stock market for the new year ?

blinko

stock market for the new year ? what do you think will happen will it be like 05 year when the bull market kept on going or will the consumer down turn finally kick in and slow down the UK stockmarket ? maybe oil prices will go down and or may be they will go up if iran is attacked etc ??

just wondering what your thoughts are on the 2006 stock market out look

deemy2004

My guess is that it will rally early in the year maybe to 5700-5800, then down into August to October to probably below 5400, then up into the end of the year to ? 5500 to 5600 so my guess is its going to end flat either a small gain or a small loss. +/- 2%

eventhough theres talk about rate cuts, they probably won't be on the agenda until the latter half of 2006 and hence the catalyst for the rally

whiteflag_3

deemy2004 wrote:

My guess is that it will rally early in the year maybe to 5700-5800, then down into August to October to probably below 5400, then up into the end of the year to ? 5500 to 5600 so my guess is its going to end flat either a small gain or a small loss. +/- 2%

/QUOTE]

Deemy- on what are you basing your predictions ? what will cause the market to rally early in the year? Are they guesses or do you know something we dont?

deemy2004

deemy2004 wrote:

Deemy- on what are you basing your predictions ? what will cause the market to rally early in the year? Are they guesses or do you know something we dont?

You should try to read the post before replying

I did say GUESS TWICE !!!!

And NO - No one can predict the future !

But you CAN take an educated guess which was posted in the spirit of the OP's request.

Yeh my guess is for 5700 to 5800 probably by mid march. so far it seems to be on track for that GUESS !

So stay long until theirs a sell signal.

Before you ask whats a sell signal ?

Well for me it would be a sustained fall through the 50 SMA on the FTSE, coming off a high MACD reading with negative divergence on the MACD histogram and similar sells on other indicies as confirmation, which initially would target a 100% move from the high to the 50 SMA break i.e. your half way to the next sell signal which would be a break of the t-line from the 2003 LOW, which has contained downtrends on 3 prior occasions (including oct 05) and implies that the fourth attack will break it, though offcourse it needs to occur for that second sell signal i.e. no pre-emptive action.

Twopints

deemy2004 wrote:

Well for me it would be a sustained fall through the 50 SMA on the FTSE, coming off a high MACD reading with negative divergence on the MACD histogram and similar sells on other indicies as confirmation, which initially would target a 100% move from the high to the 50 SMA break i.e. your half way to the next sell signal which would be a break of the t-line from the 2003 LOW, which has contained downtrends on 3 prior occasions (including oct 05) and implies that the fourth attack will break it, though offcourse it needs to occur for that second sell signal i.e. no pre-emptive action.

Is that a guess, then ?

deemy2004

Twopints wrote:

Is that a guess, then ?

No their signals to act upon, mechanically.... don't know when and at what price they will occur until they occur, do you understand the difference ?

whiteflag_3

deemy2004 wrote:

You should try to read the post before replying

I did say GUESS TWICE !!!!

And NO - No one can predict the future !

But you CAN take an educated guess which was posted in the spirit of the OP's request.

Yeh my guess is for 5700 to 5800 probably by mid march. so far it seems to be on track for that GUESS !

So stay long until theirs a sell signal.

Before you ask whats a sell signal ?

Well for me it would be a sustained fall through the 50 SMA on the FTSE, coming off a high MACD reading with negative divergence on the MACD histogram and similar sells on other indicies as confirmation, which initially would target a 100% move from the high to the 50 SMA break i.e. your half way to the next sell signal which would be a break of the t-line from the 2003 LOW, which has contained downtrends on 3 prior occasions (including oct 05) and implies that the fourth attack will break it, though offcourse it needs to occur for that second sell signal i.e. no pre-emptive action.

You should try and answer the question when replying!

I take it from your reply you dont know anything we dont, and therefore I wont act on your "guesses". Cash for me next year! :xmassign:

deemy2004

whiteflag wrote:

You should try and answer the question when replying!

I take it from your reply you dont know anything we dont, and therefore I wont act on your "guesses". Cash for me next year! :xmassign:

Well that depends on what you know since I'm not a mind reader, I can't go through all the variables involved from the rising trend line channel along which the market is moving to declining inflationary pressures that imply lower interest rates, to the impact of being in the 2nd year of the presidential cycle which is usually bearish for the stock market etc.

So I can't know what you know to say what it is that I know that you don't know, other than that I have no crystal ball

al_yrpal

Having consulted my tealeaves, and looked at the seaweed, I have got a feeling that.... I haven't got a clue!

mattbass

Havent got a clue what Deemy is on about but am gonna have to thank him for it anyway. :snow_laug

innovate

Three or so comments from Doomy (sorry - Deemy) on this subject and no mention of bird flu or natural disasters like Yellowstone Park eruption? :j :j :j :j

Feels like a really good year coming, yepeeh!