Dow

StevieJ

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Anything less then 'nuclear launch detected' will interpreted by the markets as good news and better then previously feared. :laugh:


Nah what I find sometimes is the market will lag behind slightly as the news sinks in.

The sp500 is on the edge of a support level so its not so much a case of rising but more a bounce from previous falls.
The bad news will mean it will continue to hover around this level but it is not ready to fall off a cliff and drop another 12% or whatever.

If we get something like Ford, GM and Chrysler all going bust on the same day and unemployment doubles then that is an event with enough gravity to knock the market off its ledge and it would lose that support level and plunge.

Its already achieved a new lower low just before citibank came back and so you can definitly assume the trend is still down and no bottom has been confirmed yet

If you think of a spring tide and then what happens if you get a storm on the same day, its enough to break the sea walls. I think it'll work like that

From what I heard on Blommberg the S&P has been forming higher lows since the 21st of nov.

barrooo

If you look at the bond and corporate debt markets they are still predicting further trouble ahead which is in opposition to the rallies in the stock markets.

Personally I'd go with he bond markets they seem to be a better reflection of the situation, and i'm short on the dow and S/P so I hope so

sabretoothtigger

Not sure that is a long enough time frame StevieJ, thats only 9 trading days because of their thanksgiving holidays.

The rally – albeit in light volume – came in spite of closely-watched Labor Department payroll figures that were much worse than even the most dire predictions.


In reaction to the figures, the benchmark S&P 500 dropped as much as 3.2 per cent earlier in the session to test a weekly low of 815 that had been hit during a heavy sell-off on Monday.

But traders appeared to be encouraged when the market failed to break through the key technical level, and the market subsequently rallied into the close.

“There’s a lot of things you can use to predict a bottom. One of them is when the market stops reacting adversely to negative news,” said Randy Frederick, director of trading and derivatives at Charles Schwab.

The reaction to the steepest job losses since 1974 was the latest example this week of a rally despite bleak news.

Retailers gave bulls a faint glimmer of hope when traders shrugged off the worst monthly sales performance this decade. The S&P Retail index was up 6 cent for the week in spite of the release of November sales figures that were nevertheless not quite as dire as the most pessimistic predictions.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d297b328-c2cc-11dd-a5ae-000077b07658.html


But yea I take a different view, that new low is a sign the market is still declining. Im not short or anything, the opposite in fact. I just dont believe these short term rallys are stronger then a long term decline

StevieJ

I feel naughty now posting on a thread that is not about house prices :beer:

mewbie_2

StevieJ wrote: »

I feel naughty now posting on a thread that is not about house prices :beer:

Yeah but that tingle in your pants makes it all worthwhile - will they see it, will they ban it?

Disclaimer: The tingle I am referring to is the tingle (ed: surely tinkle?) of coins as they rattle in tune to the House Price beat - down, down, deeper and down.

Kez100

What year did the FTSE 100 and DOW last fall to these levels?

(Not being lazy - I have tried googling but never find the right website)

StevieJ

Kez100 wrote: »

What year did the FTSE 100 and DOW last fall to these levels?

(Not being lazy - I have tried googling but never find the right website)

Well here is a chart of the Dow, the Ftse was 2003.

http://stockcharts.com/charts/historical/djia1900.html

Kez100

Thanks a lot Steve.

I do realise banks going under is a big thing but what I cannot get my head around is.......

Why the panic when the FTSE and DOW are only as low as 2003? That was only yesterday FGS.

Why the panic when the pound is $1.40? We know $2 was a lucky high. We had $1.50 in the 1990's when we went to the USA and were told it was good!

HP's are dropping, probably by 30-40%. I've been there and got the TShirt too in the 1990's.

Oil prices are dropping. They were far too high due to speculators and certainly when they were $50 the other day - we have seen prices like that in early 2007!

All this talk of contraction - 0.5%, or perhaps - 1.5%. Jees the USA contracted 30% in the Great Depression and these contraction levels take us back to sales in when - 2005? 2006? Again, that's yesterday.

And today the Express reckon sales will be up on the High Street compared to last year! (I appreciate their margins may be lower)

I'm panicing too - but I can't for the life of me get my head around why!

sabretoothtigger

The recent low was last seen in the mid nineties I think. I always thought the dow over 10k was overvalued, pity I didnt stick to my guns

The panic is because the banks would have mostly all fallen over by now if it werent for government loans.

Its like a hells angel biker needing stabilisers.
Theres a good chance its still not enough, RBS apparently has 2 trillion of liabilities/assets (mortgages are assets) for example which is as big as the uk annual gdp

Lehmans falling over was 10 times bigger then enron, 6 times bigger then worldcom going under & even if you added together every other massive bankruptcy in the last twenty years Lehmans would still outweigh them all as the largest bankruptcy in history


The sp500 from Nov 1 1996 to Nov 20 2008 has fallen in value.

EdInvestor

This thread should be on the Savings and Investments board.