The future of B&B and BTL

chucky

mewbie wrote: »

And from your links...

"But he added that the strong demand for rented accommodation was not driving up rents, as the demand was being met by supply from sellers who had opted to let their home rather than accept a lower price for it in the current market"

So rents static at best, and capital values falling. Interesting times indeed.

yes very interesting - capital values would not be too important until you need the capital

i'm not saying that things are good or it's the right time to BTL but just wanted to add some context to the argument that BTLers would be struggling which I don't think is the case. well not for the sensible ones anyway and it's probably not what people want to hear.

From one of the links too:

"The group said it saw "continuous, strengthening growth" in rental demand during 2008, far beyond normal seasonal fluctuations.

Overall, the number of people signing rental agreements between January and August was up 45% compared with the same period of 2007.

Your Move said the rise in demand was the strongest for decades, and attributed it to people delaying buying a property due to falling house prices, while those who still wanted to go ahead with a purchase were struggling to get a mortgage due to the large deposits lenders are demanding."

IveSeenTheLight

carolt wrote: »

Whilst I agree that selling off council housing has been part of the problem, the idea that all the renters (a) choose renting for any reasons other than ludicrously high house prices (b) if prices fell, would choose to stay renting and be unable/unwilling to buy - is patently nonsense.

I agree that not ALL renters would choose to rent in other circumstances. It is as you say patently wrong.
Similarly saying that ALL renters would buy if prices fell is also patently wrong. Why isn't there a higher owner occupancy rate throughout Europe?

I rent out two properties: -
One is to an expat over to the UK on secondment and not wishing to buy.
The other was considering buying, but he is in a job role which requires him to move on now every three to four years.
The world is becoming more global and there is a group of people who do not wish to place roots as they move location far more often.
Another group of historical renters called students, who rent for 3 - 5 years in an area before moving on.
There is also a group of people that don't meet mortgage criteria and therefore cannot buy, even if prices were lower.

carolt wrote: »

I think the mantra 'renters want to rent' is what BTL landlords tell themselves at night to help them sleep. That doesn't make it true.

The mantra I tell myself is that if there is a sufficient rental market, then I rent out my properties.
If the rental market was to change then I would consider the properties againas a rental business

IveSeenTheLight

!!!!!!? wrote: »

(1) ... Should boost BTL but only in student areas.

Soagreed, student areas contribute to a good rental market

!!!!!!? wrote: »

(2) There's evidence to suggest that lots of recent economic migrants are now heading home or to greener pastures and even through the boom years there was huge emigration of natives which offset a lot of the immigration. Emigration is likely to increase in a nasty recession and immigration is tailing off fast.

Is there any facts and figures for this?
In the North East of Scotland I'm hereing that they are still there and not returning.
On a recent visit back there, almost every retail place I visited had someone with a East European accent.
I've even heard of a Polish dentist setting up and taking on NHS patients.
When did you last hear of a dentist taking on NHS....... incredible

!!!!!!? wrote: »

((3) An ageing population means less younger people and kids which indicates a shrinking native population. Which means longer term there will be downward pressure on housing demand.

Did he mean the average age is increasing or that people are living longer. If people are living longer then that means a greater need for housing.
In fact the government have strategies to do with ageing population and housing, showing a requirement for more houses
http://ezinearticles.com/?New-Housing-For-UK-Aging-Population&id=1184986
If its because you believe the average age is older then I recently read about a mini baby boom in 2008. Apparently fertility is the highest since 1980.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2007/jun/07/health.medicineandhealth

!!!!!!? wrote: »

(4) I can't imagine that divorce rates are going to have that much of an impact on demand for houses. There are plenty of flats to rent for the dislocated ex-husband.

First you say not a big impact on demand for housing, then you say there are plenty of flats for rent for the husbands.
If every divorce means that where two people had 1 property and now they have 2, then property demand increases surely either for rent or purchase.

MissMoneypenny

chucky wrote: »

yes very interesting - capital values would not be too important until you need the capital

i'm not saying that things are good or it's the right time to BTL but just wanted to add some context to the argument that BTLers would be struggling which I don't think is the case. well not for the sensible ones anyway and it's probably not what people want to hear.

From one of the links too:

"The group said it saw "continuous, strengthening growth" in rental demand during 2008, far beyond normal seasonal fluctuations.

Overall, the number of people signing rental agreements between January and August was up 45% compared with the same period of 2007.

Your Move said the rise in demand was the strongest for decades, and attributed it to people delaying buying a property due to falling house prices, while those who still wanted to go ahead with a purchase were struggling to get a mortgage due to the large deposits lenders are demanding."

From that link you are talking about, they also said:-
"But he added that the strong demand for rented accommodation was not driving up rents, as the demand was being met by supply from sellers who had opted to let their home rather than accept a lower price for it in the current market."
http://ukpress.google.com/article/ALeqM5in37WTIFqq6YPAl8sFWrRG3I4lSA

From your other links:-

"David Newnes, managing director of Your Move, said: "Mortgages are hard to come by and would-be buyers are flooding the rental sector. If you can’t get the finance to buy a house, you’re forced to rent.”

However, he added the rush to renting is not pushing up rents.

"Tenants are benefiting from unprecedented choice as well as competitive rent," Mr Newnes said.

"We might expect the huge increases in demand for rental property to have driven up rents. But demand is being met by supply - sellers who won’t accept depressed prices put their homes up for rent instead.""
http://www.myfinances.co.uk/news/mortgages/buy-let-mortgages/rental-demand-grows-65-as-mortgage-approvals-fall-$1241818.htm


"Mr Newnes added: "We might expect the huge increases in demand for rental property to have driven up rents. But demand is being met by supply - sellers who won't accept depressed prices put their homes up for rent instead. Tenants are benefiting from unprecedented choice as well as competitive rents."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/borrowing/mortgages/3056278/Rental-demand-soars-65-per-cent.html

IveSeenTheLight

MissMoneypenny wrote: »

From that link you are talking about, they also said:-
"But he added that the strong demand for rented accommodation was not driving up rents, as the demand was being met by supply from sellers who had opted to let their home rather than accept a lower price for it in the current market."
http://ukpress.google.com/article/ALeqM5in37WTIFqq6YPAl8sFWrRG3I4lSA

From your other links:-

"David Newnes, managing director of Your Move, said: "Mortgages are hard to come by and would-be buyers are flooding the rental sector. If you can’t get the finance to buy a house, you’re forced to rent.”

However, he added the rush to renting is not pushing up rents.

"Tenants are benefiting from unprecedented choice as well as competitive rent," Mr Newnes said.

"We might expect the huge increases in demand for rental property to have driven up rents. But demand is being met by supply - sellers who won’t accept depressed prices put their homes up for rent instead.""
http://www.myfinances.co.uk/news/mortgages/buy-let-mortgages/rental-demand-grows-65-as-mortgage-approvals-fall-$1241818.htm


"Mr Newnes added: "We might expect the huge increases in demand for rental property to have driven up rents. But demand is being met by supply - sellers who won't accept depressed prices put their homes up for rent instead. Tenants are benefiting from unprecedented choice as well as competitive rents."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/borrowing/mortgages/3056278/Rental-demand-soars-65-per-cent.html

I think that each area can be different.
While rents in some areas are stagnant or falling, I know in Aberdeen they are rising.
I see a 3 bed property being rented out for the same price as I rented out my 4 bed property on the same street in Jan 2007

MissMoneypenny

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

When did you last hear of a dentist taking on NHS....... incredible

I found an NHS dentist easily when I returned to the SE last year

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

If every divorce means that where two people had 1 property and now they have 2, then property demand increases surely either for rent or purchase.

If you look on some of the other boards, it seems a lot of breakup of marriages do not need two properties as one of the partners seems to be moving in with a new partner.

leviathan

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Is there any facts and figures for this?
In the North East of Scotland I'm hereing that they are still there and not returning.
On a recent visit back there, almost every retail place I visited had someone with a East European accent.

From first hand experience (involvement with the community) I know a lot of Polish people are departing for back home, but those are the ones who came over with qualifications (eg teachers!), ended up working in restaurants but did their stint and earned a small pile and are now going back to continue with their lives.

Often they are being replaced with younger people who had no prospects at home other than those they will get over here but for more money, but hear from freinds and relatives what it's like over here and mhave support mechanisms in place.
The previous workers were more interested in becoming part of british society, I find many more of the new people want to live in a home from home environemnt. Much like the Chippy & Brit pub in Menorca.

I don't find it dwindling, merely that we are getting a less well educated foreign workforce.

mewbie_2

MissMoneypenny wrote: »

If you look on some of the other boards, it seems a lot of breakup of marriages do not need two properties as one of the partners seems to be moving in with a new partner.

And I have it on good authority (the internet), that at least 73.4% of divorcees are now joining communes, meaning even less housing is required. For instance it is well known that Fathers for Justice mainly live together in a gay enclave not far from the 'heath'.

IveSeenTheLight

MissMoneypenny wrote: »

I found an NHS dentist easily when I returned to the SE last year

I'm truly glad for you.
As we pay NI, this should be available for all, although it wasn't available in Aberdeen for a good number of years AFAIK.
I also recall saying reports of people cuieng at new dentist to get onto a limited NHS list in recent years.

MissMoneypenny wrote: »

If you look on some of the other boards, it seems a lot of breakup of marriages do not need two properties as one of the partners seems to be moving in with a new partner.

I'm not trying to imply they all do and as you say, moving in with another partner can happen and may be the reason for the break up inthe first place. I'm sure if you looked deeper, you could also see that not all of these partnerships continue and thus there is another move on

chucky

agreed and don't really have control over what the journalist report - i was just trying to get context to the argument that not all BTLers would be in trouble.

as you know the quotes like many links and articles on this forum are written by journalist who will take and 'manipulate' information to suit their report/story