Inflation figures

purch

they can't all be right

Well #7 is close to the truth, with the 50 year paper HM Gov is selling nowadays. :rolleyes:



What surprises me are all the posters on here, who seem to think #1, #2 and #3 will all happen.................simultaneously !!!!! :eek:

Now that would be a marvel of Gordonomics !!! :T

chucky

!!!!!!? wrote: »

Pedantry, thy name is StevieJ. I see you bulls are just ratcheting up the nitpicky attacks, enough of this rubbish for one day.

don't flatter yourself old chap - it's good to see that you're realising that your ""The sun will rise in the morning and fall in the evening economic trend analysis" is absolute rubbish. :rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

setmefree2

!!!!!!? wrote: »

What sort of a stupid non-sequitur is that? When did I ever criticise the economy for "not being perfect" - I'm complaining that it has been especially appallingly badly run. The fact that there has never been a perfect golden age of economic perfection is really neither here nor there.


Ah - the old "You got what you wanted" line that has been trotted out by irrational bulls since this group was created... You've crossed over from actually debating into just personal nitpicking.

It's been "especially appallingly badly run" Quote. Well this is plainly not true. If you can't come up with a perfect era - try coming up with any era when you think our economy has been well run in your view?

Also, you should take a more global of view of where we are - most people on this planet are a lot worse of than us. I make no apology for being grateful for what I've got. I consider myself to be very fortunate. I imagine there a vast number of people on this planet who wish they were walking in my shoes. You should try to be more grateful for what you have, though I suspect this is not in your nature.

Generali

Even without the banking problems, the way the world economy is structured at the moment could lead to deflation anyway.

There seems to be an idea that deflation can only be caused by a contraction of the money supply. That isn't true. It can also be caused by an excess supply of goods which in turn is caused by too much investment.

This is very unusual because the market systen means that price signals make it unprofitable to invest in areas with oversupply so the expansion stops. However, the Chinese have been investing in massive amounts of capacity and getting the banks to invest for political rather than financial reasons.

As a result, the world has a massive oversupply of goods and this in itself could cause worldwide deflation*.





*Please note that nowhere in this thread have I mentionned the End of the World/Capitalist System. Merely that the price level may drop.
I am planning to put my money where my mouth is too as I have had a blinding idea for a business to set up in Aus based on the premise that we'll have either very low inflation or deflation due to oversupply for a while.

treliac

Generali wrote: »

I am planning to put my money where my mouth is too as I have had a blinding idea for a business to set up in Aus based on the premise that we'll have either very low inflation or deflation due to oversupply for a while.

You will, of course, keep us posted as to your progress? :T

dopester

Generali wrote: »

As a result, the world has a massive oversupply of goods and this in itself could cause worldwide deflation*..

All of that is why I'm going to know the UK is in a terrible position, and under stupid political leadership, if new ideas come forward to open and invest borrowed money in UK manufacturing centres of excellence.

The world has massive manufacturing over-capacity built up over the last 60 years. We need people to step on to the information technology production line and similar, to bring about creative and advanced new ideas we can sell to market.

setmefree2

kennyboy66 wrote: »

I don't see many reasons to be optimistic, given that the economy seems likely to contract for the whole of next year and unemployment will continue to rise, probably for the next 18 months. This combined with huge government debt and private debt adds to the gloom.

Reason To Be Cheerful:-

Inflaton 4.5% and falling

Interest rates are 3%:j (I have a tracker with no collar;))

Pound/ Dollar $1.5

Unemployment is only at 5% (and we are also still employing most of Poland)

Oil is $50 a bar

All commodity prices are falling

Jonbvn

Excellent thread, and I just love this word: "Catastrophists".

BTW, the bolding of phrases for emphasis is unecessary.

mitchaa

!!!!!!? wrote: »

Yep, get in the digs. Why on earth would I want to post gloomy news? I post the news as I see it - it just so happens that it's overwhelmingly bad because the economy is totally screwed and set to get even worse.

Have you ever heard of the term tunnel vision !!!!!!?

You can interpret even the best news bad, it's just the way you look and analyse it.

The best example to use is the recent release of unemployment figures. 140k in 3 months is bad news, but if you tunnel in on that figure rather than the yearly unemployment figures a whole different picture is painted.

All im saying is, look at things in more depth rather than just headline figures.

Inflation is coming down, i believe you predicted it would not a month or so ago, so just take it on the chin that you were perhaps wrong

You've not just been given the tag of MSE Mr doom and gloom for nothing, you've earned that over the last 6 months or so with your world ending predictions.

Im sure if there was an outbreak of a deadly disease in 1 tiny village in the shetland islands, it would soon spread to the mainland, the entire country, europe and then take over the world;) You hear enough doom and gloom covered by the press, no need to have so much of it on here too:p

Post number 58 sums it up

dopester

mitchaa wrote: »

Inflation is coming down, i believe you predicted it would not a month or so ago, so just take it on the chin that you were perhaps wrong

Hello... even Gordy has now admitted we have the problem of deflation ahead.

Deflation is going to be very bad for people with debt. As inflation gradually wipes away debt away for debtors.... deflation is going to magnify people's debts the other way around.

DEFLATION. Remember the word. It will be the downfall of so many.