House price futures - average house at £117k in 2011

kennyboy66_2

I should have added that Spreadfair have Q4 2009 at 136-140k.

This to me feels about right, followed by 2-4 years of stagnation where prices will probably fall one month & rise the next - each months data will be greeted with "we have turned the corner" or "housing doom to continue for 60 years" depending on your perspective.

GDB2222

kennyboy66 wrote: »

You know what, I don't really believe that 3 year futures can be bought at £117k.

This is mainly based on the fact that Spreadfair have a buy price of £135k and sell of £129k for Q4 2011. There have been no trades less than 129.5 in the last 6 months.

This is based on Halifax prices.

I would be very wary of this company - particularly if they are doing "workshops" on property derivatives, now where have we seen that before?

If I could really buy 3 year futures at £117k and the buying costs (commission) were low & it was with a company I had heard of, I would be lumping on.

"Founded in 1985, Tradition Financial Services (TFS) is a market leader in the brokering of financial and non-financial products. With offices worldwide, the Company covers currency options, equity derivatives, freight, precious metals, energy, property derivatives and pulp & paper markets. TFS Energy brokers a full spectrum of OTC energy and energy-related physical and derivative products --including electricity, natural gas, crude oil and refined products, coal, environmental products and weather derivatives-- and exchange-traded futures and options. TFS is a subsidiary of Compagnie Financière Tradition (CFT), one of the world's top three brokers in financial and commodity-related products."

I expect that you haven't heard of them partly because their minimum deal size for these property futures is £5mill.

What made you think they were doing workshops?

I was quoting them because it's a reasonable indication of what the banks are thinking will happen to house prices, as this is a market for banks and similar financial institutions, although there were probably more sellers than buyers at £138k, which was last month's price. I agree that £117k looks quite tempting.

Dan:_4

carolt wrote: »

Covered at boring length many times previously.

Please read previous posts.

No, I have asked you many times but you seem to ignore the question.

ad9898_3

mitchaa wrote: »

Otherwise you may miss the boat again;)

I love these quotes, history tells us that 'the boat' stays in dock for about 4 years before moving off again.:D

Missing it, if you have money in the bank is not possible.

mewbie_2

Yeah, missing the boat is another of those clutching at straws quotes trotted out endlessly. Some people bought and may 'lose' money, mostly HPI imagined gains anyway. Some people didn't and may buy a cheaper house in the future. What's the big deal? Why the need to pretend its one thing or the other?

If I lose money on something I don't need to pretend to everyone I know that it's OK, and persuade them to get in on the deal as well. Likewise if I make money I don't need to brag about it, much better to keep quiet about things like that anyway.

Sorry, typed too much. what I should have said was !!!!!!.

carolt

Dan: wrote: »

No, I have asked you many times but you seem to ignore the question.

No you've never asked me before.

Please bother reading my previous posts - I haven't got time to repeat ad infinitum, and it would bore the pants off all those who've read it many times anyway.

Why do you care so much anyway?

Dan:_4

carolt wrote: »

No you've never asked me before.

Please bother reading my previous posts - I haven't got time to repeat ad infinitum, and it would bore the pants off all those who've read it many times anyway.

Why do you care so much anyway?

Yes I did, but I really can't be bothered to go back over hundreds of posts to find it.

I was only interested as you seem to have missed the last great buying opportunity, I would hate to see it happen again.

amcluesent

Looking forward to buying a good property using cash at hand, rent to quality peeps and have certainty of income for decades with a rising capital gain from 2012. Sweet. Retirement at 50 is within my grasp as home owner and mortgage free.

carolt

Dan: wrote: »

Yes I did, but I really can't be bothered to go back over hundreds of posts to find it.

I was only interested as you seem to have missed the last great buying opportunity, I would hate to see it happen again.

Oh that's so caring.

If you'd like to send me some cash I'll accept it gladly.

Isn't it lovely to know there are these sweet, unselfish, generous posters out there.

It quite restores my faith in you, Dan.