When do you think house prices will hit the bottom of the market?

WTF?_2

December 2009

I went for Dec 2009 but I think it's more likely to be Spring 2010 when the falls stop and the market starts scraping along the bottom. It's the Spring Bounce at last, innit?

(But massive inflation from all these 'emergency delfation-fighting measures' could certainly cause a rebound in prices earlier if it takes off).

TDS_2

December 2009

The bottom isn't so far away (12 to 18 months by most peoples estimation). Prices may well 'rise' after this point in nominal terms, but it will likely be less than or equal to inflation for a good few years. (In this humble posters view). In real terms, 3 years (approx.) of drops followed by 3 or 4 years stagnation. It's easy to see why some people believe it'll be 10+ years until we reach the dizzy heights of Aug 2007.

StevieJ

June 2009

June 09 0n the Land Registry actual figures.

wolfman

June 2010

mitchaa wrote: »

You have predicted another 43 months before the market drops? Any particular reason to your suspicions?

Lets just say a very slow decline from now on, so if the market were to drop 1% every month for the next 43 months we would have a national average house price ITRO of £100k. (Based on nationwide current stats)

Annual salaries are continuing to rise, they did so in the last year so why not next year and so on? 4.5% rises upto June 2012 will put the Av salary at around £31k

£100k house prices and £31k average salary.

You are then getting very close to the average couple buying a mansion and a professional couple buying a castle scenario with these sorts of figures;)

This is basing it on very conservative drops of 1% also, so far i do not think we have seen MOM drops this low.

Who knows eh, we are all guessing. We may all get houses free when the tories are elected:D

Hmmm 1% is quite a big drop per month in your example. If you're looking at a period that long, it may only drop 0.2% for example each month.

Also we shouldn't use the average salary, it's a very poor indicator. The median is far better, of which I think from what I remember reading is around £23k. I can't see that going up hugely especially as we enter a recession, and also with inflation dropping (reportedly to 1% in the coming future).

If you look at the 90's the bottom wasn't hit for quite some time. Also all the changes the government are making are leading towards a longer and more shallow depression, rather than quick and deep. It's taken 1 year already and house prices have dropped, but not all over the places. And we're still getting banks in trouble every few months (Citi recently).

43 months is a long way off, but I wouldn't discount it. My prediction is nearer 18 months.

thegibdog

December 2010

I've gone for December 2010 as I'd expect next year to see similar drops to this year before slowing in 2010 and the first increases being seen in spring 2011.

StevieJ

June 2009

wolfman wrote: »

Hmmm 1% is quite a big drop per month in your example. If you're looking at a period that long, it may only drop 0.2% for example each month.

Also we shouldn't use the average salary, it's a very poor indicator. The median is far better, of which I think from what I remember reading is around £23k. I can't see that going up hugely especially as we enter a recession, and also with inflation dropping (reportedly to 1% in the coming future).

If you look at the 90's the bottom wasn't hit for quite some time. Also all the changes the government are making are leading towards a longer and more shallow depression, rather than quick and deep. It's taken 1 year already and house prices have dropped, but not all over the places. And we're still getting banks in trouble every few months (Citi recently).

43 months is a long way off, but I wouldn't discount it. My prediction is nearer 18 months.

Interest rates of 2% compared to 14% in 1990, economy back positive growth Q409, many people on the sidelines wanting to buy, many people in their houses not wanting/needing to sell.
Inflation on the agenda 12 months down the line, government printing money this housing downturn wont last long!
In fact if the banks were willing to add support (100% LV) it would be over now, but the FTB's will soon have their deposits.

WTF?_2

December 2009

This economic growth in Q409 of which you speak - where is it going to come from, exactly?

And do you honestly think that the only reason holding back 100% mortgage lending is that the banks have just decided it as a matter of policy?

It seems to have escaped your notice that the credit pump is irrevocably broken and a sustainable replacement will take a good few years to arrive. The only thing than can replace it quickly is the money printing machine.

poppysarah

December 2011

I think there's a long way down yet.
Dec 11.

StevieJ

June 2009

!!!!!!? wrote: »

This economic growth in Q409 of which you speak - where is it going to come from, exactly?

And do you honestly think that the only reason holding back 100% mortgage lending is that the banks have just decided it as a matter of policy?

It seems to have escaped your notice that the credit pump is irrevocably broken and a sustainable replacement will take a good few years to arrive. The only thing than can replace it quickly is the money printing machine.

Did I not just say that?

Kez100

December 2010

I think it will take ages. Far longer than I had expected.

Sellers are not droppng, that is common, so the market is left to adjust itself with desparate sellers and repossessions. Now we are going to get less repossessions so it will be left to a smaller market to make the adjustment.

The market has to come down to FTB territory to become a proper market again. Until it does recovery cannot start.

I would love it to happen quickly but it ain't gonna.