inverted yield curve

free4440273

I never said i had vested interests in this 'argument' - you provided that 'theory'. I simply opinionated, that is all. I stand by my original claim: nasty and unprecedented recession with us 'soon'. Interest rates will go up both here and across the atlantic. More pointedly, they deserve to go up, and the people at the helm know it. The repercussions will be huge with regards to the housing market, people's indebtedness, government's borrowing, zero savings etc. But like i said before, some people only learn the hard way. As for people [myself!] predicting a recession "which never seems to happen" - the longer the duration period without a recession occuring is even more worrying: this just means, when it does occur, it will be even more nasty, lengthier, and problematic. Also, re oil [another poster] which has not hit the 'tipping point' yet - therefore no adverse effects. It will need to reach $90, which it can reach in the blink of an eye [Iran].
So the recession has not occured yet - fine, it's just been postponed [and that in itself is worrying!]. : Have a good evening everyone. :eek:

mdb99jh

free4440273 wrote:

I never said i had vested interests in this 'argument' - you provided that 'theory'. I simply opinionated, that is all. I stand by my original claim: nasty and unprecedented recession with us 'soon'.

'Free' you are very 'funny', I 'love' the way you put 'everything' in between 'apostrophes'! I love your crystal ball predictions too - you remind of of one of those guys walking around in sackcloth with a big plackard that says "the end is nigh!" loooool :rotfl:

free4440273

and you represent which hedge fund??? I wonder...If i am 'funny' , you are totally wacko...

Deemy

The way I see it, we have had an extraordinary good run, we are already into a slowing economy which coincides with the electoral cycle i.e. of getting the pain out of the way early on in the electoroal cycle so that a feel good boom can be engineered for the next election.

Which suggests that 2006 will be an increasingly tough year, and with a sifinificant probability of 2007 being a recession year..

That would give Gorden brown 2 years or so to engineer recovery for the next election.

It would be incredible if we go another 5 years without a recession !

mdb99jh

free4440273 wrote:

and you represent which hedge fund??? I wonder...If i am 'funny' , you are totally wacko...

'wacko' - now there's a 'groovy' word you don't here 'every day'!

exil

So that's what I thought. The recession clairvoyants have no intention of acting on their predictions, so it's a case of "we're all DOOMED I tell ye!"

OK. There may be a recession this year. Next year. Next century. It might consist
of a slight dip in growth, or a horrendous crash. Who knows? Not anyone here I think.

If you really think a crash is about to happen, sell all shares and property, rent a house, close bank accounts and get into hard cash. Unfortunately if there is instead a big dose of inflation (the other big unknown), you'll look fairly silly.

And Gordon Brown may be a magician (if you like him) or a charlatan (if you don't) but
he isn't capable of creating a world-wide recession.

free4440273

and you like him? ok...

free4440273

'groovy' - sounds intriguing...
"Top of the league" :-)

cloud_dog

I think we need to be careful not to confuse stock market fluctuations (crashes) with recession. Stock markets fluctuate as the underlying stock valuations fluctuate; a stock market correction / crash can happen when valuations get out of synch with reality or there is political or geographical instabilities. A recession needs to have three quarters of negative growth in an economy (I beleive its generally accepted as three).

cloud_dog

hobbesandco

Recession is actually defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth rather than three.