Barrat slashes flats by 43%

Realy

mewbie wrote: »

It seems some people think that if / when Congress votes through the rescue plan it will immediately save the world, and more pertinently, house prices. It wont. Therefore these offers you are seeing now, while dramatic, are offers at the beginning of the meltdown. Prices have been dropping for just over a year now, the popular news commentators (the ones who are so out of touch with whats going on its laughable) are predicting another 10-20% off. So you can double that.

This crash is going to be huge. There is no need to be tempted by some early offers from Barratts, or anyone else. Plenty of time to wait, save and see.

I do not think anyone thinks the bill will stop HPC, only a return of confidence in the market will do that. If the bill starts to free up some of the interbank lending a bit of confidence may return but it will take a long time to rattle through.
On drops, I see no mortgages requiring a 50% deposit so I can’t see that being the case. Most best rates are 20-25% so that is most likely as I can not see them opening their selves up for more losses at the moment.
At the end of the day any prediction is a guess, the only time we will know the bottom of the market is when HPI starts again.
Edit: As for early offers has you said we are 1 year in so these are desprate offers in my book, but I am not saying they will all be sold tomorrow. But i will say come next year you will not see massive discounting, just built to order property (off Plan in my opinion)

Realy

TDS wrote: »

AIP?

These are tempting prices, but I can't see them dissapearing overnight. Best to sit tight (in my opinion).

Dont get me wrong, i am not saying go out at buy, but if you feel compeleld to do so set a price what you would pay for the property and what you think it is worth.
You would do the same at the bottom of the market if it is £250k now and you think £100K you could offer that. You may not get it. It could be £200K in a years time you still offer £100K. You may still not get it.
Its very hard to judge desperation by a seller, to me builders are more desprate to sell now than they will be in a years time as they will have got rid of stock houses and will be sitting on land banks waiting for a recovery (or at least some improvement in transaction rates).
But saying that a lot on here do not like NB so don't listen to me or anybody.;)

Raffles99

Realy wrote: »

to me builders are more desprate to sell now than they will be in a years time as they will have got rid of stock houses and will be sitting on land banks waiting for a recovery (or at least some improvement in transaction rates).

This is true. The Dresdner note also points out that "virtually all forthcoming developments mothballed". Of course, once you've started building a tower block you are highly likely to finish it, so stock will continue to come onto the market for another year or so, but stocks of new houses will soon be drying up.

Realy

Raffles99 wrote: »

This is true. The Dresdner note also points out that "virtually all forthcoming developments mothballed". Of course, once you've started building a tower block you are highly likely to finish it, so stock will continue to come onto the market for another year or so, but stocks of new houses will soon be drying up.

The irony is the only people who can get the massive discounts are Cash/FTB are the people who can't afford it or the sensible or frugal who would not like to risk their deposit in such a unsettled period (which is sensible to me, but I hate having vast cash in the bank as I am generally a untrusting person but that is a different story and just a reflection on my own mental state:D )

It is a very bizarre market at the moment the people want to move can’t and the ones who want to buy (more to the point can) won’t (no dig at people waiting for the bottom as I understand why you want to wait)

mewbie_2

Raffles99 wrote: »

This is true. The Dresdner note also points out that "virtually all forthcoming developments mothballed". Of course, once you've started building a tower block you are highly likely to finish it, so stock will continue to come onto the market for another year or so, but stocks of new houses will soon be drying up.

So you think it's a case of buy now while stocks last? Well, it's a theory, but not one, obviously, that I agree with. You want a reason as well? Ok...

1. Mortage availability. Even for those who are completely clueless about the market there is the requirement to have a deposit and a reasonable income multiple. Apart from the fact prices are falling, this alone almost completely stops the market. There is no way in at the bottom for FTB's. Therefore no ladder. Remember that one reason the bubble existed so long was self cert, 10 times income, 125% loans. Try getting one now. ( believe me I've tried, thought I'd get into BTL - sounds so good)

2. Sentiment. Has changed, finally. Most people believe prices will drop further. Q. If you think something will be cheaper next month do you buy now, or wait?

3. Other stuff. I am scared of losing my job. You are scared. We are all scared. Is now the right time to commit hundreds of thousands of pounds to your biggest life purchase?

Realy

mewbie wrote: »

So you think it's a case of buy now while stocks last? Well, it's a theory, but not one, obviously, that I agree with. You want a reason as well? Ok...



2. Sentiment. Has changed, finally. Most people believe prices will drop further. Q. If you think something will be cheaper next month do you buy now, or wait?

quote]

Dont get me wrong all you points are compleatly valid.

But sentiment is not the best way to make a financial based decision as you will know the purchases made a year ago are the people now in Negative equity (providing they were FTB with 10% deposit). They purchased on sentiment.
If you had to buy now you need to think outside of the usual reasons and make a staggering deal that could cover the possibility of negative equity in your own eyes.
Also if it was the wrong decision you would also have to be prepared to live with it.

Raffles99

mewbie wrote: »

So you think it's a case of buy now while stocks last? Well, it's a theory, but not one, obviously, that I agree with.

Yes, but only if you want a brand new, not-previously-lived-in, house. Obviously if you don't mind second-hand then you'd be better off waiting another year, but you simply won't find many new houses available in 12 months.

obsessed_saver

For a new build, 43% drop sounds about right. They just have to drop their prices countrywide and the market will move again.

pickles110564

Raffles99 wrote: »

Yes, but only if you want a brand new, not-previously-lived-in, house. Obviously if you don't mind second-hand then you'd be better off waiting another year, but you simply won't find many new houses available in 12 months.

The amount of building overpriced new flats went through the roof over the last couple of years and there are more hutches out there than people that can afford to buy them, I would stake my mortgage on the fact that you will still be able to buy at knocked down prices brand new empty flats for several years to come.

Raffles99

pickles110564 wrote: »

The amount of building overpriced new flats went through the roof over the last couple of years and there are more hutches out there than people that can afford to buy them, I would stake my mortgage on the fact that you will still be able to buy at knocked down prices brand new empty flats for several years to come.

I was talking about houses (the things with stairs) not flats ....