The 70% club

StevieJ

Quite simply, what has happened over the last 12 months, the banks have lent on the valuers to (lets us find a phrase) use more realistic valuations in addition they have toughened LTV's. This was probably a step change that is not going to be continually repeated, as some people on here assume.

Dithering_Dad

Cannon_Fodder wrote: »

Is it 20% for stock market crash?

Barring a minor miracle, another couple of months will see us hit 20% down from peak for houses.

Admittedly using stats that might not match the regional experiences of some.



The point is, demand was supposed to be there a year ago.

If it was, which some debate, it didn't stop what we are going through now.

It cannot, therefore, be relied upon.

There has to be a time aspect to the calculation. A 20% drop in the stock market in a day or week would be described as a crash. A 20% drop in the stock market over the course of a year would be described as a decline.

It must be the same in the housing market and so I announce that we are in a House Price Decline (HPD)!

mystic_trev

Dithering_Dad wrote: »

It must be the same in the housing market and so I announce that we are in a House Price Decline (HPD)!

I really think you ought to start up a website. www.housepricedecline.com Why should HPC have all the fun?

macaque_2

chucky wrote: »

... to take notice of economic indicators or predictions from somebody who posts on a sub-board of a main forum is crazy.

Your challenge to my ealier post limited itself to criticising my choice of forum for posting. As responses go, it doesn't get any weaker than that.

My earlier post didn't have anything controversial in it. Unemployment is rising (predicted to pass 3 m in 2010), pressures on salaries are widespread especially in the private sector (JCB employees recently took a big pay cut which were followed by layoffs). Tax takes are falling and government borrowing has rocketed. All I did was join up the dots.

Dithering_Dad

mystic_trev wrote: »

I really think you ought to start up a website. www.housepricedecline.com Why should HPC have all the fun?

lol Trev, not a bad idea. It can be the nicer, more cuddly version of HPC. All members to wear cashmere cardigans with leather patches on their elbows while posting.

dopester

StevieJ wrote: »

Don't confuse them with logic, please.

Yes; supply and demand, but no ability to pay.

Very confusing for some it would seem.

I notice more city bloodshed for jobs today.

Your love of HPI has caused all this.* Sucking all the money in to property and bankrupting banks. Expecting ever younger generations to pay for it all and keep you in the life of luxury.

Take a look around - house prices all over the UK are ludicrously over-priced for the prevailing conditions, and more so for the deflationary vortex that opens up as a result of such an unsustainable total credit boom.

*Not you personally - but just a playful scratch from a bear.

dopester

I just caught part of PMQs.

Gordon got caught out and flustered in a response to say "the problem next year is deflation."

Someone immediately said, "what did he say?"

And Gordon corrected himself with, "next year near 0% inflation".

Get ready. It is already here. As we get ever deeper in, it will cause misery to those who love to live on borrowed money or who have high debts.

The debts remain real, whereas values fall.... and fall and fall for house prices.

wintersunshine

dopester wrote: »

Your love of HPI has caused all this.* Sucking all the money in to property and bankrupting banks. Expecting ever younger generations to pay for it all and keep you in the life of luxury.

Take a look around - house prices all over the UK are ludicrously over-priced for the prevailing conditions, and more so for the deflationary vortex that opens up as a result of such an unsustainable total credit boom.

*Not you personally - but just a playful scratch from a bear.

and how are you MSE bears any different? You can't wait to dive in in to get a taste of HPI yourself. Chief bear !!!!!! can't wait to get a house and a BTL:rolleyes:...I don't blame you for that - but why do you take this high moral tone, as if you are all better in some way?

StevieJ

dopester wrote: »

Yes; supply and demand, but no ability to pay.

Very confusing for some it would seem.

I notice more city bloodshed for jobs today.

Your love of HPI has caused all this.* Sucking all the money in to property and bankrupting banks. Expecting ever younger generations to pay for it all and keep you in the life of luxury.

Take a look around - house prices all over the UK are ludicrously over-priced for the prevailing conditions, and more so for the deflationary vortex that opens up as a result of such an unsustainable total credit boom.

*Not you personally - but just a playful scratch from a bear.

Bizzarely it is the young FTB's who have been inflating the market, the oldies have just been living in their houses and going to work or not.

wintersunshine

dopester wrote: »

.... and fall and fall for house prices.

and then they go back up again.....So, as long as you keep your job you have nothing to worry about. Which is no different than if you rent, is it? The truth is that if you lose your job you'll find yourself on the pavement, whether you have a mortgage or rent.