Manchester Flats... when/where to buy!?

tr3mor

Dithering_Dad wrote: »

If I were thinking of buying in Manchester, I'd stay well away from the Northern Quarter (or Ancoats as it used to be called). It contains lots of poor quality new builds that are standing empty. I'd be looking at some of the apartments that were converted from the old warehouses and mill buildings - well built industrial sized spaces with a lot of history and some original features.

I'd look around the original areas such as Castlefields or across the road in Whitworth Street.

By Northern Quarter I meant basically Oldham St, Tib St, etc. Older flats actually in the city centre. Not the sh*tty newbuilds in Ancoats.

Dithering_Dad

GDB2222 wrote: »

Or buy now and be in negative equity in 5 years time, so unable to move then and watch the next (hopefully much smaller!) boom pass you by?

Why is that such a guaranteed occurance? It's thrown around by so many in the Housing board that it's become factual event that will happen to all buyers. If someone buys a house right now with a 30% reduction and a 10% deposit, will they even see negative equity?

Prices don't fall at a uniform rate, some sectors have already seen large reductions, apartments for example. They were the first to crash and now the rest of the market is going to catch up.

If we say that on average, apartments have dropped 30%, while the rest of the market has dropped 10%, do people really think that if we see a 40% correction across the board, that apartments will keep falling at a uniform rate along with the rest of the housing stock?

Not likely because in that scenario, when the average family home price finally reaches a 40% drop, the average price of apartments will have dropped by 60%.

Logically, the market will simply catch up to the falls in starter homes. It may well be that apartments have already seen their major falls and will just decrease by smaller fractions as the rest of the market drops by larger amounts.

GDB2222

It's not a guaranteed occurrence, but it's certainly a possibility. BTW, I don't entirely buy your suggestion that flats are just leading the market down. They had further to fall to get back to a sensible level.

Dithering_Dad

GDB2222 wrote: »

It's not a guaranteed occurrence, but it's certainly a possibility. BTW, I don't entirely buy your suggestion that flats are just leading the market down. They had further to fall to get back to a sensible level.

I guess that's the gamble - if you think that flats have led the market down and have had most of their losses, plus you can get additional discounts from sellers who are desperate to sell (i.e. because they want to start or have already started a family or because they're moving to another city) then buy. If you think that flats have a further 20% - 30% to drop (over a reasonable period of a couple of years) then don't buy. Though I do think that my point about there being more factors to buying a home than just price is a valid one.

howler_2

Dithering_Dad wrote: »

Why is that such a guaranteed occurance? It's thrown around by so many in the Housing board that it's become factual event that will happen to all buyers. If someone buys a house right now with a 30% reduction and a 10% deposit, will they even see negative equity?

Prices don't fall at a uniform rate, some sectors have already seen large reductions, apartments for example. They were the first to crash and now the rest of the market is going to catch up.

If we say that on average, apartments have dropped 30%, while the rest of the market has dropped 10%, do people really think that if we see a 40% correction across the board, that apartments will keep falling at a uniform rate along with the rest of the housing stock?

Not likely because in that scenario, when the average family home price finally reaches a 40% drop, the average price of apartments will have dropped by 60%.

Logically, the market will simply catch up to the falls in starter homes. It may well be that apartments have already seen their major falls and will just decrease by smaller fractions as the rest of the market drops by larger amounts.

Flats have already fallen 50% - 60%

Check out sale prices from the auctions

Dithering_Dad

howler wrote: »

[Some] Flats have already fallen 50% - 60%

Check out sale prices from the auctions

Exactly, so do you think they will fall further over the next few years? In the scenario, if the rest of the market falls a further 30% in the next 3 years, do you think these flats will continue to fall in line with this and fall 90%?

You could bag a bargain now that may undercut the prices in 2 years time, with the benefit being that you have your own home and probably pay less in mortgage than in rent.

howler_2

Dithering_Dad wrote: »

Exactly, so do you think they will fall further over the next few years?

You could bag a bargain now that may undercut the prices in 2 years time, with the benefit being that you have your own home and probably pay less in mortgage than in rent.

Yes I do think they'll fall further.

Because (but not limited to):

1. Mortgages have dried up
2. Unemployment is rising
3. Prices of flats were effectively part of a pyramid selling scheme.

And not to forget we're going through the biggest crisis in the world economy that I can remember.

I could go on but the short answer is yes.

Not long ago people were doubting that the predicted falls of 35% - 50% would be achieved. Stop living in denial - there is very little (very, very, very little actually) to support the prices of these flats

Dithering_Dad

If prices fall 90% of their peak value then we're all doomed. I think that some people have spent far too long in here talking to people with the same views.

One person says 30% and you all agree. A month later you all say 40% and everyone agrees. In 12 months time I fully expect you all to be talking about 150% drops where the home owners will be paying you £10's of thousands to take them off their hands!

To be honest it's getting quite tedious that any amount of logical, compelling and reasoned debate is simply over-ridden with the 'house prices always fall' mentality of posters in here.

howler_2

Dithering_Dad wrote: »

If prices fall 90% of their peak value then we're all doomed. I think that some people have spent far too long in here talking to people with the same views.

One person says 30% and you all agree. A month later you all say 40% and everyone agrees. In 12 months time I fully expect you all to be talking about 150% drops where the home owners will be paying you £10's of thousands to take them off their hands!

To be honest it's getting quite tedious that any amount of logical, compelling and reasoned debate is simply over-ridden with the 'house prices always fall' mentality of posters in here.

Its not a case of me (or anyone else) predicting 50% + drops in prices and everyone agreeing - these falls have already happened. Thats actual sale prices compared against actual sale prices on the same property.

That should be clear.

You are behind events if you think falls you're thinking about 30% - 40% drop in flat prices. Question is how much further they can go, or whether they'll just be dumped (Alex Potter at Collins Stewart) - http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard-business/article-23562855-details/It%C2%92s+grim+up+north%2C+and+it%C2%92s+coming+to+a+street+near+you/article.do.

In which case those with the mortgages will indeed be paying £10's of thousands to have them taken off their hands.

Oh, and if its all becoming tedious for you why not go and dither somewhere else:cool:

Dithering_Dad

howler wrote: »

Oh, and if its all becoming tedious for you why not go and dither somewhere else:cool:

Tsk, it's so annoying when one makes an ironic remark that is totally lost on the audience. C- must do better, young howler.