Stock Market forecasts for 2005 - How did they do ?

deemy2004

Barring any large movements during the last few days of the year, this is how the market stands going into the final week.

5600/4814 = +16.3%

So how did the forecasts do FOR 2005 ?

Yahoo - 12th Jan 05

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/moneyweekly/sharesoutlook.html

Keith Loudon of Redmayne Bentley, the stockbroker, said: “The economy looks firm as interest rates are at or close to their peak and inflation stays under control. UK share prices are set to go on growing at a healthy rate in 2005. We are predicting a 7% rise in the Footsie by the end of the year.”


Urquhart Stewart - He is bearish about the UK market, expecting it to end the year pretty much as it began, at about 4860.


Patrick Evershed, manager of the New Star Select Opportunities Fun - Evershed thinks the Footsie could fall to 4,500 by the end of the year

David Schwartz - He expects the Footsie to end the year below 4,500 – a fall of about 7%

Andrew Milligan, head of global strategy at Standard life Investments, said: “We are going to have another year of strong global industrial growth - and that will be good news for UK equities.”

Edward Bonham Carter, chief investment officer of Jupiter Asset Management - Bonham Carter expects the market to climb by between 8% and 10% during 2005.

Hows about me ? Deemy2004 ? -
OILS !

Buy strength ! So buy OIL STOCKS ! Even at $40 the oil majors are raking it in, even at $35 they are raking it in, at $55 and above ! yeh, you get the picture they will be raking it in .... FTSE as a whole I think it will trend higher but volatile next year

P.S. The oil sector is up 25%

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?t=18753&highlight=forecast
.
.
.
.
So what does this suggest - It suggests those that go looking for junctures i.e. reversal of trends are likely to be proved wrong

Any other forecasts made for 2005 ? Post below -

blinko

seems they are good at forcecasting the opposite

One of the gloomiest pundits is the stock market historian David Schwartz. He thinks shares are likely to peak in the spring and then drop back. He expects the Footsie to end the year below 4,500 – a fall of about 7%

He is bearish about the UK market, expecting it to end the year pretty much as it began, at about 4860.

Patrick Evershed, manager of the New Star Select Opportunities Fun - Evershed thinks the Footsie could fall to 4,500 by the end of the year

David Schwartz - He expects the Footsie to end the year below 4,500 – a fall of about 7%

either that or they new it was going to be a good year and wanted everyone to dump so they could pick up cheaper stock .

my prediction for 2006 is that the FTSE will end up over 6000 not a hard one to enviage but inreality the FTSE this year made a late run and hence the reason why it is looking quite health from 4900 at the start hopefully we can see similar growth for this year . especially as i have jumped back into the stockmarket.

al_yrpal

I held Evershed's fund for a while, it went nowhere, so I wouldn't set any store by what he says.

I have no idea how the UK stockmarket will go. At present the world economy is stable, and the emerging countries, oil that provides energy for growing transport and provides the means to power electrical goods, and copper (the essential component of all electrical and electronic goods), are getting scarcer and therefore on a roll.

Pestilence and natural disasters are hard to forecast, and an imminent war isn't presently apparent.

Investors in the UK backwater are missing grand opportunities.

superscotsman

I am certain there will be a something of a bear market in 2006. Whether there are spectacular crashes will depend on when the war with Iran starts. And there will be one.

EdInvestor

I feel quite optimistic.:) Ever since the Market bottomed out with the Baghdad bounce in April 2003 it has been making steady progress, without any signs of overheating.Resilience to nasty events such as terrorist incidents seems pretty strong.Pessimism about the US economy always impacts, but the Fed has indicated it is nearing the top of the interest rate rise cycle, and that inflation is under control.

In the UK a house price crash now looks unlikely and retail spending and growth should start perking up with another interest rate cut in February, inflation haveing been controlled here too. So, seems reasonable to hope for more improvement in 2006.