When will houses crash 50% ?

friar

With all this IMF meltdown woe,and stocks down 20% for now,when will property in the better areas come down?
In my City Canterbury, it's seen as a hot spot with 5% drops in last 12 months.(I think its more in reality,say 10/15%)
I just dont believe it can hang on,but it is for now.
What are your views???

ad9898_3

Patience, the housing market is full of people who believe it or not, have no idea of the current situation, they watch QVC and Ideal World:D

The market is like an oil tanker, huge and slow moving. The bottom is probably about 18-24 months away, the trough could last anything upto 5 years after that.

The banks will not lend in the way have in the past, this alone will gaurantee the falls

Average wage 25k
Average house 160k +

The math is simple

mr.broderick

friar wrote: »

With all this IMF meltdown woe,and stocks down 20% for now,when will property in the better areas come down?
In my City Canterbury, it's seen as a hot spot with 5% drops in last 12 months.(I think its more in reality,say 10/15%)
I just dont believe it can hang on,but it is for now.
What are your views???

You have already missed the bottom sir.

mr.broderick

ad9898 wrote: »

Patience, the housing market is full of people who believe it or not, have no idea of the current situation, they watch QVC and Ideal World:D

The market is like an oil tanker, huge and slow moving. The bottom is probably about 18-24 months away, the trough could last anything upto 5 years after that.

The banks will not lend in the way have in the past, this alone will gaurantee the falls

Average wage 25k
Average house 160k +

The math is simple

QVC still going?

I am a bit above average, my wife who works maybe half the hours i do gets about 15k. Our combined salary is probably 50kish. Average house 160k no probs for us..

ad9898_3

mr.broderick wrote: »

QVC still going?

I am a bit above average, my wife who works maybe half the hours i do gets about 15k. Our combined salary is probably 50kish. Average house 160k no probs for us..

You're on about 35k then, quite a bit more than average. If you were on 25k you would have a combined wage of 40k, 2.5x both is 100k.

I believe this historical lending level will return, if it hasn't already

Brian_Bullocks

mr.broderick wrote: »

You have already missed the bottom sir.

Why, what did you want him to stick in there, mr.broderick?

dopester

ad9898 wrote: »

Average wage 25k
Average house 160k +

The math is simple

Except for I reckon unemployment and pay-cuts will reduce the average wage.

Added to which, so many people, expecting constantly high HPI year-on-year forever, are juggling debt they were addicted to "in the good times."

dopester

mr.broderick wrote: »

I am a bit above average, my wife who works maybe half the hours i do gets about 15k. Our combined salary is probably 50kish. Average house 160k no probs for us..

I'm genuinely hoping they don't review operations in the UK, in the same way they have done in Spain.

Nissan to slash one third of staff in Spain -report
Sat Oct 11, 2008 7:46am EDT

MADRID, Oct 11 (Reuters) - Nissan Motor Co (7201.T: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) is finalising plans to cut one third of its 4,300-strong work force at its Barcelona factory, Spanish daily El Pais reported on Saturday, citing unnamed industry sources.

The Zona Franca factory in Barcelona specialises in making heavy sports utility vehicles, which have undergone some of the sharpest declines in sales amid a global slowdown in auto markets.

http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssConsumerGoodsAndRetailNews/idUSLB46292120081011

mr.broderick

dopester wrote: »

I'm genuinely hoping they don't review operations in the UK, in the same way they have done in Spain.




http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssConsumerGoodsAndRetailNews/idUSLB46292120081011

Yeah sign of the times i'm afraid.

fc123

According to Conrad, he looked at some properties that were already 50% off 07 peak.

I chatted to a customer who is desperate to move abroad (for love) and put house on @ 300k in Jan 08.
Reduced to 250k May 08...convinced this would clinch it. Nothing...a few viewings but no offers that could proceed.
She said that she would accept 150k cash if someone offered it (she has no mortgage).
I suggested auction and she hadn't considered that before, so is going to look into it.
If she sells @150k...that's 50% off.

I haven't watched the ei group auctions for some time...are auction prices @ 50% off peak yet?

fc123

dopester wrote: »

I'm genuinely hoping they don't review operations in the UK, in the same way they have done in Spain.




http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssConsumerGoodsAndRetailNews/idUSLB46292120081011

This is the next stage of the whole thing..will happen quicker than the 90's I think. Many staff are employed in a more flexible way nowadays too.