A prediction

del1001

2) Another British bank will go down and this time the government won't save it
3) That bank will be Royal Bank of Scotland

I don't think that would be allowed to happen, like previous poster says, PM & Chancellor are Scots, imagine the racket that would cause, and would I be right in saying that would also bring down Natwest as well?

Reaper

I think people are a bit surprised at my mention of RBS - not one that posters have picked up on before, so here's why...

A big problem exists for banks that have large funding gaps - meaning those who lent out more money than they got from savings. The UK's worst offender was HBOS who have buckled already, and the second worse offender is RBS with a £160 billion gap.

In the current climate it is hard to persuade anybody to lend so they must be struggling to renew those debts as each term finishes. If they do go under they are so big the government couldn't nationalize them and would have to hope a buyer would rescue them, but there are a limited number of buyers out there and they don't have unlimited cheque books.

However even if they do fail I think savers won't lose out, so don't lose any sleep over it.

The_One_Who

I agree with Tony, above. Letting another "Scottish" bank go under would probably have the SNP jumping for joy and would be pushing independence even more. Given that they have their magical never ending money pot they would, of course, save all Scottish banks if Scotland were to go it alone.

RBS would no doubt be handed over to another large bank.

gaol

I don't know what's worse, English posters who suspect that Gordon Brown will make a special effort to save a Scottish bank; or Scottish Nationalists who believe he is part of some Unionist conspiracy after the HBOS deal.

Actually, worse than either, is inane speculation by anonymous forumites.

mybrainhurts

OK, here is an absolutely specific prediction for you: by this time next week Icesave's and Kaupthing's uk retail operations will have been hived off and bought up by someone like Santander. I'm not sure if that confirms or contradicts your point 1).

ianmr65

Reaper wrote: »

I think people are a bit surprised at my mention of RBS - not one that posters have picked up on before, so here's why...

A big problem exists for banks that have large funding gaps - meaning those who lent out more money than they got from savings. The UK's worst offender was HBOS who have buckled already, and the second worse offender is RBS with a £160 billion gap.

In the current climate it is hard to persuade anybody to lend so they must be struggling to renew those debts as each term finishes. If they do go under they are so big the government couldn't nationalize them and would have to hope a buyer would rescue them, but there are a limited number of buyers out there and they don't have unlimited cheque books.

However even if they do fail I think savers won't lose out, so don't lose any sleep over it.

I agree that RBS looks shaky... Robert Peston said last week that a UK bank that was not Lloyds or HBOS was within a couple of days of serious liquidity problems. And that the BoE had to relax collateral rules to rescue it. He declined to name it, and the item seems to have dissappeared from his blog... My guess is that he was talking about RBS!!

StevieJ

Interesting that a poster can suggest RBS will go bust, with no criticism but if someone suggests the same of Icesave all hell breaks loose.

greenface

everton result please

ianmr65

mybrainhurts wrote: »

OK, here is an absolutely specific prediction for you: by this time next week Icesave's and Kaupthing's uk retail operations will have been hived off and bought up by someone like Santander. I'm not sure if that confirms or contradicts your point 1).

They don't have 'uk retail operations' they have pan-european retail operations.

And in any case... taking me as an example...

My mortgage was with a mid-sized uk bulding socieity, it's now being transfered, with out so much as a by your leave - to a large building society, who is taking over my building society.

Two of my credit cards were with a large mortage bank, and they are now going over to another Bank.

My bank has just bought a major stake in a failed investment bank, which may or may not make it more secure...

I guess many people are in a similar position, especially those with a finacial relationship with B&B, Hbos, AIG et al. The only thing we can be certain of is that the Banking and fincial world will look very different in the years ahead than it did this time last year.

Any other 'predictions' as to what is going to happen next are meaningless. If anybody could predict with 100% certainty what's going to happen next , they wouldn't be posting on here. They'd be busy ammassing a fortune, as the all knowing Oracle that the global banking community would see as someting close to the second coming.

The only thing that i can be absolutly sure of is that Gold coins i have squirrelled away, are not going anywhere, aren't going to be transfered anywhere. Aren't going to be sold, nationalised, broken up, or compensated or go into default.
And should i hope appreciate in value by more than the 50% that they have since i bought them.

This helps to explain why the south african gold minting plants are running 7 days a week, and physical gold sales are at an all time high..
Notwithstanding that central banks are off loading the stuff to keep the price down and get more liquid.

mybrainhurts

ianmr65 wrote: »

They don't have 'uk retail operations' they have pan-european retail operations.

the most nitpicking point i have ever seen made even on the internet. can we not agree that the subset of their pan-european retail operations where depositors live in the uk can be called a uk operation and could with a litle ingenuity be disentangled and sold off separately?

anyway the spirit of this thread is, put up or shut up. i will look silly, or not, this time next week; until then i dont propose to argue the toss.

As for your gold it has been going down the pan for months. you just haven't noticed because sterling has been doing the same. I will forbear from predicting what it will be worth in three months time, so as not to spoil your tea. It is certainly very pretty, though, and if in coin form will never sink below its face value in the country of issue.