Tempted to buy some shares?

HankMcSpank

jebervic wrote: »

Never ever going to reach that level !!!

If there'd been the internet in 1973, I'm sure someone would have posted the same...but 73% it did indeed fall!

I'm not saying it will this time, I am just opening others minds to the possibility that it did & therefore can again (especially because many think this downturn will be worse).

Investors have been trained to buy the dips for the past 15 years & have been rewarded handsomely each time...one day the dip will just be a breather before another dip....& so on.....before you know it you're 73% down.

Personally, I think we'll easily see the FTSE under 3,000 before too long (ie the next 4-6 months)...if for no other reason than there hasn't been an 'abandon all hope' phase yet (& there *will* be one of those!)

jebervic

HankMcSpank wrote: »

If there'd been the internet in 1973, I'm sure someone would have posted the same...but 73% it did indeed fall!

I'm not saying it will this time, I am just opening others minds to the possibility that it did & therefore can again (especially because many think this downturn will be worse).

Investors have been trained to buy the dips for the past 15 years & have been rewarded handsomely each time...one day the dip will just be a breather before another dip....& so on.....before you know it you're 73% down.

Personally, I think we'll easily see the FTSE under 3,000 before too long (ie the next 4-6 months)...if for no other reason than there hasn't been an 'abandon all hope' phase yet (& there *will* be one of those!)

Hank

From a purely selfish point of view, I would love to see the ftse below 3000 and i'll be in there buying shares in the companies shown above.

I still can't see it though

sabretoothtigger

The lower it goes the more damage has been done and it'll take longer to recover back to 6k

this downturn is widely predicted to be much worse

I dont really believe that, it could be worse if the problems were ignored or misdiagnosed and made worse even.
If they can find a way to correctly (over) estimate the bad debt ('banks should take more funds then needed') or isolate it in the case of ubs then it should see a levelling out and recovery imo.

Its a case of whether you think the economy was ever really doing well or was it all fake profits from selling houses.
I dont think it was all fake, if they can stop the damage to normal honest industry it should be no where near as bad as the 70's or the markets would allready reflect that much more, because 4k is really not that bad like you say. To all those who think this is a bottom, it isnt solid at all imo

iamesbo

egor110 wrote: »

I intend to invest long term (10 years+) so quite like the idea of the high yield type account where you just bank or reinvest the dividend each year, instead of checking out the markets and trying to sell at max profit but like i said i'd be willing to risk a couple of hundred on the smaller oil companies or banks and see how it pans out.

But a lot of the bust banks won't be paying a divided untill the gov has got it's money
back. Still could be worth waiting for, it might come just in time to pay your funeral costs :rotfl:

Blah99

StevieJ wrote: »

I am fan of the oil majors, eg Shell based on the share price yesterday was paying a dividend yield of nearly 8% (tax free to a basic rate taxpayer) as far as I am aware Shell has never cut its dividend (doesn't mean it won't). The long term oil price is likely to trend up (probably oversold at the moment). Add to this the falling interest rates, Ithink it is a good buy IMHO.

You have to be extremely careful about this. The upwards trend in oil was caused because of the global boom from countries like China. This boom has now faltered significantly precisely because of the "global credit crunch" (oh how I hate that term), which is a major cause of the recent drop in oil prices. The fall in oil prices spells bad news for middle east countries, and in turn for foreign companies operating there.

Goldman Sachs was forecasting $115 for the 2008 year-end price for light sweet crude, but dropped this a week or so ago to $70 (it's currently $78/barrel). GS also dropped its forecast for 2009 from $123 to $86.

There's an emergency Opec meeting soon, where no doubt they'll all rub their hands in glee as they cut production to send it back over $100, but oil is not the sure bet many people think it is (mostly based on recent price rises)....

sabretoothtigger

China and India will still grow credit or not

Zebra

HankMcSpank wrote: »

"The predecessor to the FTSE 100 index, the FT-30 share index, sank from a peak of 543 points in 1972 to a low of 146 points in 1975, a level not far off that when war broke out in 1939.

Out of interest what was the value 10 years later, in 1982?

Jake'sGran

egor110 wrote: »

I intend to invest long term (10 years+) so quite like the idea of the high yield type account where you just bank or reinvest the dividend each year, instead of checking out the markets and trying to sell at max profit but like i said i'd be willing to risk a couple of hundred on the smaller oil companies or banks and see how it pans out.

I bought Lloyds TSB earlier this year just for the dividend and now there won't be one at least for one year:rolleyes:

I do fancy buying a few shares though such as Rexam, Tullow Oil, HSBC.
There is a good list on The Share Centre web site on their tips page. I am a member and logged in to see it but you can probably fiind it. It gives their opinion about whether the co's are strong buys and medium/high risk. Worth a look.
I have never been tempted to buy to buy a tracker. Rather have unit trust/oiecs.
It was good to see on the Trustnet site today the list of funds people are buying and to find I had four out of the five. They have all gone down of course but I am staying with them.

sabretoothtigger

I couldnt find a 1980 chart but in 1984 the ftse was 1000. I dont think that equates to the ft-30

egor110

Rather than buying individual shares i'm looking at a long term high yield type thing such as iukd or iusp http://uk.ishares.com/fund/fund_performance.do?fundId=157835
So from what i've read you buy shares and just dit on them then reinvest the dividend on more shares?