House price futures - average house at £117k in 2011

mitchaa

ess0two wrote: »

Whats an average house.............

3 bed semis can be had for as little as £125k in my area,also 2 bed terrace @ £75k

Hehe...How long is a piece of string:D

Average house in Stoke on Trent will buy you about a 1m squared section of a Fulham flat.

I would personally say a 3bed semi detached house would be classed as that of an average house.

Kez100

The credibility starts and ends with the fact they are up to date and account for 25%, which is actually quite a bit of the market statistically.

My argument is that in times like now even up to date information is out of date. So, LR is virtually useless for forecasting purposes and H and N relatively useless for forecasting purposes - although interesting. All this is purely because everything is so volatile. I'd probably be saying they are a great guide if we were in a stable/slightly falling/slightly rising market.

carolt

mitchaa wrote: »

I still believe as a national average 40% is still cloud cuckoo. That would require some areas to fall a lot harder to maintain that figure as of course not all areas will drop by anywhere near 40%. (The NE of Scotland as an example )

25% and that will be your lot;) I believe the LR figures are currently 'only' showing 8% drops from peak, so a long way to go before we get anywhere near 40%

Nationwide and Halifax figures showing just under 15% from peak but they are a small minority and only make up just over 25% of the mortgage market.

I'll stick to my 25%

Well, as where I live, another 10% off peak prices is over another 30K, that's a lot of taxed income plus interest to pay out - certainly a lot more than my rent!

So even if your limited forecast turns out to be correct, it'd be financially very foolish for me to buy now.

mitchaa

carolt wrote: »

Well, as where I live, another 10% off peak prices is over another 30K, that's a lot of taxed income plus interest to pay out - certainly a lot more than my rent!

So even if your limited forecast turns out to be correct, it'd be financially very foolish for me to buy now.

I agree with you Carol, it's financial suicide buying at the moment in probably all areas of the country.

Wait until it stabilizes, save that further 10% or so and get on when there has been 6mths of continuous stagnation

Otherwise you may miss the boat again;)

carolt

Doubt it - being that bit older than you, I remeber the stagnation last time - and it wasn't 6 months - more like 6 years.


So I'll buy when the time is right - for me.

neverdespairgirl

Gorgeous_George wrote: »

. Hence the need for urgent, but well-thought out, Landlord Licencing.

I think this is important - provided, of course, as you say, that the govt. doesn't make its usual dog's dinner out of the idea.

neverdespairgirl

mitchaa wrote: »

But then why is so much credibility put into the Nationwide figures when they only account for 7% of UK mortgages? Or the Halifax figures when they only account for 20%?

In statistical terms, 27% is a pretty large sample.

Dan:_4

carolt wrote: »

Doubt it - being that bit older than you, I remeber the stagnation last time - and it wasn't 6 months - more like 6 years.


So I'll buy when the time is right - for me.

You frequently mention the 'last' time Carlot and how all your friends were buying back then. Can I ask why you refrained from buying during the last crash?

kennyboy66_2

You know what, I don't really believe that 3 year futures can be bought at £117k.

This is mainly based on the fact that Spreadfair have a buy price of £135k and sell of £129k for Q4 2011. There have been no trades less than 129.5 in the last 6 months.

This is based on Halifax prices.

I would be very wary of this company - particularly if they are doing "workshops" on property derivatives, now where have we seen that before?

If I could really buy 3 year futures at £117k and the buying costs (commission) were low & it was with a company I had heard of, I would be lumping on.

carolt

Dan: wrote: »

You frequently mention the 'last' time Carlot and how all your friends were buying back then. Can I ask why you refrained from buying during the last crash?

Covered at boring length many times previously.

Please read previous posts.