If a house was 182k in 2003.....

domcastro

OK - saw a nice house that went on market beginning of September but it was 240k. This was overpriced anyway because they bought it for 203k in 2005 and the people before bought it for 182k in 2003. It has been reduced today to 220k

I could buy now but am choosing to wait a few months (though 3 houses (out of 15) on my saved list are Sold STC. I don't want to wait ages because renting is costing me 200 pound per month more than my mortgage would be (and this place is a sh*thole but it allows dogs)

I openly admit I've been brainwashed to the houseprices - but the sensible side of me is saying the house is worth no more than 150k in good old day prices (or maybe 2001/2002)

Shall I continue my short wait and risk it going STC?

besonders1

I'm in a similar position.... but lets face it is not the last house in the world others may turn up that are better and probably cheaper if you wait. It may be sold STC but that means nothing, how do you know that the buyer actually has the mortgage approved?, I know several friends who have offered only to be turned down by their bank. Many EAs often rush things through to make themselves look good. If you are temped to buy now then make a cheeky offer (over the phone or through the estate agent, not to their face!) and stand your ground or walk away. I have just seen 3 huge reductions in my area and trying my best to resist but they are still over priced compared to 2002/3 so its a no no.

scousethife

The way I look at is this.

Its like a game of cards, you have your hand, and you know whats in it and you can bet ONLY on that information.

You dont know what other players have (what the future holds) and you cant do anything about that in any way shape or form.

So either bet or throw your cards in and leave the table

hethmar

Have you made any offers at all?

dealornodeal_3

I would put in a cheeky offer 30/40% off 2007 prices

domcastro

hethmar wrote: »

Have you made any offers at all?

I STRed in August when I relocated. I've been looking but since then I thought I'd lost my savings, the banks went bust, talks of a recession and a HPC. No, no offers - I've been waiting for houses on my saved list to fall. That was one of them. I reckon there's another 20k drop to go and then I'd go for 175 (in an ideal world) and work my way up. I've driven by it though.

People say 30 - 40 % of peak prices but I don't know what year that would take us. For example does a 14% drop we've had already since August 2007 take us back to mid 2005?

hethmar

You can try the nationwide site which has a little calculator you can use though obviously it can only give a rough idea of values.

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/calculator.asp

I did this one for you?

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]A property located in Outer South East which was valued at £182000 in Q2 of 2003, would be worth approximately £217456 in Q3 of 2008. [/FONT][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]This is equivalent to a change of 19.48

or

[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]A property located in Outer South East which was valued at £203000 in Q2 of 2005, would be worth approximately £210290 in Q3 of 2008. [/FONT][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]This is equivalent to a change of 3.59%[/FONT]


[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]or [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]A property located in Outer South East which was valued at £182000 in Q2 of 2003, would be worth approximately £148940 in Q2 of 2002. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]This is equivalent to a change of -18.16%.[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Hmm, not an exact science is it
[/FONT]

rizla01

But you make no mention AT ALL of what the condition was when originally sold and what the condition of it is now.

New Bath, kitchen, Conservatory, Room in the roof, Etc ETc. could easily bump value up by 30-40k

domcastro

rizla01 wrote: »

But you make no mention AT ALL of what the condition was when originally sold and what the condition of it is now.

New Bath, kitchen, Conservatory, Room in the roof, Etc ETc. could easily bump value up by 30-40k

Wouldn't know this information unfortunately

hethmar

Yes, you have to allow that each owner would have surely added to the value by additions?

huntersc

hethmar wrote: »

Yes, you have to allow that each owner would have surely added to the value by additions?

Or that no matter what has been done to a house it's older and unless it's a classic car where only a few exist the older things get the cheaper become because they degrade...



I can only speak for myself, I am looking to buy and if a house was sold for £250k in 2005 I would not pay a penny over £249k right now. Even then I would be wary. The market could stabalise tomorrow but a friend of mine who's an estate agent made a very valid point, houses decrease in value by the tens of thousands but increase in the thousands.

Many are happy to wait longer especially as interest rates are predicted to drop a lot next year, that makes a massive difference if you need a mortgage.