BBC - How low will house prices go in 2009?

besonders1

House prices have risen dramatically from the year 2000 - 2007. Before this time I would say that the prices were affordable and offered good value for money. After this time greed has a lot to answer for - or maybe property ladder, location location shows etc fired peoples obsession to increase the value of their home or take out BTL mortgages. But now it looks like its backfired

I have seen many houses reduced lately around 10 -15% but still no buyers or sales that have fallen through.

adr0ck

i think the average will go down to £145k

but will probably overshoot by say £10k for a while (so probably go to £135k then stabalise a bit and then move back upto £145k)

and it would then be very nice if it stayed at that level for the next few years

mitchaa

ad9898 wrote: »

So even at current drops (i.e not getting any faster), you think that by March next year (when 10% more will have gone, according to recent falls), the market will bottom out ? with 6 months of recession left at least and 2 years worth of rising unemployment ?

An interesting philosophy. Incredible if it happened like that.

Incredible if it didn't happen like that

Market will bottom out around 6-9 months into 2009, followed by about 6months worth of stagnation and as soon as people get the confidence to
buy again the market will start rising again. Explain why it wont?

If you study the unemployment figures, you will find that it hasn't risen much in the last year. Those that find themselves unemployed are only doing so for a short time so not having a great deal of impact on the figures.

Ie..140k were made unemployed in the last 3 months so quite a high figure i would say however, it has only risen by 155k in the past 12 months so this shows you people are not staying unemployed for long.

The media paint a picture and everone takes it as gospel. The numbers are so small, its a sheer minority of the population as a whole.

£140k figures are affordable for average income families, it's as simple as that. If they drop significantly further than that, ordinary families will start buying multiple homes, 1 bed flats etc

StevieJ

Strange, everyone on here ridcules the estimates when they were going up, now they treat them as gospel, I wonder why?
Top to bottom -20%, bottom by April 09, LR figures June/July.

StevieJ

ad9898 wrote: »

So even at current drops (i.e not getting any faster), you think that by March next year (when 10% more will have gone, according to recent falls), the market will bottom out ? with 6 months of recession left at least and 2 years worth of rising unemployment ?

An interesting philosophy. Incredible if it happened like that.

Why not, the credit crunch has been 10 times worse for the housing market than a recession, you don't appear to understand that.
'My reasoning is prices have fallen 15% in a year when economic conditions haven't been particularly bad'

amcluesent

Reversion to mean of 3.5*average income, but with an initial 5% overshoot on the downside.

Then again, Iran has test fired a missile capable of reaching Europe so maybe we'll just have a war.

ad9898_3

StevieJ wrote: »

Why not, the credit crunch has been 10 times worse for the housing market than a recession, you don't appear to understand that.
'My reasoning is prices have fallen 15% in a year when economic conditions haven't been particularly bad'

Disagree, recession will be at least as bad for house prices as the credit crunch. Even if people don't loose their jobs(and many will), confidence will take a massive hit.

Over the past year, people have been happily going along in life until they need a mortgage or remortgage, then all of a sudden the credit crunch comes into sharp focus when they are refused or find it a lot more expensive

From now on recession will affect many, many more people, those who own outright, those who rent, those living with parents and helping with household bills. Recession knocks everyones confidence (except your mates the bailiffs;)) and there is no bigger influence on the housing market than confidence and sentiment.

FoxtonsRIP

At least 15% falls in 2009. But more probably 20-25%

sabretoothtigger

I vote next years fall at year end to be the same drop as this years.

dopester

adr0ck wrote: »

i think the average will go down to £145k

Did you read this news article fully adr0ck?

Building sites have been moth-balled, thousands of workers laid off, and millions of unsold bricks now being stockpiled around the country.

I point you back to the 70% thread.

adr0ck wrote: »

you are ignoring my comments dopester

you cannot and will not be able to build a new home to Code for sustainable homes level 3 now or in the future for £56k

costs of housebuilding are going to rocket (this is a given)