Oops

mewbie_2

My turn to be a smug b*stard. Coughs importantly. Not 1666, 1366 I think you'll find.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stella_Artois

Still can't do the M&W joke, soon though I promise.

Max_Headroom_3

However it was 1665 so I can't.

PasturesNew wrote: »

Five to five.

Five past five surely?

StevieJ

My LIBOR rate is bigger than yours, link from the Times relating to 1981, have look at the Libor rate.

http://archive.timesonline.co.uk/tol/viewArticle.arc?articleId=ARCHIVE-The_Times-1981-03-11-17-005&pageId=ARCHIVE-The_Times-1981-03-11-17

Generali

StevieJ wrote: »

My LIBOR rate is bigger than yours, link from the Times relating to 1981, have look at the Libor rate.

http://archive.timesonline.co.uk/tol/viewArticle.arc?articleId=ARCHIVE-The_Times-1981-03-11-17-005&pageId=ARCHIVE-The_Times-1981-03-11-17

Perhaps I'm missing the point but it looks to me like LIBOR is a few bps higher than the minimum lending rate (base rate) in the graph for most of the time.

LIBOR was high then but so were nominal interest rates and inflation (about 10% in March 1981 but it had been much higher). It's interesting to note that The Times was using the phrase 'worst since the 1930s' even then!

StevieJ

Generali wrote: »

Perhaps I'm missing the point but it looks to me like LIBOR is a few bps higher than the minimum lending rate (base rate) in the graph for most of the time.

LIBOR was high then but so were nominal interest rates and inflation (about 10% in March 1981 but it had been much higher). It's interesting to note that The Times was using the phrase 'worst since the 1930s' even then!

Just checked that out, MLR (base rate) was cut from 14% to 12% on the 11th March 1981 so there wasn't actually much of a difference.
References to the 1930's help to sell newspapers, one thing I have noticed that is very different now from previous recessions is that previuosly the fear of inflation impeded the use of stimulus tools.This is why I think recovery may be quicker the time as everything has been thrown at the problem, in fact the one thing I agree with !!!!!! on, we may be stoking up inflation a couple of years down the road.

Generali

StevieJ wrote: »

Just checked that out, MLR (base rate) was cut from 14% to 12% on the 11th March 1981 so there wasn't actually much of a difference.
References to the 1930's help to sell newspapers, one thing I have noticed that is very different now from previous recessions is that previuosly the fear of inflation impeded the use of stimulus tools.This is why I think recovery may be quicker the time as everything has been thrown at the problem, in fact the one thing I agree with !!!!!! on, we may be stoking up inflation a couple of years down the road.

It's going to be interesting to see how things pan out.

My feeling is that we were 'due' a recession when the dot com bubble burst and that it was avoided by a little bit of luck really. The monetary stimulus that was given to the economy by slashing interest rates should have caused inflation but that was avoided due to the Chinese flooding the West with very cheap consumer goods. Where the added money did show up as inflation was in asset markets, particularly housing.

My feeling is that this time around, monetary stimulus isn't going to work as the mechanism for getting the cheap money into the hands of businesses and consumers has broken down.

That is why I think we'll see deflation unless the Bank of England starts printing money by increasing the amount of money available to the Government with 'steralising' the increase by selling bonds.

At present, the Fed isn't selling bonds as quickly as it should so at present they are printing money (in a Mugabe fashion). It is generally assumed that they will get round to selling the bonds soon. If they don't then they will quickly discover that bond vigilantes aren't dead, they're just resting!

sabretoothtigger

The 81 graph shows the libor dropping below the boe rate.

Considering its a 3 month rate and further drops were anticipated not unlike now, I guess that makes sense and puts the recent drop (still far above boe rate) into perspective also

ad9898_3

Generali wrote: »

It's going to be interesting to see how things pan out.

My feeling is that we were 'due' a recession when the dot com bubble burst and that it was avoided by a little bit of luck really. The monetary stimulus that was given to the economy by slashing interest rates should have caused inflation but that was avoided due to the Chinese flooding the West with very cheap consumer goods. Where the added money did show up as inflation was in asset markets, particularly housing.

My feeling is that this time around, monetary stimulus isn't going to work as the mechanism for getting the cheap money into the hands of businesses and consumers has broken down.

That is why I think we'll see deflation unless the Bank of England starts printing money by increasing the amount of money available to the Government with 'steralising' the increase by selling bonds.

At present, the Fed isn't selling bonds as quickly as it should so at present they are printing money (in a Mugabe fashion). It is generally assumed that they will get round to selling the bonds soon. If they don't then they will quickly discover that bond vigilantes aren't dead, they're just resting!

Great post Generali, the first part is absolutely spot on.

Plasticman

Jonbvn wrote: »

Didn't the Frogs start making Stella Artois in 1666, or is that just a marketing ploy? Mind you, I doubt that French beer was too popular in the UK at that time.

I think that you're mixing up your Stella 1366 with your Kronenberg 1664.

Also worth saying that Jamaica was captured by the English in 1655 <invitation to Mewbie to make bade joke>

mewbie_2

Plasticman wrote: »

Also worth saying that Jamaica was captured by the English in 1655 <invitation to Mewbie to make bade joke>

Ahhh, thank goodness we can get this over with.

Wise: Jamaica was captured by the English in 1655
Morecambe: Yes, and they lost it again at ten past five!!
Audience: Hysterical laughter.

ps. You don't know how carefully I checked my 24 hour clock knowledge on that one. After the jpeg incident I have no desire to be caught out by PN yet again.