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Debate House Prices
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Inflation figures
Comments
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Indeedy. Even zero percent inflation just means prices are staying the same as they were a year ago, like most people's salaries.
But don't let that get in the way of the bulls deluding themselves. I think we're seeing some sort of mass hysteria and desire to be optimistic as well as a fair bit of antagonism. Possibly we are seeing our herd of resident bulls going between denial and anger.
LOL :rotfl:I'm not antagonistic. I just don't see what all the fuss is about. I repeat inflation is 4.5%, unemployement is 5%, sterling is $1.50. Hardly Thatcher's Britain. I still think you are a pessimist. What you going to do - spend your life in a permanent state of depression and anxiety because the economy's not running perfectly? You never did answer my question - When was the economy ever run perfectly?
You've got what you wanted - house prices are crashing and you're still not happy. Doesn't that tell you something?0 -
Hardly Thatcher's Britain
No.........
.............but the way some people talk we are be going back to Nicholas Nicklebey and Mr Pickwick's Britain !!!!'In nature, there are neither rewards nor punishments - there are Consequences.'0 -
You were arguing in another thread that NR started the UK housing decline were you not?
UK Housing started to go off the boil (Jun/Jul 07) before Northern Rock (Sept 07) and before the collapse in mortgage availability (Feb 08) . They just made it even worse and sped us along into an out and out housing landslide.
No I didn't, I was reponding to you saying that house prices have had fallen three months before the credit crunch. First falls Aug 07 (reported Sept07) NR in trouble Sept 07.
And I quote.
(Oh, and as it happened the UK market started showing month on month falls about 3 months before mortgage availability started to take a big hit so the notion that somehow things would have been fine if only those yanks hadn't messed up is doubly wrong.)'Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers visible or invisible giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the worlds wealthiest and most prosperous people' Margaret Thatcher0 -
setmefree2 wrote: »LOL :rotfl:What's the opposite of rose tinted glasses?
Turd-tinted?...much enquiry having been made concerning a gentleman, who had quitted a company where Johnson was, and no information being obtained; at last Johnson observed, that 'he did not care to speak ill of any man behind his back, but he believed the gentleman was an attorney'.0 -
No I didn't, I was reponding to you saying that house prices have had fallen three months before the credit crunch. First falls Aug 07 (reported Sept07) NR in trouble Sept 07.
And I quote.
(Oh, and as it happened the UK market started showing month on month falls about 3 months before mortgage availability started to take a big hit so the notion that somehow things would have been fine if only those yanks hadn't messed up is doubly wrong.)
Just referencing the Barratt thread which got this from the Guardian:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/nov/18/house-prices-fallingHousebuilder Barratt Developments warned this morning that house prices will have fallen by up to 20% by the end of the year compared with the peak of the market in July 2007.
(I take it they are referencing the Nationwide figures.)
That's before NR and long before mortgage availability restrictions happened. So no blaming the US credit crunch for our market falling- people just hit their limit in the UK as they had done earlier in the US.
Unfortunately, since the US market had been powering the credit pump and since European banks had greedily participated in investing in it, it has had even more profound effects than just a US housing crash would normally have. Worsening our fall thanks to the pulling of the rug of dodgy credit away suddenly and putting the dunces in our banking system who have increasingly relied upon funding from the money markets since 2000 in a tight spot.
We are now about to witness all that reckless UK lending coming home to roost, on top of the woe caused by the US sub-prime crisis. It's not going to be pretty.--
Every pound less borrowed (to buy a house) is more than two pounds less to repay and more than three pounds less to earn, over the course of a typical mortgage.0 -
Do not wish to be pedantic but you wrote:
UK Housing started to go off the boil (Jun/Jul 07)
And they said it peaked in July.
Actually in that post, I notice your emphasis changing, well done I will give you that star after all.'Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers visible or invisible giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the worlds wealthiest and most prosperous people' Margaret Thatcher0 -
setmefree2 wrote: »LOL :rotfl:I'm not antagonistic. I just don't see what all the fuss is about. I repeat inflation is 4.5%, unemployement is 5%, sterling is $1.50. Hardly Thatcher's Britain. I still think you are a pessimist. What you going to do - spend your life in a permanent state of depression and anxiety because the economy's not running perfectly? You never did answer my question - When was the economy ever run perfectly?
What sort of a stupid non-sequitur is that? When did I ever criticise the economy for "not being perfect" - I'm complaining that it has been especially appallingly badly run. The fact that there has never been a perfect golden age of economic perfection is really neither here nor there.
Ah - the old "You got what you wanted" line that has been trotted out by irrational bulls since this group was created... You've crossed over from actually debating into just personal nitpicking.You've got what you wanted - house prices are crashing and you're still not happy. Doesn't that tell you something?--
Every pound less borrowed (to buy a house) is more than two pounds less to repay and more than three pounds less to earn, over the course of a typical mortgage.0 -
Do not wish to be pedantic but you wrote:
UK Housing started to go off the boil (Jun/Jul 07)
And they said it peaked in July.
Pedantry, thy name is StevieJ. I see you bulls are just ratcheting up the nitpicky attacks, enough of this rubbish for one day.--
Every pound less borrowed (to buy a house) is more than two pounds less to repay and more than three pounds less to earn, over the course of a typical mortgage.0 -
Pedantry, thy name is StevieJ. I see you bulls are just ratcheting up the nitpicky attacks, enough of this rubbish for one day.
That is not fair, you missed the bit off where I congratulated you.'Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers visible or invisible giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the worlds wealthiest and most prosperous people' Margaret Thatcher0 -
But don't let that get in the way of the bulls deluding themselves. I think we're seeing some sort of mass hysteria and desire to be optimistic as well as a fair bit of antagonism. Possibly we are seeing our herd of resident bulls going between denial and anger.
I don't see many reasons to be optimistic, given that the economy seems likely to contract for the whole of next year and unemployment will continue to rise, probably for the next 18 months. This combined with huge government debt and private debt adds to the gloom.
What is truly bizarre is that some peoples response to this is to not cut interest rates and panic/gloat over the level of sterling.
Things are bad, and will get worse before they get better.
What is most amusing are the Catastrophists that are convined that the current circumstances will definitely result in one of the following;
1) 1930's style deflation
2) 1970's style stagflation.
3) Wiemar style inflation.
4) World War
5) A take over of the UK by "Mohammedans"
6) Communism to rule the country.
7) Not just our children, but our grand-children to have to pay off todays debts.
You are bound to upset one of them when you point out that they can't all be right.US housing: it's not a bubble
Moneyweek, December 20050
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