When will houses crash 50% ?

GDB2222

fc123 wrote: »

According to Conrad, he looked at some properties that were already 50% off 07 peak.

I chatted to a customer who is desperate to move abroad (for love) and put house on @ 300k in Jan 08.
Reduced to 250k May 08...convinced this would clinch it. Nothing...a few viewings but no offers that could proceed.
She said that she would accept 150k cash if someone offered it (she has no mortgage).
I suggested auction and she hadn't considered that before, so is going to look into it.
If she sells @150k...that's 50% off.

I haven't watched the ei group auctions for some time...are auction prices @ 50% off peak yet?

Decent properties are nowhere near 50% off. Of course, I have no idea whether the £300k figure was reasonable. Do you have a link to the property?

PasturesNew

Houses have a long way to fall yet ... but it won't be 2008 or 2009. I think 2010-2012 will be the years to buy.

beingjdc

Slow and steady. The spread betting market currently suggests a bottom in late 2010 at 37.5% off peak prices, or just over 50% down in real terms.

friar

ad9898 wrote: »

Patience, the housing market is full of people who believe it or not, have no idea of the current situation, they watch QVC and Ideal World:D

The market is like an oil tanker, huge and slow moving. The bottom is probably about 18-24 months away, the trough could last anything upto 5 years after that.

The banks will not lend in the way have in the past, this alone will gaurantee the falls

Average wage 25k
Average house 160k +

The math is simple

Yes that makes sense!
I think that the owners of said properties have also known them to be very over priced,and happy to see falls, if what they want to buy is also cheaper.

stevetodd

beingjdc wrote: »

Slow and steady. The spread betting market currently suggests a bottom in late 2010 at 37.5% off peak prices, or just over 50% down in real terms.

I was trying to find spread betting quotes for houses prices but only found websites where you had to open an account to see the prices, do you have a link to a site that allows visitors to see prices? If not and you are an account holder perhaps you would be good enough to paste some prices on this thread please?

2010 with a 37.5% fall from the 2007 peak is about my gut feel for the bottom, although I tend to exclude the hyped luxury flat market (which I have always consider overpriced), if this is also considered I would have thought the bottom was more around the 40% mark.

beingjdc

stevetodd wrote: »

I was trying to find spread betting quotes for houses prices but only found websites where you had to open an account to see the prices, do you have a link to a site that allows visitors to see prices? If not and you are an account holder perhaps you would be good enough to paste some prices on this thread please?

OK well, you need an account at IGIndex to see their prices, but they're very similar to the ones at Spreadfair.com, which you can see without an account. The December 2010 spread is currently 121k to sell, and 129k to buy, peak last Summer having been near as damnit 200k.

stevetodd

beingjdc wrote: »

OK well, you need an account at IGIndex to see their prices, but they're very similar to the ones at Spreadfair.com, which you can see without an account. The December 2010 spread is currently 121k to sell, and 129k to buy, peak last Summer having been near as damnit 200k.

Thanks I have an IG account (which I haven't used for about 5 years) but its sports only, I am interested in the london market, it seems to be forecasted as about another 20% drop (from end of DEc 2008, so more from summer 2007 obviously ie about 35%). That was helpful as I wanted to test my opinion against those of the market makers, I am actually in line with them, I just wanted to check I wasn't differing from them. Whilst it is just a guestimation of course it is a check that I have been wanting to check for while.

WTF?_2

mr.broderick wrote: »

I am a bit above average, my wife who works maybe half the hours i do gets about 15k. Our combined salary is probably 50kish. Average house 160k no probs for us..

Not a dig: I understand you work in the motor trade. Do you honestly expect that your income is secure? It's going to be one of the hardest hit parts of the economy after things that are directly related to building and selling houses.

beingjdc

!!!!!!? wrote: »

Not a dig: I understand you work in the motor trade. Do you honestly expect that your income is secure? It's going to be one of the hardest hit parts of the economy after things that are directly related to building and selling houses.

The used market might not be bad - lots of people needing to sell, and lots of people deciding to buy second hand instead of new given the present circumstances?

mystic_trev

mr.broderick wrote: »

You have already missed the bottom sir.

Isn't that what Bruno said to the bloke with a Golfing umbrella :rotfl: