Halifax - September down 1.3% yoy 12.4%

TDS_2

Why is it that the vertical scale isn't linear (spacing at highly negative values seems smaller than at zero). More media pedalling...

GDB2222

House price to earnings ratio – a key affordability measure - is improving. [FONT=Arial,Arial][FONT=Arial,Arial]The house price to average earnings ratio has fallen from a peak of 5.84 in July 2007 to 5.02 in July 2008. This is the lowest level for more than four and a half years (February 2004: 5.01). We expect a further improvement in the ratio as prices continue to soften. The long-term average is 4.0.
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Long-term average is 4.0 Yeah, right! Surely, it depends over what period you measure it, and maybe the bubble should be left out? 3.5 is more reasonable as an average, but in any case, they should expect some over-shoot below the average. Last recession, it went to 3.09, which would mean nearly a 40% further drop in real terms.

LittleMissAspie

Hah you're right, look at the gap between -5 to -6, and the gap between -9 to -10! Dearie me.

ginvzt

Because it is a 'bubble' projected on the 2D. So, it is like with the globe - when you flatten, It is all distorted... It is bursting now - soon the gridlines will be spaced evenly...

ad9898_3

GDB2222 wrote: »

House price to earnings ratio – a key affordability measure - is improving. [FONT=Arial,Arial][FONT=Arial,Arial]The house price to average earnings ratio has fallen from a peak of 5.84 in July 2007 to 5.02 in July 2008. This is the lowest level for more than four and a half years (February 2004: 5.01). We expect a further improvement in the ratio as prices continue to soften. The long-term average is 4.0.
[/FONT][/FONT]

Long-term average is 4.0 Yeah, right! Surely, it depends over what period you measure it, and maybe the bubble should be left out? 3.5 is more reasonable as an average, but in any case, they should expect some over-shoot below the average. Last recession, it went to 3.09, which would mean nearly a 40% further drop in real terms.

Yeah, the point is so many people have other debts including the mortgage, I'd like to see what the earnings ratio is to mortgage/unsecured debt. I think that would be a real eye opener.

MrDT

TDS wrote: »

Why is it that the vertical scale isn't linear (spacing at highly negative values seems smaller than at zero). More media pedalling...

Thought this might be one of those dodgy optical illusion thingies, so I checked in paint pixel by pixel - the grid spacing definitely isn't consistent.

Dithering_Dad

angrypirate wrote: »

13.4% is the true 12 month fall when comparing directly Sept 08 with Sept 07. 12.4% is where Halifax have averaged the monthly figures into quarterly and then averaged these quarterly figures into annual, hence creating a lag of approx half a quarter ie 1.5 months.

If the YTD figure of 13.4% is correct then are we actually in a 'crash'? When I asked the question 'is there a mathematical equation that is applied to a housing crash in the same way that there is to a stockmarket crash', the consensus seemed to be a 30% drop. If that is indeed the case, then we're not even half-way there to calling the current situation a crash.

Is that right, or was I missled with the housing crash definition?

Dan:_4

Dithering_Dad wrote: »

If the YTD figure of 13.4% is correct then are we actually in a 'crash'? When I asked the question 'is there a mathematical equation that is applied to a housing crash in the same way that there is to a stockmarket crash', the consensus seemed to be a 30% drop. If that is indeed the case, then we're not even half-way there to calling the current situation a crash.

Is that right, or was I missled with the housing crash definition?

I think your right.

If the early 1990s is classed as a 'Crash' then this is a Crash now.

luvpump

MrDT wrote: »

Thought this might be one of those dodgy optical illusion thingies, so I checked in paint pixel by pixel - the grid spacing definitely isn't consistent.

So The Impartial BBC is using Propaganda Techniques on the general populace ?? Surely not :rolleyes:

Generali

Dithering_Dad wrote: »

If the YTD figure of 13.4% is correct then are we actually in a 'crash'? When I asked the question 'is there a mathematical equation that is applied to a housing crash in the same way that there is to a stockmarket crash', the consensus seemed to be a 30% drop. If that is indeed the case, then we're not even half-way there to calling the current situation a crash.

Is that right, or was I missled with the housing crash definition?

Wikipedia says (link)

There is no numerically specific definition of a crash but the term commonly applies to steep double-digit percentage losses in a stock market index over a period of several days

A bear market is usually taken to be a fall of 20% or more top-to-bottom.