House price crash on hold again

Woby_Tide

Apparently one of the biggest bears out there Capital Economics are revising their 20% drop prediction this week according to weekends papers

Consumer spending and housing market prospects are also an uncertainty for the Bank. This week Capital Economics, one of the most bearish forecasters, is expected to drop its prediction of a 20% crash in house prices. Ideaglobal.com, the financial research consultancy, expects a 4% rise for next year.

Some other article in same paper had an assortment of predictions from various thinktanks/companies.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2097-1937031,00.html

Strangely RICS normally one of more reserved predictors was one of the most bullish(though with all figures ranging from -4 to +5% bullish isn't exactly the word)

GingeG

Strangely

Deemy and meanmachine are very quiet!!

tomstickland

I'm very much in the wait and hope it drops camp, so this is bad news for me.

NEWBIE_SHOPPAHOLIC

Yes Ginge, I wholeheartedly agree, weren't we all supposed to be idiots for buying property, according to the aforementioned in your reply!!!!!

meanmachine_2

OK, this is my last post on here. Fun while it lasted, but I have now got rather bored of the same arguments going round and round, punctuated by endless newbies coming on asking about "self certs" and "how can I borrow 12 times my income? etc". So to summarise:

1) I'm no longer looking to buy, having made a substantial investment elsewhere. Therefore I'm really not bothered one way or the other for the next few years.

2) Capital Economics predicted a 20% correction over 3 years, afaik. They're now predicting a 5% drop over 2 years. Since they have so far proved wrong, why should any revision upwards or downwards cause so much excitement?

3) The OECD have independently looked at property in the UK and concluded that it's 33% overvalued. That sounds about right to me. However, I'd say most Brits are a least 30% overly obsessed with property, so that's why prices are high.

4) Unless there is a sudden shock to the economy, prices will stay where they are or go up broadly in line with affordability levels. If IRs are cut, then prices will adjust upwards accordingly. If IRs go down below 4%, then there will be another rush into property. That's the aim of such a move - to encourage people to buy goods, equities and assets, in order to stop us sliding into a recession.

5) If you need a roof over your heads, are confident about your employment situation and can afford the repayments now and in the future, should IRs rise, then why exactly are you an "idiot" for buying? Stop projecting your own worries and insecurities onto others.

6) You've all got your own brains. You're all responsible for your own actions. For me personally it's far cheaper to rent than to buy, so that's why I'm renting. But I'm lucky. For me personally, my situation allows me to save, giving me the cash to buy a place outright within the next 10-15 years, thereby saving me having to borrow from a bank. Most people don't have that luxury and will have to pay interest on their borrowings.

I'm happy to be neither a borrower or a lender. If others want to buy property, despite it being "33% overvalued", then that's their lookout.

That's it then. I'm off. I have no further interest in property for the time being, so I'm not posting. why the rest of you continue to post when you claim not to have a vested interest I'm not really sure, but again that's for you to argue endlessly amongst yourselves.

Good night!

kinster_2

c-ya and I don't wanna be ya - poor

Joe_Bloggs

I would like to thank meanmachine for numerous, stimulating contributions to this site. To a great extent the supply side of homes dried up. Demand for homes was not satisfied and prices rose. There are many new homes almost built around where I live. There is almost zero activity in finishing them off.
My guess is developers will sit on land and almost build properties until the market is right for them to be sold. They are probably overpriced and would not shift anyway in todays market conditions. Time will tell and the market place will decide the prices.
J_B.

distilled

Guess away! We've had the busiest December for as long as I've been selling new homes...which is a long time.

tomstickland

January last year?

distilled

20 years actually, not that its any of your business!

nmiah786

distilled wrote:

I want all customers to be happy! I'm Sales Director for a major housebuilder but my views may not always match those of the people who pay my inflated and quite obscene salary!

Just noticed your change in sigature! VEry humorous and ever so true :snow_laug

How can I get some of what your having :snow_grin