me that buyers are wondering why sellers won't agree to them factoring future drops into their house purchases.

It's akin to going to a car dealership and saying to the salesman "Well, according to the Automart, this car will depreciate by 60% over the next three years, therefore instead of £30k, I'm going to offer you £18k. Take it or leave it".

I can't wait for HPI to come around again. Sellers will be going "Well, according to projected HPI figures, this house will gain £80k over the next 3 years, so instead of selling it at today's price of £200k, I'll let you buy it for £280k. Take it or leave it".

Or how about going into a supermarket. "Well, this loaf of bread is worth 30p now, but I know for a fact that in 2 week's time it'll be worthless and thrown into the bin. I'll give you 1p for it. Take it or leave it."

If you're buying a house today then you should expect to pay today's prices. If you want to pay 2012 prices, then wait until 2012. It's not rocket science!! :rotfl:

carolt

Dithering_Dad wrote: »

It amazes me that buyers are wondering why sellers won't agree to them factoring future drops into their house purchases.

It's akin to going to a car dealership and saying to the salesman "Well, according to the Automart, this car will depreciate by 60% over the next three years, therefore instead of £30k, I'm going to offer you £18k. Take it or leave it".

I can't wait for HPI to come around again. Sellers will be going "Well, according to projected HPI figures, this house will gain £80k over the next 3 years, so instead of selling it at today's price of £200k, I'll let you buy it for £280k. Take it or leave it".

Or how about going into a supermarket. "Well, this loaf of bread is worth 30p now, but I know for a fact that in 2 week's time it'll be worthless and thrown into the bin. I'll give you 1p for it. Take it or leave it."

If you're buying a house today then you should expect to pay today's prices. If you want to pay 2012 prices, then wait until 2012. It's not rocket science!! :rotfl:

But that's exactly what people did do - a house would sell for, say 200K - the next day, their next door neighbours would put their house on the market for 220K, because 'it's a rising market'.

That's how markets work. If people think they can get 20K more/less now (depending on their position), they will.

Otherwise, the seller in question may fail to sell at all for 3 or 6 months or whatever, by which time prices will have fallen further. So it might well be in their interest to sell now and have the cash in the bank. ( Or conversely, the buyer in a rising market buy without quibbling, because he agreed with the assessment that it would cost more if he waited.)

And that's not counting those who have to sell now, because they are facing repossession/have problem debts etc, for whom any offer is better than none.

nixinix

jenner wrote: »

3 bed semi with garage is a ftb property??????

I was a FTB, as were all my neighbours (some sold and moved on whilst we were there too to more FTB) as were my buyers.......because you get alot of accomodation for your money!!! Only one reception room, and smallish kitchen though so not an ideal family home, and small garden, garage in block on attached to house...... I can only tell you what I know about the area and how the properties were brought and sold in the 7 years I lived there!
Also school catchment not great!

I told my buyers that I would accept their offer if mine was accepted - i.e because they offered me less than asking I would have to pass it down the line so effectively I didn't loose out otherwise I could not afford to move. It meant I they had to wait a week (our buy was repo) but it paid off. Maybe the properties for sale think they know the budget they need to move - they should be negotiating the deal up if pos before dismissing the offer - in my humble opinion!

Dithering_Dad

carolt wrote: »

But that's exactly what people did do - a house would sell for, say 200K - the next day, their next day neighbours would put their house on the market for 220K, because 'it's a rising market'.

That's how markets work. If people think they can get 20K more/less now (depending on their position), they will.

Otherwise, the seller in question may fail to sell at all for 3 or 6 months or whatever, by which time prices will have fallen further. So it might well be in their interest to sell now and have the cash in the bank. ( Or conversely, the buyer in a rising market buy without quibbling, because he agreed with the assessment that it would cost more if he waited.)

And that's not counting those who have to sell now, because they are facing repossession/have problem debts etc, for whom any offer is better than none.

Yay! Hi Carol. Lovely to see you back on the boards. I missed you. (I mean that too - I'm not being sarcastic).

I don't disagree with that you say, but I suspect that a seller wouldn't be moaning on a website about "unreasonable buyers who won't buy their overpriced house" and how it's "unfair that I'm taking all of the risk that after I sell my house it may go up in value by 20%!"

I stand by my remarks that if people want to buy now then they have to pay 2008 prices. If people think that prices will halve by 2013, then they should hold off buying and then pay the going rate in 2013.

Come now carol, surely you can't argue with that logic?