When do you think house prices will hit the bottom of the market?

dopester

June 2013 or later

penguine wrote: »

I decided to be an extremist and choose the last date on your list, because I think the global economy is in big trouble and even if we don't have another depression, the recession is going to drag on for a long while.

Exactly the same reasoning here. 2013+ but that doesn't mean to say I won't buy before then.

stevetodd

June 2011

I can't believe the most voted for (at the time of this post) December 2009, why on earth do people think the market will pick up in December, the winter is traditionally very quiet. Not to mention there has got to be more than 12 months of this crash left to run yet.

mitchaa

June 2009

stevetodd wrote: »

I can't believe the most voted for (at the time of this post) December 2009, why on earth do people think the market will pick up in December, the winter is traditionally very quiet. Not to mention there has got to be more than 12 months of this crash left to run yet.

Interest rates at record lows, the budget announcement yesterday, houses being close to what experts would deem affordable, the sheer amount of numbers itching to buy

Its only the true doom and gloom (The 80% crash loonies) that want to believe that everything is doomed.

This time next year, it will all be recovering.

Why on earth would you think that it will go past december 2009 is more to the point:p

Cannon_Fodder

December 2009

I would have gone for Spring 2010 if available.

Not sure it will all be done and dusted by then, but should be some good bargains, and with Winter being so quiet it could be a good time to be a step ahead of the "herd"...

...although it might limit options on whats available.

Will review in another 9 months, of course, as it could be wildly optimistic...

Cannon_Fodder

December 2009

mitchaa wrote: »

Interest rates at record lows, the budget announcement yesterday, houses being close to what experts would deem affordable, the sheer amount of numbers itching to buy

Its only the true doom and gloom (The 80% crash loonies) that want to believe that everything is doomed.

This time next year, it will all be recovering.

Why on earth would you think that it will go past december 2009 is more to the point:p

Its difficult to explain to someone too young to remember an event in the past, how things take time to pan out.

We've currently done about 1/5th of the 80s crash, in timescale.

Maybe there are factors, like the internet, that will shorten the event.

Maybe there are factors, like the credit crunch, that will lengthen the event.

Short of day in, day out "doom and gloom" awareness techniques, it is not possible to "upload" into your brain the way things dragged, that every spring people thought right, away we go, oh no we don't, and it dragged around through another winter, right here we go, oh no...etc

Having said which the bulk of drops were in the first 18-24 months...and as you can't pick the very bottom next winter might not be far out for a bargain, although it will probably be spring 2010 before we will know for sure...

Stop being impatient. Its not a TV prog/film that must provide the answer in 90 minutes, its reality - it takes time to work its way through.

RabbitMad

June 2011

stevetodd wrote: »

I can't believe the most voted for (at the time of this post) December 2009, why on earth do people think the market will pick up in December, the winter is traditionally very quiet. Not to mention there has got to be more than 12 months of this crash left to run yet.

They might not think the market will pick up, just that the price falls will stop and we'll enter a period of stagnation with prices neither rising or falling.

Personally I think that the bottom will be Spring 2011, with the sales completing around june time. Then a couple of years (prehaps 3) of just seasonal increases / decreases before a slow rise for a few years (say 5) followed by more rampent rises leading to another bubble over the next 5 to 10 years.

TDS_2

December 2009

stevetodd wrote: »

I can't believe the most voted for (at the time of this post) December 2009, why on earth do people think the market will pick up in December, the winter is traditionally very quiet. Not to mention there has got to be more than 12 months of this crash left to run yet.

I don't think the market will pick up in Dec 2009, and I suspect few who voted for Dec '09 thought that either. I simply believe that it will stop declining then. It will remain in the doldrums for much longer...

skap7309

December 2009

mitchaa wrote: »

houses being close to what experts would deem affordable, the sheer amount of numbers itching to buy

:rotfl: :rotfl: Are they buying? Did not think so. :rotfl:

Also, 'experts' predicted a 5% rise for this year.........good job they are around otherwise we would be in trouble.

skap7309

December 2009

mitchaa wrote: »

the sheer amount of numbers itching to buy

An intersting point. If so many are waiting to but then why not jump in now? Of course, waiting for the bottom, eh? If house prices need buyers to be propped up and no-one is taking the plunge (waiting for the bottom) then does it continue falling? Yes.

That is the definition of deflation as a whole. Everyone waits......people loose jobs....prices come down.........everyone waits for them to become cheaper........people loose more jobs...........continue cycle.

Point being - when is the bottom reached then?

A very dangerous scenario for the country if you ask me.

Cannon_Fodder

December 2009

The experts can't agree what will happen next year, you pays your money (or not) and you takes your choice.

http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7727893.stm

HOUSE PRICE PREDICTIONS 2009

Capital Economics - "another 15-20% off prices"
CML - "to keep falling"
Halifax - "20% fall over 2008 and 2009"
housepricecrash.co.uk - "prices will fall by 15-20%"
Nationwide - "prices to continue to fall"
Ray Boulger - "prices will drift in 2009"
Rics - "prices will slip in the first half of the year"