The Inflationary Holocaust Happening Anytime Soon

wombat42_2

Reaper wrote: »

You finish with "....." without actually making your point. Looking again at the chart and even if you restrict the view to just 40 years the result is the same. Ignoring the oil crisis (because that was caused by the sudden increase in oil prices so inflation caused recession not the other way round) the trend still clearly shows inflation low or declining during recession years.

I dont think this was the main thrust of Rogers point. He is saying that hyperinflation is likely in this case because the economy is being swamped with printed new money and also commodities often do well when equities dont.

Do you have a chart for the Weimar republic in Germany ?

Reaper

There are always exceptions to any rule. The Weimar republic in the past and Zimbabwe today had hyper-inflation problems because governements printed money without tackling the cause of the problem.

If you believe the cause of the problem is being tackled (as I do) then hyper-inflation will not occur. Your guy believes govenments are not tackling the cause which is, I assume, how he arrives at his conclusion.

bazster

wombat42 wrote: »

He is saying that hyperinflation is likely in this case because the economy is being swamped with printed new money and also commodities often do well when equities dont.

And maybe he's right, but for me it's a point of principle that when someone bellows at me that the sky is falling in then they should be suspected of having a vested interest and treated with a large dose of scepticism.

innovate

wombat42 wrote: »

Jim Rogers is most keen on agricultural commodities, He suggests that people buy their own tractor and own some farm land.

Now that really made me laugh! Just a few questions:

• who is building the tractors
• who is providing the raw materials needed to build the tractors
• who is building the tools needed to build the tractors, and to harvest the raw materials needed (metal, plastics, glass, rubber etc etc etc)
• who is providing the fuel to power the tractors
• who is building and running the pipelines to distribute the fuel
• who is making the clothes needed for the tractor owners, the people who provide the raw materials, people who build the and run the pipelines etc
• who is providing health care for the tractor owners and everyone else
• who is building houses for the tractor owners and everyone else

This is only a tiny list of things to consider when suggesting "people buy their own tractor and own some farm land". Jim Rogers doesn't, by any chance, own a lot of shares in a tractor manufacturer?

wombat42_2

Reaper wrote: »

There are always exceptions to any rule. The Weimar republic in the past and Zimbabwe today had hyper-inflation problems because governements printed money without tackling the cause of the problem.

If you believe the cause of the problem is being tackled (as I do) then hyper-inflation will not occur. Your guy believes govenments are not tackling the cause which is, I assume, how he arrives at his conclusion.

Well you have to admit that the way the government has responded is in piecemeal acts of desperation, throwing everything possible at the problem including vast amounts of money. And there are still big problems remaining. Also the slashing of interest rates is long term inflationary.

Rogers belives that we may well get a Japan style lost decade (the 90s) and it would have been better if we just let the bad banks go bust which would have been brutal short term but good long term.

wombat42_2

innovate wrote: »

Now that really made me laugh! Just a few questions:

• who is building the tractors
• who is providing the raw materials needed to build the tractors
• who is building the tools needed to build the tractors, and to harvest the raw materials needed (metal, plastics, glass, rubber etc etc etc)
• who is providing the fuel to power the tractors
• who is building and running the pipelines to distribute the fuel
• who is making the clothes needed for the tractor owners, the people who provide the raw materials, people who build the and run the pipelines etc
• who is providing health care for the tractor owners and everyone else
• who is building houses for the tractor owners and everyone else

This is only a tiny list of things to consider when suggesting "people buy their own tractor and own some farm land". Jim Rogers doesn't, by any chance, own a lot of shares in a tractor manufacturer?

UM I dont think he is saying that everone on the planet should do this. He is just saying that agricultural commodities should be a good investment. See here for example: http://www.commodityonline.com/news/Western-Canadian-farmland-Gold-with-a-cash-yield-12203-3-1.html

wombat42_2

WE COULD WELL GET BIFLATION

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biflation

meester

nicko33 wrote: »

so you thought it would be a good idea to be offensive yourself, just to make sure

I find wombat's endless missives on 'Buy China', 'Buy oil', 'bloke who lost the Bunker-Hunt fortune says buys silver', a minor source of amusement.

Amusing, something the holocaust isn't.

Which is why I found this particularly offensive coming from this particular poster.

wombat42_2

meester wrote: »

I find wombat's endless missives on 'Buy China', 'Buy oil', 'bloke who lost the Bunker-Hunt fortune says buys silver', a minor source of amusement.

Amusing, something the holocaust isn't.

Which is why I found this particularly offensive coming from this particular poster.

I started this thread with two links supporting the view of hyperinflation, one from a highly respcted guru. I personally have quite a lot of time for Jim Rogers but i might have equally simply started a thread supported by links for something i personaly didnt agree with to generate debate. Jim Rogers used the word "holocaust" not me and finding the terminology distasteful hardly negates the argument for the concept.

dunker1

lol, it really is most amusing how the sheep who bought into the commodity supercycle theory and who must be currently sitting on huge losses are clinging to any hope that a reversal is gonna happen. Jim Rogers has a following because he is outspoken and shouts louder than others, this will always get people on board to his philosphies, i should know as my brother was one of them and has been stung massively. Lets get this clear....we are in and gonna be in a massive global slowdown..this can only equal a far far lower demand for commodities...plain and simple fact.