Halifax - September down 1.3% yoy 12.4%

domcastro

The BBC figure earlier was the comparison of this September to last September 13.3% down.

PasturesNew

If prices dropped 1.3% each month, prices would be half what they are today in month 53.

angrypirate

PasturesNew wrote: »

If prices dropped 1.3% each month, prices would be half what they are today in month 53.

That would represent approximately a 60% fall from peak, and nearer 75% once you factor in inflation. I dont think even the most bearish of us on hear are expecting 75% falls. Comments like this are a bit silly - would you put money on prices fallying at 1.3% a month for the next 53 months? No? I didnt think so. Sentiment changes - in a 18months or so, prices will stabilise, then a few years after that they will start climbing again, and hopefully the HPI will be at a slower rate (more inline with wage inflation) and more sustainable.

PasturesNew

angrypirate wrote: »

That would represent approximately a 60% fall from peak, and nearer 75% once you factor in inflation. I dont think even the most bearish of us on hear are expecting 75% falls. Comments like this are a bit silly - would you put money on prices fallying at 1.3% a month for the next 53 months? No? I didnt think so. Sentiment changes - in a 18months or so, prices will stabilise, then a few years after that they will start climbing again, and hopefully the HPI will be at a slower rate (more inline with wage inflation) and more sustainable.

I know. It was simply a mathematical observation.

luvpump

ginvzt wrote: »

That made me smile as well - it is amazing, they will see a positive in anything!!! (Like prices are still higher than 3 years ago - from them report few months ago)

Yeah great..the price falls are slowing down !!!... so I guess by, say January prices would have stopped falling & will be stable ... :rolleyes:

WTF?_2

Generali wrote: »

Surely that can't be right. The figures are for -ve HPI yet they have been announced after the MPC meeting. Hang on, it's only 30 days until the next one.

The conspiracy theorists are right!

Aaah - but wasn't the MPC meeting supposed to be today or something? That 0.5% cut yesterday was decided between Merv, the government and some sort of council of central banks.


Anyway, all the interest rate cuts in the world ain't gonna save UK house prices now. The unsustainable is no longer possible - the markets are ruthlessly cutting away anything which doesn't have sound fundamentals - maybe going a bit too far in the process.

mystic_trev

angrypirate wrote: »

Sentiment changes - in a 18months or so, prices will stabilise, then a few years after that they will start climbing again, and hopefully the HPI will be at a slower rate (more inline with wage inflation) and more sustainable.

I' not so sure, sentiment is not that easy to change. Just as positive sentiment muliplied with HPI, so it will negative sentiment with HPD. Throw into that a recession and much higher unemployment, you've go a nasty cocktail.

TuftyMatt

By the time the world gets back on it's feet (maybe in a year or so at best?) house prices will have come off another 15% from todays figure I feel.

Unemployment is going up, mortgages will not become easier to get at good rates, inflation will rise, energy prices will rise and confidence will fall.

This is all my own opinion and is just based on a educated guess from following the economic situation over the past 20 years.

Generali

If falls continue at the same rate MoM, YoY falls will appear to moderate as we're going to be stripping out months from the index where prices fell rather than rose. There'll be another jump in December (an up month last year) before it moderates again.

You heard it here first!

ad9898_3

Updated graph, look, if you use a electron microscope you maybe able to see the "leveling off of the falls" as is being pedaled in the media:D

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