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Scary conspiracy theories and paranoia about hyperinflation abounds
Comments
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I hope you don't mean Willy Wombat there, he seems likeable sort of guy, just a bit keen.
No, I meant the people who invent /publish the conspiracy theories and other rubbish, that can affect young or gullible minds. There is far worse stuff out there than is ever seen on this forum.No-one would remember the Good Samaritan if he'd only had good intentions. He had money as well.
The problem with socialism is that eventually you run out of other people's money.
Margaret Thatcher0 -
And one from Bloomberg:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aloQWaKlGBNE
The perception that banking and other bail-outs are being funded largely by 'printing money' is probably fallacious. In reality, under normal circumstances, banks are in effect printing money all the time. We no longer operate to a gold standard or anything similar and the supply of money (however measured) is a fluid entity. The injection of government initiated liquidity is to a large extent offsetting the shortfall of liquidity on the part of the banks themselves and is not necessarily in itself inflationary. In any event should governments conclude sometime down the road that overall liquidity has increased too much vis a vis inflation than, other things being equal, they can rein some of it back in. At the moment the banks are not exactly falling over themselves and each other to push the new found liquidity back into the markets by way of loans to individuals and businesses.
In addition the money supply theory of inflation is arguably too simplistic in today's world. In micro-economic terms no price goes up unless someone makes a deliberate decision to put it up. That decision can be taken for one of many reasons, but will normally be based on the presumption that the revenue stream and/or profit margin from sale of the goods and services involved will be increased because of the price increase. At a time when consumer confidence is low and demand is falling it will be more difficult for suppliers to feel confident in making those potentially inflationary price increases. Also as yet we have not seen much in the way of potentially inflationary wage claims from organised labour. The threat of extensive job losses is usually sufficient to keep these at bay.
It is difficult to envisage a scenario in the foreseeable future whereby high or even hyper inflation can sit alongside recession. If the recessionary threat is real, then inflation will surely be modest. Even if recession turns out to be no more than low or zero growth then the general loss of confidence caused by recent events will surely keep inflation within tolerable bounds for some time to come.No-one would remember the Good Samaritan if he'd only had good intentions. He had money as well.
The problem with socialism is that eventually you run out of other people's money.
Margaret Thatcher0 -
Unfortunately most of these sites/blogs are often based on Fallacious (love that word:T ) arguments, also they are usually written by Americans with the usual Americentric view of the world.
It often appears that these things are only occurring in the U.S. and it's all one big conspiracy by J.P. Morgan and the Federal Reserve (which is privately owned :rotfl: of course as they always have to remind us)
The big argument peddled is that the USD will become worthless !!!
Worthless compared to what ????
The Euro ? :rotfl: I doubt it, Euroland has even bigger problems than the U.S. ...... JPY ? :rotfl: :rotfl: .......or GBP ??? :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: do me a favour !!!!!
There WILL be Inflation...there HAS to be. The Governments around the world need to increase borrowing substantially to pay for the Bank bailouts, and to pull us out of the recession we are already in........Governments need to Inflate some of that debt away....but that borrowing is for 30 plus years...so it is containable.
These sites/blogs are written by angry men with an agenda to push, never doubt that.
They like to confuse monetary inflation and price inflation in order to back up their agendas.
Reorganise the Federal Reserve Banking System ?? ...... a good idea
Return to the Gold Standard or something similar ?? ...... another good idea
If they stuck to those ideas, and didn't stray into far more extreme political areas they might find their message is more readily accepted by mainstream opinion.'In nature, there are neither rewards nor punishments - there are Consequences.'0 -
My comment was a general one, written before I saw your post naming names, as we have already discussed elsewhere, I like Jim Rogers and would not regard him as a crackpot, some background on Jim Rogers might help solidify that, in 1970 ish Jim Rogers and George Soros founded the Quantum fund which reportedly gained over 3000% during the next 10 years while the S&P500 gained about 50% a track record like that over that time frame does not suggest a crackpot, well maybe a crackpot who understands the markets anyway.Jim Rogers has a long catalogue of sucessful predictions (often completely against the tide) and he is extremely wealthy as a result. There is of course no guarantee he is right this time but he is not just a crackpot nutter.
I always give consideration to his market comments. Although in the interests of balance Rogers appeared on Bloomberg in January and urged investors to buy commodities, particularly agriculturals in advance of the impending recession, that may prove to be a good call in time, and indeed I will take positions in commodities myself in due course, but to a trader it sure doesn't look like one of his best calls right now. Like many Rogers refused to accept that the high oil and other commodity prices were artificially driven by speculators, something the FED and treasury were perhaps later to prove much to, I'm sure, Rogers' displeasure.
The general statement however stands, there are far more crackpots predicting the end of everything and anything than informed commentators.
As I said above, I believe the actions of the US and other countries will be inflationary down the road and we will have a sustained period of strong inflation, assuming of course they manage to achieve what they are trying to do now.
I do concur with Rogers that the dollar will face significant challenges in the future and I believe the current rally presents a selling opportunity, but I have not yet looked at a timing strategy.Hope for the best.....Plan for the worst!
"Never in the history of the world has there been a situation so bad that the government can't make it worse." Unknown0 -
Reaper,
What do you think happens to money supply when interest rates are cut....0 -
Unfortunately most of these sites/blogs are often based on Fallacious (love that word:T ) arguments, also they are usually written by Americans with the usual Americentric view of the world.
It often appears that these things are only occurring in the U.S. and it's all one big conspiracy by J.P. Morgan and the Federal Reserve (which is privately owned :rotfl: of course as they always have to remind us)
The big argument peddled is that the USD will become worthless !!!
Worthless compared to what ????
The Euro ? :rotfl: I doubt it, Euroland has even bigger problems than the U.S. ...... JPY ? :rotfl: :rotfl: .......or GBP ??? :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: do me a favour !!!!!
There WILL be Inflation...there HAS to be. The Governments around the world need to increase borrowing substantially to pay for the Bank bailouts, and to pull us out of the recession we are already in........Governments need to Inflate some of that debt away....but that borrowing is for 30 plus years...so it is containable.
These sites/blogs are written by angry men with an agenda to push, never doubt that.
They like to confuse monetary inflation and price inflation in order to back up their agendas.
Reorganise the Federal Reserve Banking System ?? ...... a good idea
Return to the Gold Standard or something similar ?? ...... another good idea
If they stuck to those ideas, and didn't stray into far more extreme political areas they might find their message is more readily accepted by mainstream opinion.
There was actually a half hour program about the future of the dollar on Radio 4 at 830PM today. You may still be able to hear it on the BBC website.
The long term decline of the dollar is inevitable and the new dominant reserve currency will eventually be the Chinese currency but we are maybe 10 years away from that but there is a gradual continual trend towards Chinese currency. The Euro isnt a contender. Some countries are already ditching the dollar for example Kuwait no longer price oil to the dollar.
The US has a balancing act. If it keeps the dollar strong it can keep countries using it as reserve currency allowing the US to borrow a lot. But if it weakens the dollar it can create US jobs and boost exports.0 -
My comment was a general one, written before I saw your post naming names, as we have already discussed elsewhere, I like Jim Rogers and would not regard him as a crackpot, some background on Jim Rogers might help solidify that, in 1970 ish Jim Rogers and George Soros founded the Quantum fund which reportedly gained over 3000% during the next 10 years while the S&P500 gained about 50% a track record like that over that time frame does not suggest a crackpot, well maybe a crackpot who understands the markets anyway.
I always give consideration to his market comments. Although in the interests of balance Rogers appeared on Bloomberg in January and urged investors to buy commodities, particularly agriculturals in advance of the impending recession, that may prove to be a good call in time, and indeed I will take positions in commodities myself in due course, but to a trader it sure doesn't look like one of his best calls right now. Like many Rogers refused to accept that the high oil and other commodity prices were artificially driven by speculators, something the FED and treasury were perhaps later to prove much to, I'm sure, Rogers' displeasure.
The general statement however stands, there are far more crackpots predicting the end of everything and anything than informed commentators.
As I said above, I believe the actions of the US and other countries will be inflationary down the road and we will have a sustained period of strong inflation, assuming of course they manage to achieve what they are trying to do now.
I do concur with Rogers that the dollar will face significant challenges in the future and I believe the current rally presents a selling opportunity, but I have not yet looked at a timing strategy.
Rogers always says he is terrible at timing. He says he is sure that commodities will be far higher in say, 10 years time but there will be severe dips along the way.
http://jimrogers-investments.blogspot.com/0 -
My comment was a general one, written before I saw your post naming names, as we have already discussed elsewhere, I like Jim Rogers and would not regard him as a crackpot, some background on Jim Rogers might help solidify that, in 1970 ish Jim Rogers and George Soros founded the Quantum fund which reportedly gained over 3000% during the next 10 years while the S&P500 gained about 50% a track record like that over that time frame does not suggest a crackpot, well maybe a crackpot who understands the markets anyway.
I always give consideration to his market comments. Although in the interests of balance Rogers appeared on Bloomberg in January and urged investors to buy commodities, particularly agriculturals in advance of the impending recession, that may prove to be a good call in time, and indeed I will take positions in commodities myself in due course, but to a trader it sure doesn't look like one of his best calls right now. Like many Rogers refused to accept that the high oil and other commodity prices were artificially driven by speculators, something the FED and treasury were perhaps later to prove much to, I'm sure, Rogers' displeasure.
The general statement however stands, there are far more crackpots predicting the end of everything and anything than informed commentators.
As I said above, I believe the actions of the US and other countries will be inflationary down the road and we will have a sustained period of strong inflation, assuming of course they manage to achieve what they are trying to do now.
I do concur with Rogers that the dollar will face significant challenges in the future and I believe the current rally presents a selling opportunity, but I have not yet looked at a timing strategy.
Two points:
What do you consider 'strong inflation'?
I think that Rogers should have been referring to now as just pre/startof recession, and I agree that Commodities or companies eg Rio or Shell is a good idea, as you will be buying on a long-term above inflation price growth trend at a bargain price.'Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers visible or invisible giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the worlds wealthiest and most prosperous people' Margaret Thatcher0 -
Lol that is true, but for a man with bad timing he does ok, for an investor timing is not the be all. I'm sure he's right on commodities, my timing is different, but then I don't stay the course like him. I will begin scaling into commodities quite soon, in fact on oil I already have, even though there is still possible downside.Rogers always says he is terrible at timing. He says he is sure that commodities will be far higher in say, 10 years time but there will be severe dips along the way.
http://jimrogers-investments.blogspot.com/Hope for the best.....Plan for the worst!
"Never in the history of the world has there been a situation so bad that the government can't make it worse." Unknown0 -
Lol that is true, but for a man with bad timing he does ok, for an investor timing is not the be all. I'm sure he's right on commodities, my timing is different, but then I don't stay the course like him. I will begin scaling into commodities quite soon, in fact on oil I already have, even though there is still possible downside.
Well his motto is "Buy low and sell high" but he is the first to admit that he doesnt always get it right but he trys to buy after falls rather than rises.0
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