Crash Crash Crash !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

sabretoothtigger

lol sounds good. Wish I had some wine or maybe some southern comfort

My sig is a slight mystery to myself, I put it there as a reminder. I was trying to understand how or who would benefit from inflation, I presume he meant governments.
Half my posts are the same, just notes trying to understand something

john539

fc123 wrote: »

I remember what I was trying to type now.......I was trying agree with your new signature...but failed dismally as I was in a 'Being a very nice wife' moment.

Yes but did you get the right end of the "stick", that's we all want to know ? :rotfl: :beer: :j :T

fc123

john539 wrote: »

Yes but did you get the right end of the "stick", that's we all want to know ? :rotfl: :beer: :j :T

After 23 years, we are having a strange honeymoon thing at the moment....don't know if any older (older than me, that is) couples know if this is normal?
It's like when we first met.....we've had hard times and some years ago, I could have quite happily thrown his dinner over him and ignored him for a couple of days. I'm ashamed to say that I have done that in the past.

I also once served him cat food disguised as dinner...this was 16 years ago and was justified at the time (he did a bad thing) ....worse, he ate half of it before working out something wasn't quite right.

sabretoothtigger

lol you must be a good cook to have nearly got away with that

sabretoothtigger

fc123

I admit to being a bit lost with the above but the sig is interesting. Do you change them weekly? ;-)

sabretoothtigger

daily sometimes Here is a population pyramid animation ! http://www.statistics.gov.uk/populationestimates/svg_pyramid/uk/index.html

The above just means the USA government has spent/invested alot money supporting a previously 'free market'.
UK is doing similar but some of the usa sub prime measures are maybe relevant to uk fortunes, etc so its worth keeping an eye on

fc123

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

daily sometimes Here is a population pyramid animation ! http://www.statistics.gov.uk/populationestimates/svg_pyramid/uk/index.html

The above just means the USA government has spent/invested alot money supporting a previously 'free market'.
UK is doing similar but some of the usa sub prime measures are maybe relevant to uk fortunes, etc so it's worth keeping an eye on

Link doesn't work for me. ;-(

sabretoothtigger

You may need to install some small software, its mentioned on this page

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/populationestimates/svg_pyramid/default.htm

bubblesmoney

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

I think you post good tips too FC

I definitely support spending time, interest and possibly some money in India.


Over the last two decades they have GDP average growth of 5%. 17% of the world live in India and a quarter of the worlds under 30's live there vs our western retiring population.
Mumbai was the setting for Slumdog but also accommodates asias oldest stock exchange

I'll be watching Slumdog Millionaire hopefully



http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5EBSESN

i feel the BSE or NSE in india has got further to fall.

reasons being-

• there is a lag between crashes here and a longer term effect there even though stock market crashes occur simultaeneously, ithe economy as a whole take a longer while to slow down as contracts already signed will still be in play and when the new contracts dry up there will be job losses and trigger market effects slowly but surely.
• IT sector especially in consulting might be affected
• other outsourcing might be affected as well if protectionism starts
• IT companies have already made job cuts there
• feel banks like ICICI will get the short end of the stick even though they will get bailed out by the indian govt i feel. they have been giving loans like crazy plus credit cards as well over the last few years. just personal views from what i saw was happening there, thats why i held back on stock market last few years as i felt it had jumped too fast
• insider trading occurs. probably occurs on other stock exchanges here too but in a more sophisticated manner. old boys club etc etc
• satyam accounting scandal is still eveolving, dont know how things will pan out in the end
• for years in a row elections havent really been decisive, leading to coalitions and hence policies get pulled in all directions. what ever has been achieved in the meantime has been inspite of these adversities
• real estate had BOOOOMed during the last few years, in many areas by 30 times or more. i feel long over due for a crash. that will have an effect on the stock market. i can easily buy a place in london or in any city of uk (albiet a modest place). but i'll have to think hard buying in many cities in india because of the cost!!! have seen notional appreciation of my property think atleast 30 times in a decade. i dont think the economic changes have been that much to justify such prices
• loads of cities flats have mushroomed everywhere and loads vacant. sooner or later they will be forced on to the market and bring a crash
• i think just like everywhere else the IT companies are over rated and have unjustified PE ratios. it is just hype and makes some sense only in a bull market but poor value in a falling market
• infrastructure is developing very slowly, power production is not keeping pace with development and freq shortages and power cuts in many areas
• water shortages and in many areas supply is only for a few hours or every few days and most people have to have big underground tanks for storing when water is supplied and use it judiciously or tap well water or borewell water. many areas even bore well water levels falling as too many borewells and people are having to dig deeper and deeper
• judiciary is a pile of shiite because too slow, decades of backlog of cases
• very poor labour laws. people cant fire a worker who gets drunk and comes to work, it takes more than 2y even for such cases and even then the worker might win on technicalities or because of unions especially in factories. precisely the reason most industries are small sector to limit union activities.
• v poor education levels especially in some states with high birth rates but since they get most votes in a democracy they ruin the country with their populist policies
• more than 50% of population subsistent on agriculture
• more than 40% power transmission losses (lost / stolen) !

inspite of these there are a lot of good factors and i will invest there too but am waiting for a further fall to probably around 6000 BSE. just my feeling and not based on something concrete. but it was precisely that feeling that prevented me investing in the last couple of years and saved me a lot of pain now.

reasons for investment

• huge population will help consumer industry
• still undeveloped market so huge potential for growth for simple things like any consumer products at home that we take for granted here
• even a company selling even cheap tooth paste or soaps can make a killing selling for a population of a billion and more.
• ports are under developed. most trade is not containerised. so lots of scope for development there
• good rail network for goods transport presently passenger sector is over stretched so lots of scope for investment there
• road network needs a lot of investment
• hotel sector has under investment especially of the business class and tourism class of hotels
• untapped tourism sector - has deserts, massive forest, himalayas for snow related activities (many of those regions are having terrorisn probs now but some areas are still ok), goa, kerala, rajastan. loads of other untapped places- too many places to name
• food processing has loads of scope for investment, will save loads. presently more than 50% agricultural products wasted because of no storage or processing facilities
• lower wage levels
• high number of people educated in english. high number of engineers and other graduates
• lower cost of living
• been a democracy since independence in 1947 except for a year or more during emergency rule decades ago
• defense and sattelite launch industry is slowly maturing
• already one thorium powered reactor is being built. so if this clicks then energy self sufficiency will be hopefully more achievable. this will become crucial as oil reserves decrease
• good amount of thorium reserves.

  Under the USGS estimate, Australia and India have particularly large reserves of thorium. India and Australia are believed to possess approx 300,000 metric tonnes each; i.e. each country possessing 25% of the world's thorium reserves.[7] However, in the OECD reports, estimates of Australian's Reasonably Assured Reserves (RAR) of Thorium indicate only 19,000 metric tonnes and not 300,000 tonnes as indicated by USGS. The two sources vary wildly for countries such as Brazil, Turkey, and Australia. However, both reports appear to show some consistency with respect to India's thorium reserve figures, with 290,000 metric tonnes (USGS) and 319,000 metric tonnes (OECD/IAEA). Furthermore the IAEA report mentions that India possesses two thirds (67%) of global reserves of monazite, the primary thorium ore:

• The world’s reserve of monazite is estimated to be in the range of 12 million tonnes of which nearly 8 million tonnes occur with the heavy minerals in the beach sands of India in the States of Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Orissa.
  [8]
  The IAEA also states that recent reports have upgraded India's thorium deposits up from approximately 300,000 metric tonnes to 650,000 metric tonnes:
  In the RAR category, the deposits in Brazil, Turkey and India are in the range of 0.60, 0.38 and 0.32 million tonnes respectively. The thorium deposits in India has recently been reported to be in the range 0.65 million tonnes.
  [9]
  Therefore, the IAEA and OECD appear to conclude that Brazil and India may actually possess the lion's share of world's thorium deposits.
• most important majority of the population is below 30y! so work force issues shouldnt be a problem for decades unlike china whgich has an aging population
• same reason why this will be a big market for all consumer industries. no industry can ignore a population of more than 1 billion, majority of which are in the consumer age group. this applies even if they are poor.
• mobile telephone have changed the rural land scape. it is cheap costing just 1rupee a min (1£=75Rs approx)
• internet is taking off slowly. this will have multiplier effects on small companies as they will be able to reach a bigger market
• loads of things may be wrong there but loads going for it too.