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Debate House Prices


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The MSE House Price Forum Bull Trap?

I have noticed a strengthening of 'bullish' attitudes on the site in the last week.

Is it that some bearish-types, feeling they have 'been proved right at long last' and not feeling the need to bang on incessantly, are off enjoying plotting & planning to take advantage of new market conditions?

Thereby 'weakening' their group numbers...

So the more bullish members are enjoying a period of ascendency, that they haven't had for 6-12 months.

And they are so happy at the shift, they are getting a teeny bit carried away and more forceful than strictly necessary in making their points. (One or two, realy persistent types banging on incessantly that you must answer all their points, even if they make 12 in one paragraph spring to mind...!)


So, will it last or is it the bull trap before the really big drop that allows the bearish types to reassert themselves?

;)
«1345678

Comments

  • boyse7en
    boyse7en Posts: 883 Forumite
    So your saying bulls are badgering the bears?

    1. Is that true
    2. Can you provide a link to prove it?
    3. Not good enough!, Can you get a graph?
    4. I demand you answer all these points. Failure to do so will mean the collapse of the Western world.
  • Really2
    Really2 Posts: 12,397 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    I have noticed a strengthening of 'bullish' attitudes on the site in the last week.

    Is it that some bearish-types, feeling they have 'been proved right at long last' and not feeling the need to bang on incessantly, are off enjoying plotting & planning to take advantage of new market conditions?

    Thereby 'weakening' their group numbers...

    So the more bullish members are enjoying a period of ascendency, that they haven't had for 6-12 months.

    And they are so happy at the shift, they are getting a teeny bit carried away and more forceful than strictly necessary in making their points. (One or two, realy persistent types banging on incessantly that you must answer all their points, even if they make 12 in one paragraph spring to mind...!)


    So, will it last or is it the bull trap before the really big drop that allows the bearish types to reassert themselves?

    ;)

    I think most of us "bulls" have better things to do than label ourselves.

    But if wanting people not to lose their homes, not to lose their jobs pensions etc makes me a "bull" so be it.:rolleyes:
    It is indesputable interest rates needed to be cut in a recession. I am amazed the the people who had "forseen" the crash can not now understand rate cuts.
    Financial geniuses they are not.

    PS are you !!!!!!'s mom! It is rude to answer a question with another question you should have taught him that.:rotfl:

    PS Sorry gen you may not thank the edit
  • I've alwasy though "bull-trap" when applied to the housing market is a bit of "clap-trap"

    If I was a FTB I would still be waiting and saving, put would certainly be looking at properties next summer by when the market should be down at least 25% peak to trough - of course they may go lower still but at least most of the risk is out of the way.



    You can never time the bottom of any market perfectly.
    US housing: it's not a bubble

    Moneyweek, December 2005
  • Conrad
    Conrad Posts: 33,137 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    Am I a bull?

    In my own mind I'm bearish, even though I'm buying a property. I'm only buying because I feel it's a fairly exceptional opportunity, thats not to sya I think others should buy
  • Really2
    Really2 Posts: 12,397 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    kennyboy66 wrote: »


    You can never time the bottom of any market perfectly.

    True it take 3 months for a sale to go through.

    I think the latest events has seperated some of the "bears" as they can now see how petty and the single mindedness of some wanting a housing crash no matter the cost.
    Their will be a human cost to the crash any one who gloats, revels or simply want people to default so they can buy a cheap house are sad individuals.
    I have never once said "oh great my house is worth £X great!" (I have a child and he will need to buy one day) and if you have been unfortunate to meet people like that I am sorry but two wrongs dont make a right.
  • abaxas
    abaxas Posts: 4,141 Forumite
    We could argue all day about 'bull traps', HPI, HPC etc but in reality we know the answer.

    The mortgage backed securities market was 625 Billion pre crunch, now it's next to 0. IE about 50% of the avalilable funds for mortgages/secured loans has simply dissapeared.

    This doesnt mean property will increase or decrease in value in value, or that less or more people will buy.

    It means, in the short/medium term, we have to accept there is insufficient money in the mortgage system to provide everyone with a re/new mortgages. We can only speculate on what this will do to the property market. Currently it is manifesting itself as both reduced sales and lower prices.

    The question I would like answering is the ratio of forced sales to normal market condition sales. This will ultimatly define the market.
  • PasturesNew
    PasturesNew Posts: 70,698 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Photogenic
    I see it as a bull trap. There's one in every cycle. I think we're in it.

    I am unable to buy no matter what's happening as I'd need to see more of a trend because I don't have a job nor even a town I know I want/need to be in. Without a location or a job you can't buy.
  • chucky
    chucky Posts: 15,170 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    I have noticed a strengthening of 'bullish' attitudes on the site in the last week.

    Is it that some bearish-types, feeling they have 'been proved right at long last' and not feeling the need to bang on incessantly, are off enjoying plotting & planning to take advantage of new market conditions?

    Thereby 'weakening' their group numbers...

    So the more bullish members are enjoying a period of ascendency, that they haven't had for 6-12 months.

    And they are so happy at the shift, they are getting a teeny bit carried away and more forceful than strictly necessary in making their points. (One or two, realy persistent types banging on incessantly that you must answer all their points, even if they make 12 in one paragraph spring to mind...!)


    So, will it last or is it the bull trap before the really big drop that allows the bearish types to reassert themselves?

    ;)

    i'm sensing that CF is setting up a few people with this thread... :)
  • mewbie_2
    mewbie_2 Posts: 6,058 Forumite
    1,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    Really2 wrote: »
    two wrongs dont make a right.
    Neither do two aliases.
  • fatpig_2
    fatpig_2 Posts: 631 Forumite
    chucky and a few of the other slum landlords will be back down the soup kitchen soon enough, don't you worry about that!
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