Anglo Irish.....

ed123_2

....any views, share price has dropped 90%, large exposure to property market in UK/Ireland, large cds approx 2500/300 and yet rated A+ per S&P also Finch has a high rating although negative outlook (however in also has Americian Express as negative!)......thanks Ed

gozomark

AI is actually A- with S&P not A+

when you say views, do you mean as a saver with them, or as an investor in either their debt or their equity ?

ed123_2

...I mean as a saver......thanks ed

gozomark

for the next 2 years (or just under), I'd say you are very safe given the Irish guarantee, and the fact Ireland is in the Eurozone

gunnaknow

Yes but if they do fail, you might be stuck earning zero interest whilst everything is sorted out and when you do get the money back there won't be any fixed rates around to invest back into. I have applied for their 9 month fixed rate and I am waiting for the form to arrive. I'm not so sure whether I should invest with them now. I can't make my mind up.

Gwhiz

gunnaknow wrote: »

Yes but if they do fail, you might be stuck earning zero interest whilst everything is sorted out and when you do get the money back there won't be any fixed rates around to invest back into. I have applied for their 9 month fixed rate and I am waiting for the form to arrive. I'm not so sure whether I should invest with them now. I can't make my mind up.

I've just opened a 9 month fix with them. No worries from me!

Arthurian

Have a look at this thread, too:-
http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?t=1267457
I'm still confused - is there any official Irish governemnt website which actually spells out if Uk depositors, ordinarily domiciled in the UK, are covered under the Irish banking guarantee?

eeja

Arthurian wrote: »

Have a look at this thread, too:-
http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?t=1267457
I'm still confused - is there any official Irish governemnt website which actually spells out if Uk depositors, ordinarily domiciled in the UK, are covered under the Irish banking guarantee?

Yes there is a gov website and it's clear ! 100 percent guaranteed by Irish Government .
What is not so clear is the penalty they charge for breaking a one year deposit. With interest rates they pay down 1 1/2% they should not in fact charge depositors for breaking a 7.2% fixed deposit as they gain not lose by not having to pay so much interest to the depositor.
Their terms and conditions do not spell it out but their 'charges & fees 'web page does, yet it is still not completely clear.
Anyone know the exact precise answer on the question of Anglo 's breakage penalty (IOM office)?

gunnaknow

Gwhiz wrote: »

I've just opened a 9 month fix with them. No worries from me!

Gwhiz, what ID did you have to send them with your form and cheque? Was it just something like a recent bank statement or credit card statement, or did they request something else aswel like a passport, drivers license or ID card? Thanks.

edwinac_2

paddytrash wrote: »

I would think the chances of Anglo failing are quite high. If I was giving odds on it I wouldnt give you 7/2..

If Allied Irish or Bank of Ireland failed in a big way, there is no way the Irish government could step in. They are just too big. The best the Irish government could do is provide short term liquidity to the banks, which so far they havent provided - just a massive poker bluff by saying they would guarantee everything, which so far has seemed to work.

Anglo are small fry. If Anglo fails lets just hope they fail before one of the bigger ones.

Collins Stewart agrees that the Irish 100% Depositors' Guarantee is essentially a worthless poker bluff. If the Guarantee was ever called upon to pay out then every man, woman and child in Ireland would have to find an impossibly large €92,000 each.

The FT's Alphaville column paints an equally gloomy future for the Irish banks, of which the Anglo Irish Bank looks particularly precarious.

Citing Collins Stewart Research, Alphaville questions whether a majority nationalisation (bankruptcy reorganisation) of Ireland's three main banks is on the cards.

Alex Potter, analyst at Collins Stewart, writes: "We see Anglo struggling to generate any profit in the coming two years, even assuming it sees materially lower commercial property loan losses than its peers. However, trading at 0.67x recapitalised book value, we believe absolute falls are limited. However, as the most opaque and least profitable of the Irish banks, we would avoid the stock."

Meanwhile, RTE, Ireland's state broadcaster reports that "Ratings agency Standard & Poor's has reviewed downwards its counterparty credit ratings on the four main Irish banks, with negative implications. This is a measure of the banks' ability to pay back their loans.

Standard & Poor's said that it has lowered its long-term counterparty credit ratings on the Anglo Irish Bank and Irish Life and Permanent to A- from A. It has also placed their counterparty credit ratings on CreditWatch.

It said the lowering of its long-term ratings on Anglo and IL&P reflects the backdrop of a deteriorating economic environment, and more specifically, the clear challenges facing these banks business models in their current forms.


S&P said "while banks participating in the guarantee scheme are subject to the same degree of oversight and direction by the regulator, we consider that - of the four independent rated banks - Anglo Irish and ILP are facing the most acute pressures to reshape their businesses in the coming two years."

Keep your eyes peeled this Wednesday when the Bank of Ireland’s first-half results are out.. Anglo-Irish will publish its own fiscal-year results on December 3rd...

eeja

edwinac wrote: »

Collins Stewart agrees that the Irish 100% Depositors' Guarantee is essentially a worthless poker bluff. If the Guarantee was ever called up to pay out then every man, woman and child in Ireland would have to find an impossibly large €92,000 each.

The FT's Alphaville column paints an equally gloomy future for the Irish banks, of which the Anglo Irish Bank looks particularly precarious.

Citing Collins Stewart Research, Alphaville questions whether a majority nationalisation (bankruptcy reorganisation) of Ireland's three main banks is on the cards.

Alex Potter, analyst at Collins Stewart, writes: "We see Anglo struggling to generate any profit in the coming two years, even assuming it sees materially lower commercial property loan losses than its peers. However, trading at 0.67x recapitalised book value, we believe absolute falls are limited. However, as the most opaque and least profitable of the Irish banks, we would avoid the stock."

Meanwhile, RTE, Ireland's state broadcaster reports that "Ratings agency Standard & Poor's has reviewed downwards its counterparty credit ratings on the four main Irish banks, with negative implications. This is a measure of the banks' ability to pay back their loans.

Standard & Poor's said that it has lowered its long-term counterparty credit ratings on the Anglo Irish Bank and Irish Life and Permanent to A- from A. It has also placed their counterparty credit ratings on CreditWatch.

It said the lowering of its long-term ratings on Anglo and IL&P reflects the backdrop of a deteriorating economic environment, and more specifically, the clear challenges facing these banks business models in their current forms.


S&P said "while banks participating in the guarantee scheme are subject to the same degree of oversight and direction by the regulator, we consider that - of the four independent rated banks - Anglo Irish and ILP are facing the most acute pressures to reshape their businesses in the coming two years."

Keep your eyes peeled this Wednesday when the Bank of Ireland’s first-half results are out.. Anglo-Irish will publish its own fiscal-year results on December 3rd...

Of course you are right about Ireland but that would apply to every single country in the world ! If every US depositor claimed under the guarantee that country offers the US would also go bust ( financially only as I concede they can print dollars but the Irish cannot print euro ) Ditto our fiat currencies. I believe Switzerland is the only country in the world that can back up every single banknote/ franc with gold . THE UK PROBABLY COULD NOT BACK UP THE POUND WITH A HAL'PENNY OF GOLD. Especially not since Gordon Brown sold off most of our reserves for around a third of its current value !!