BBC - How low will house prices go in 2009?

PasturesNew

I vote for house prices being what they were in 2001-2002 by the end of 2010.

dopester

My bet is Labours plans for borrowing and spending near aimlessly will be met by opposition from the market itself. The market the government expects to borrow from, to add even more to debt to national debt .

If the markets refuse, or set the price of borrowing too high, and unless the government and BoE is happy to see a collapse of sterling, that could mean making public spending cuts and letting things dramatically play out for themselves for a full scale depression, with tougher times ahead.

Some -70% deals to be bargained for in 2009 I believe, with official figures probably at -25%, and more in 2010.

adr0ck

dopester wrote: »

I point you back to the 70% thread.

ummm dopester that was my point (so you agree with me now)

luvpump

StevieJ wrote: »

Strange, everyone on here ridcules the estimates when they were going up, now they treat them as gospel, I wonder why?
Top to bottom -20%, bottom by April 09, LR figures June/July.

I guess we all have some kind of an Axe to grind stevie, but seriously... to bottom in April ?? Not a chance !!!

phil_b_2

It seems everyone has their own little crystal ball. Anything could happen in these times.

With interest rates coming down and the average price falling at a fair rate it won't be long until many folk start to think more seriously about getting on the ladder. I'd expect the rate of drops to start slowing sometime soon.

In a couple of months I will be able to get a mortgage a fair amount cheaper than what it is costing me to rent (I already can in fact), so rent prices will have to come down too.

scousethife

amcluesent wrote: »

Reversion to mean of 3.5*average income, but with an initial 5% overshoot on the downside.

Then again, Iran has test fired a missile capable of reaching Europe so maybe we'll just have a war.

As long as it cant reach our side I dont care, and if it can reach the headquarters of the EU I'm sending Iran an email to beg them to fire it.

That one missile would save tax payers billions (best send Mandelson back for the morning though)

Ephemera

I reckon on an average fall of about 40-50% in my local area (Dorset) as we are long on service industry and short on manufacturing...
Should make a nice bungalow/house with a big garden affordable for me as long as I can keep my job too!
It's going to be pretty grim though, and if the Pound is devalued it MIGHT help us out a bit, if, relative to other currencies, it makes British goods cheaper...BUT that assumes other countries have money to buy what we can produce.
We're in for interesting times....!

mean_momma

One point: crash price reports will be based on sales that are possibly at a falsely low price, i.e. forced sales, or sales that had to take place at the lowest point. Lower prices are actually good news if you are buying as well as selling, (unless you are in negative equity), so may stir up some action. Also, in London, wealthy foreigners are taking advantage of the low pound. Two flats in our block have recently been sold for prices that I would not describe as 'distressed'. Once there is renewed activity in the market, I think that prices will start to creep up again, but 'when' is the big question.

Jonbvn

Personally, I believe house prices are likely to fall for the next year. However, given the extraordinary financial situation, I would never make a prediction of how much. As an example, 6 months ago who would have guessed that sterling would now be @$1.50 and interest rates @3%?

Davesnave

The last 12 months have taught me that predicting anything related to the economy is almost a waste of time, and that preparing for the worst is the only sensible strategy now the recession is with us.

As a pure guess, I'd imagine similar falls to this years' but, there again, location has a huge bearing, so areas that have fallen quickly may fare better than those where the downturn has come later. So, 10-20% further to go depending on type and location, which translates into something like 10 - 50% over the two years....pretty vague, but you just can't lump high rise flats and nice, detached £750k houses near London together, can you?

As someone else said, sentiment is going to play a big part, so how the government/media handle the repos may have quite a significant effect, with those who might otherwise step into the market holding back through a combination of fear and the expectation that prices will continue to tank. Without the FTBs on-board, even if finance is more accessible, the bulk of the market is going nowhere.